Internationale Paul-Felix-Lazarsfeld-Professur an der Human- und Sozialwissenschaftlichen Fakultät der Universität Wien eingerichtet

Ohne Zusammenfassung     

Matthias Karmasin an die Universität Klagenfurt berufen

Ohne Zusammenfassung     

Zur Lage der Kommunikationswissenschaft und ihrer Fachgesellschaft. Ergebnisse der DGPuK-Mitgliederbefragung 2003

Like other broad disciplines in the media/communications field, communication science is characterized by rapid growth and increasing diversity and hence confusion. That also affects the discipline’s scholarly associations. So the German Association for Communication Science (Deutsche Gesellschaft für Publizistik- und Kommunikationswissenschaft, DGPuK), the largest German-speaking association in this field, conducted a survey among its members in early 2003. This article reports on the design and findings of this study, focusing on the perception and evaluation of the association and on the scholarly orientations (theoretic perspectives and methodologies) of its members. Various subgroups within the DGPuK diverge in their positions and opinions. This applies in particular to the less well represented research traditions and subdisciplines (as compared to the social-scientific mainstream), which tend to view the DGPuK as one-sided. Deviations also show for professionals working outside the academic field (as compared to DGPuK members from universities) and in part for older members and women. The findings not only give an up-to-date picture of the state of the DGPuK but also shed light on the situation and development of the discipline as a whole.     

Öffentliche Meinung als Online-Diskurs – ein neuer empirischer Zugang

The paper introduces a new empirical approach for measuring public opinion in the Internet: In a first step, all web pages containing relevant messages dealing with a specific issue are retrieved with a search engine. The pages are then content-analyzed in a second step. To answer the theoretical question of which kind of public opinion is registered by applying this method, the two basic paradigms of public opinion, which have hardly ever been connected so far, are discussed: public opinion as discourse and public opinion as measured by surveys. For the first time, both paradigms can be empirically compared by using a survey on the one hand, and the search engine based content analysis of web pages on the other. We conducted such a comparison for the issue of a smoking ban in restaurants, which was heavily discussed in Germany in 2007. The results reveal some fascinating parallels between both data sets and some differences, which are quite well in line with the theoretical assumptions. The paper finishes with some considerations on the theoretical and empirical capabilities of the approach.     

Time Inhomogeneous Multiple Volatility Modeling

Price variations at speculative markets exhibit positive autocorrelationand cross correlation. Due to large parameter spaces necessaryfor joint modeling of variances and covariances, multivariateparametric volatility models become easily intractable in practice.We propose an adaptive procedure that identifies periods ofsecond-order homogeneity for each moment in time. To overcomethe high dimensionality of the problem we transform the multivariateseries into a set of univariate processes. We discuss thoroughlythe implementation of the adaptive technique. Theoretical andMonte Carlo results are given. We provide two applications ofthe new method. For a bivariate exchange rate series we comparethe multivariate GARCH approach with our method and find thelatter to be more in line with the underlying assumption ofindependently distributed innovations. Analyzing a 23-dimensionalvector of asset returns we underscore the case for adaptivemodeling in high-dimensional systems.     

Equal sacrifice and fair burden-sharing in a public goods economy

Applying a willingness-to-pay approach known from contingent valuation in environmental economics, we develop an ordinally based measure for the size of individual sacrifice that is connected with an agent’s contribution to a public good. We construct a selection mechanism that picks the unique efficient solution among all allocations that have an equal sacrifice as defined in this way. We show that the solution thus obtained corresponds to Moulin’s egalitarian equivalent allocation, conforms to both the ability-to-pay and the benefit principles, and has much in common with the Lindahl equilibrium.      

On the structure and estimation of hierarchical Archimedean copulas

In this paper we provide a method for estimating multivariate distributions defined through hierarchical Archimedean copulas. In general, the true structure of the hierarchy is unknown, but we develop a computationally efficient technique to determine it from the data. For this purpose we introduce a hierarchical estimation procedure for the parameters and provide an asymptotic analysis. We consider both parametric and nonparametric estimation of the marginal distributions. A simulation study and an empirical application show the effectiveness of the grouping procedure in the sense of structure selection.     

ON ACCURACY AND PRECISION IN STATISTICAL ESTIMATES

In the exact sciences one distinguishes between the exactness of the estimate of a quantity, or the ‘accuracy’, and the exactness of the symbolic representation of the estimate, its ‘precision’. The significant-digits rule, the subject of the most elementary education in these disciplines, establishes a rough correlation between accuracy and precision. It is shown that many agricultural economists and statisticians are unsure about the proper representation of accuracy in writing. The accuracy of one particular statistic, net farm income in Canada, has been estimated using Theil's RMSE statistic. The results suggest that net farm income should be written with two or three digits only according to the significant-digits rule. The author recommends that the significant-digits rule generally be followed. Economy in communication and greater awareness of the nature and limitation of the empirical basis of our knowledge would be gained. Dans les sciences exactes une distinction précise est fait entre 1'exactitude de la mesure d'une quantité et la précision de la représentation symbolique de cette mesure. La règie des chiffres signicatifs, le sujet de l'enseignement le plus élémentaire en les sciences naturelles, établit une corrélation approximatif entre l'exactitude de la mesure et la précision de la représentation. Les économistes et les statisticiens rurales semblent être incertains sur la représentation de l'exactitude de la mesure das la communication écrite. L'exactitude d'un devis particulier - la revenu net agricole canadien - a été estimé en utilisant la statistique RMEC (la racine de la moyenne de l'erreur carré) de THEIL. Les resultats suggerent que cette statistique devrait être écrit avec seulement deux ou trois chiffres, suivant la règie des chiffres signicatifs, au lieu de l'écrire avec sept chiffres d'après I'usage courant. l'auteur voudrait conseiller que, à I-avenir, la règie des chiffres signicatifs soit utilisé dans toutes les publications de manière à encourager l'économie dans la communication et une conscience professionnelle plus grand de la nature des limitations de la base empirique de notre connaissance.