对盈余管理的再认识

盈余管理普遍存在,主要原因是企业管理层有强烈的追求与预先制定的盈余目标相一致的动机以及盈余结果的不确定性。会计政策和会计事项处理方法的可选择性导致没有绝对"真实"的盈余数据,只有相对合理的盈余结果。盈余管理具有合法性,在会计准则(或制度)允许的范围内进行正当的盈余管理是合乎道德的行为,目的是为使企业价值最大化,帮助报告使用者更好地理解公司业绩。盈余管理又具有秘密性,而这种秘密行为为社会所迫;消除盈余管理是不现实的。     

HRM in dynamic environments: Exploitative,exploratory, and ambidextrous HR architectures

Abstract

The current economic crisis has brought to the fore the need for firms to deal with ambiguity and complexity. Hence, firms need a specific balance between exploration and exploitation in order to keep pace with varying and changing environmental conditions. Hitherto, there is limited research that has examined the nexus of HR architectures, ambidexterity, and environmental dynamics. In this conceptual paper we ask: How do HR architectures serve as a means of balancing exploitative and exploratory learning in different dynamic environments? We explain how exploratory, exploitative, and ambidextrous HR architectures with their embedded HRM systems on the business unit level enable organizations to meet different environmental requirements. Thus, firms in which heterogeneous demands for flexibility and for innovation co-exist need to develop internally differentiated HR architectures. In particular, we elucidate how critical the organization’s ability is to connect different HRM systems to create an ambidextrous HR architecture to find an appropriate balance between exploration and exploitation.     

On the structure and estimation of hierarchical Archimedean copulas

In this paper we provide a method for estimating multivariate distributions defined through hierarchical Archimedean copulas. In general, the true structure of the hierarchy is unknown, but we develop a computationally efficient technique to determine it from the data. For this purpose we introduce a hierarchical estimation procedure for the parameters and provide an asymptotic analysis. We consider both parametric and nonparametric estimation of the marginal distributions. A simulation study and an empirical application show the effectiveness of the grouping procedure in the sense of structure selection.     

Evaluating change in European industrial relations: research evidence on trends at organizational level

This paper uses evidence from organizations with more than 200 employees in several countries across Europe to explore the proposition that industrial relations in Europe is becoming more convergent around a non-union HRM model. The evidence indicates that, although there are some similar moves taking place, national patterns remain distinctive, the IR/HRM distinction may not be sustainable in Europe and there are significant elements of continuity in industrial relations in Europe alongside the changes that are taking place.     

How to control a chaotic economy?

An economic system which exhibits chaotic behaviour has been stabilized on various periodic orbits by use of the Ott-Grebogi-Yorke method. This procedure has been recently applied to controlling chaotic phenomena in physical, chemical and biological systems. We adopt this method successfully for Feichtinger's generic model of two competing firms with asymmetrical investment strategies. We show that the application of this control method to the particular economic process considered brings a substantial advantage: one can easily switch from a chaotic trajectory to a regular periodic orbit and simultaneously improve the system's economic properties. Numerical simulations are presented in order to illustrate the effectiveness of the whole procedure.The work was supported by the Alexander von Humboldt-Stiftung and by the Polish National Council (KBN) Grant No 2 P302 038 04.     

资本主义将如何终结?

当今资本主义正处在二战结束以来最严峻的形势之中。经济增长率持续下降,国家整体负债程度持续上升,收入与财富分配的不平等持续加剧。本文认为,目前没有力量能够扭转经济增长、金融稳定和社会平等的恶化趋势并终结三者之间的相互强化。现在到了重新思考资本主义作为一种有始有终的历史现象的时候。资本主义终结将是资本主义由于其自身的原因而慢性衰败的过程。资本主义由于消灭了它的对立面而濒于灭亡。为了阐述这一观点,本文说明了当今发达资本主义所面临着五种系统性混乱:停滞、寡头再分配、掠夺公共资源、腐败和全球无政府状态。     

斯图加特的经济：在未来也要领先

新千年伊始 ,斯图加特市面临新的挑战。经济全球化的迅速到来正影响我们所有人在２１世纪的生活。对这种挑战必须要充分地说明 ,要保持领先 ,最迫切需要的是行动。斯图加特市和斯图加特地区有优越的条件来迎接挑战 ,其明显的潜力需要挖掘和调动。斯图加特不仅是多国著名公司的所在地 ,同时还是它们的家园。例如 :戴姆勒———克莱斯勒、Ｐｏｒｓｃｈｅ、Ｂｏｓｃｈ、ＩＢＭ和ＡｌｃａｔｅｌＳＥＬ。斯图加特地区传统的实力是ＳＭＥｓ ,他众多的产品能迅速而灵活地适应全球市场需求。虽然斯图加特地区经济主要集中在动力和机械工程上 ,但他仍…     

Robust min–max portfolio strategies for rival forecast and risk scenarios

We consider an extension of the Markowitz mean–variance optimization framework to multiple return and risk scenarios. It is well known that asset return forecasts and risk estimates are inherently inaccurate. The method proposed provides a means for considering rival representations of the future. The optimal portfolio is computed, simultaneously with the worst case, to take account of all rival scenarios. This is a min-max strategy which is essentially equivalent to a robust pooling of the scenarios. Robustness is ensured by the noninferiority of min–max. For example, a basic worst-case optimal return is guaranteed in view of multiple return scenarios. If robustness happens to have too high a cost, guided by the min–max pooling, it is also possible to explore other pooling alternatives. A min–max algorithm is used to solve the problem and illustrate the robust character of min–max with return and risk scenarios. We study the properties of the min–max risk–return frontier and compare with the potentially suboptimal worst-case where the investment strategy and the worst case are computed separately.