The origins of terrorism: Cross-country estimates of socio-economic determinants of terrorism

Prior research has concluded that socio-economic development does not significantly affect terrorism. We take an alternative view. First, we note that a country's socio-economic circumstances affect terrorists' behavior through terrorism's opportunity costs. We argue that this reasoning also holds for the case of supreme value terrorism. Then, we run a series of negative binomial regressions for 110 countries between 1971 and 2007 to test the hypothesis that poor socio-economic development is conducive to terrorism. We find that socio-economic variables indeed matter to terrorism, contrary to other results. Our findings imply that countries can benefit from economic development and growth in terms of a reduction in terrorism.     

The effects of the monetary policy regime shift to inflation targeting on the real interest rate in the United Kingdom

This paper studies the effects of the monetary policy regime shift to inflation targeting on the stochastic properties of the real interest rate in the U.K. The empirical analysis suggests a constant mean of the real interest rate that shifts with the monetary policy regime change to inflation targeting in October 1992. The mean-reverting level of the real interest rate has decreased from 5.1% to 2.3% per annum with the change in monetary policy to inflation targeting. In addition, the shift in monetary policy regime to inflation targeting has reduced the volatility of the real interest rate and increased the persistence of real interest rate deviations from the mean. The results suggest that the central bank can affect the stochastic properties of the real interest rate through the choice of monetary policy regime over a long period of time.     

An economic crisis?

According to estimates made by several German economic research institutes, economic growth will slow down also in the coming year. For the first half of 1967 an increase in terms of money by 5% and in real value by 2% is expected. As compared with growth rates in former years this growth is considered a very moderate one. After almost twenty years of uninterrupted prosperity this easing of the cyclical conditions is stirring up in many quarters the deep-rooted fear of an “economic crisis”. Is the Federal Republic of Germany really headed for an economic collapse? To clear up this problem INTERECONOMICS has asked Professor Dr Andreas Predohl, the German Overseas Institute, Hamburg, and Dr Hans-Jurgen Schmahl, the Hamburg Institute for International Economics, Hamburg, for their opinion.     

Market Coupling and the CWE Project

The article copes with the ongoing effort to establish implicit auctions to allocate transmission capacity on cross-border interconnectors in the power grid. By the means of implicit auctions (in contrast to explicit auctions), cross-border capacities are included in the clearing of local power exchanges. Concerning the day ahead auction, ‘market coupling’ plays an important role. Market coupling connects (formerly often national) electricity markets, simplifying cross-border trade. One of the main drivers of market coupling projects is the pursuit of European market integration i.e. allowing for convenient cross-border trade. The other reason is the perception that explicit auctions of transmission capacity (in addition to energy auctions which are often performed later) do sometimes lead to sub-optimal results. The objective function of market coupling is the maximisation of total welfare of all connected markets. Further to the explanation of different market coupling models (also regarding capacity calculation), the current development in Europe is wrapped up—including the CWE market coupling (Central Western Europe) project. The CWE market coupling is announced to start in fall 2010, coupling the day-ahead electricity markets of Belgium, France, Germany, Luxembourg and the Netherlands.     

An interest rate peg might be better than you think

Active interest rate policy is frequently recommended based on its merits in reducing macroeconomic volatility and being a simple device. Yet, it might be outperformed by an even simpler policy. A peg can be welfare-enhancing and can uniquely be implemented.