Forecasting technology diffusion: a new generalisation of the logistic model

The present research proposes a new generalisation of the logistic model aiming at technology diffusion forecasting. Regarding criticisms and failures reported in the literature to apply logistic function for long-term forecasting, in our work we focused on short-term accuracy of forecast. To formulate the model, based on mathematical approximation, at first the differential equation governing the diffusion process is found and then by solving the derived differential equation, the forecast function is obtained. In all steps, mathematical tools from numerical analysis are used. We compared the New Generalized Logistic Model with eight of the most renowned models in the literature. The model led to more accurate fits and forecasts than those obtained from other models we applied for comparison.     

The economics term paper as an effective teaching tool: Another approach

Summary and conclusion Combining the term paper with the format of a professional conference session provided a learning experience with a lasting positive impact. Students' role playing as chairperson, presenters, and discussants helped to enhance the learning process. Students were motivated go the extra mile not only for peer approval but also because of the impact on their final grade. This approach also helped to develop their oral and written communications skills. These skills are equally relevant for students planning academic and business careers.The presenter-discussant format encouraged critical thinking and provided students with immediate feedback on the success of their efforts. Students who have experienced the process are more knowledgeable about their topic. Most importantly, they are better prepared to succeed at future research projects on other topics.     

Hidden risks of hedge accounting in financial institutions: A study of Franklin Savings Association

The hedge accounting standards for financial institutions stipulated in SFAS No. 80 impose ambiguous guidelines whose enforcement can produce detrimental effects on the financial condition of institutions. Combining these standards with the interpretive authority of regulatory agencies can subject institutions to regulatory risk-the risk of an adverse regulatory ruling resulting from disparate interpretations of the accounting standards. The accounting regulations specified in SFAS No. 80 permit financial institutions to defer derivative-contract losses over the life of the underlying asset or liability. If the hedge designation is misused, however, the capital position of the institution may potentially be misstated prior to maturity of the derivative contracts. Further, when a hedging program goes awry, the current hedge accounting standards may actually encourage the shift to what is actually a speculation program by permitting a larger asset base on which to “earn back” a portion of the hedging losses. Thus, institutional programs initially designed to mitigate interest-rate risk can instead become risk-increasing, separate profit centers. Events leading to the RTC conservatorship of Franklin Savings Association are used to illustrate the opportunities and regulatory threats inherent in hedge accounting. Subsequent analysis indicates that similar ordeals could be avoided by a clarification of hedge accounting standards, the consistent application of standards by regulators, or by increasing capital requirements for those institutions that use derivatives as separate profit centers as opposed to hedging risk exposures.     

Monopoly and the problem of the economists

By any measure economists have played increasingly prominent roles in antitrust policy making, at least since the early 1970s. Indeed, the approach to the analysis of public policy toward business pioneered by Chicago school economists dominates the academic literature nowadays. According to the Chicago school's adherents, their insistence that antitrust be examined through the lens of price theory should have produced discernably ‘better’ (read pro-consumer) laws and ‘better’ law enforcement. This paper contends that economists have in fact not had a positive influence on antitrust policy, but have instead actively contributed to its use as a way of subverting competitive market forces.     

Banknotes And Economic Growth

Modern paper currency contributes little to productive investment. This shortcoming is not inherent to paper money. It stems from the fact that currency today is monopolistically supplied by public monetary authorities that are poor intermediaries. Commercial banknotes may, in contrast, support efficient intermediation, just as private bank deposits do. We demonstrate this advantage in an endogenous growth model, and use the model to simulate, for a sample of developing countries, steady‐state growth‐rate gains from various degrees of banknote deregulation. The simulated gains are generally large compared with those from conventional forms of financial liberalization.     

Tax Limits and Housing Markets: Some Evidence at the State Level

Property tax limitations, as well as other tax and expenditure restrictions on state and local governments in the United States, date back to the late 19th century. A surge in property tax limitation legislation occurred in the late 1970s and early 1980s, and its effects on government revenue, school financing and educational quality have been studied extensively. However, there is surprisingly little literature on how property tax limits affect housing markets. For the first time, we examine the impacts of property tax limitations on housing growth, in addition to their impacts on housing prices. Using state‐level data over 23 years, we find that property tax limits increase housing prices (indexes) by approximately 2%. Property tax limits appear to have little impact on the growth in the housing stock, but education spending limits reduce the number of building permits by over 6%. Our indirect evidence suggests that the number of housing units may grow when property tax limits are accompanied by increases in other own‐source revenues to state government.     

Strategic implications of the Soviet‐North Korean alliance

Abstract

Globalization is commonly defined as a strict economic path by most previous works, but it is really a fuzzy concept with unrestrained dimensions. While the ideological location of an incumbent political party is a powerful predictor of its policy position, the role of a political party in the globalization-growth nexus has never been fully empirically investigated. By applying Pedroni's panel cointegration technique instead of a time-series or traditional panel data approach, this paper aims to empirically re-examine the co-movement and the causal relationship among economic growth, the overall globalization index, and its three main dimensions—economic, social, as well as political integrations—by using panel data for 23 Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) countries for 1970 to 2006. Certainly, the political party variable is taken into account as the advanced test is promoted, and we finally discover that all variables move together in the long run. Based on the results of the panel causality test, though the evidence of short-run causality is very weak, it does show long-run unidirectional causality running from the overall index of globalization, economic globalization, and social globalization to growth. Finally, the critical role of the political party is deeply discussed in relation with our results.     

Investing in Health: A Macroeconomic Exploration of Short-Run and Long-Run Trade-Offs

This paper aims to unravel the competing effects of health investment. It explores, both analytically and numerically, the equilibrium shift and transitional dynamics after a one-time policy of health investment. We find that such a policy improves health status in the long run, but harms economic growth in both the short- and long-term. The relative sizes of these competing effects depend on the specific health parameters. Within the plausible range for the value of health relative to consumption, households gain welfare in the long run as long as the effectiveness of labor in health production is large. The expanded health sector policy makes households worse off only if labor is rather unproductive in producing health and if households value health relatively little. Nevertheless, the findings challenge the policy recommendations of the World Bank (1993) and World Health Organization (2001) in that good health does not necessarily increase the productivity of workers and the economic growth rate. We hope that the relative simplicity of our model, compared to the existing theoretical literature, can help close the gap between formal academic work on this topic and actual debates among policy makers in both developed and developing countries.