“The Time of Recovery and the Maximum Severity of Ruin in a Sparre Andersen Model,” Shuanming Li,October 2008

Abstract

In a first-party recovery scheme for automobile property damage, the first-party insurer compensates not-at-fault vehicular damage. In this scheme, adjusters may not have the incentive to assign liability when the driver is, in fact, at fault for the accident. This is due to adjusters not having to coordinate with a third-party adjuster, and, for insureds that carry collision coverage, the assignment of fault does not appreciably affect the compensation paid out. This in turn reduces the effectiveness of the experience-rating component of the insurance premium. Empirical evidence that supports the presence of incorrect fault assignment is provided. A stochastic model of experience rating analyzing the impact of incorrect fault assignment on driving record classes confirms that low-risk insureds pay more for insurance than if fault was correctly assigned.     

论董事会在银行风险管理中的主导作用

当前,全球金融市场危机频发、风险剧增,我国商业银行能否经得起新一轮的考验和冲击．关键在于能否切实提高风险管理能力。银行必须从源头抓起,彻底转变公司治理结构,完善公司治理机制,特别要发挥好董事会的主导作用,从根本上解决风险控制的源动力问题。围绕这一问题,本文探讨了董事会在商业银行风险管理中的战略定位、主要职责、发挥作用的条件以及应采取的基本策略。     

广东县域经济发展的约束与突破

广东县域经济总体上相对滞后于浙江、江苏和山东,滞后的重要原因在于县域经济的集聚效应大于扩散效应,外源式经济模式发展到一定阶段后其示范效应小于挤出效应,县域经济内源式发展模式要受到外源式模式的冲击。发展广东县域经济,要突破资金动员瓶颈和产业结构调整乏力的制肘,制度创新是首要选择。     

基于模块化核心的流程银行变革研究

模块化管理是当前国际银行变革与发展的主流模式,模块化以网络化的组织形式,实现了各种资源在银行内部、银行与外部经济组织之间的有效整合。模块化体现了客户导向、市场观念和成本的最小化等基本管理理念。模块化应用到流程银行建设是中国金融界的全新经营管理视角和新的尝试,既借鉴了美国等企业和银行的成功经验,又为了解决中国银行业突出存在的问题——部门银行。中国目前的银行开始实行了一些流程银行方面的初步探索,但认识还不清晰,措施还不完善,变革成效还不明显,未来的变革之路还很长。流程银行的模块化研究很好的回答了这一系列的管理问题,指明了中国商业银行未来"流程银行"建设的目标和方向。     

失业者失业持续期影响因素分析——以长春市失业人员为例

依据作为老工业城市的长春市失业者的样本数据,应用Cox 比例风险回归模型来分析影响失业者失业持续期的因素.可以发现,性别、搜寻工作途径、对新工作的要求、保留工资数等因素对失业持续期的影响都是不显著的;而较高文化程度、家庭中需要抚养人口数、年龄是保护因素,即维持失业者失业状态的因素.影响程度从大到小依次排列为较高的文化程度、家庭中需要抚养的人口数、年龄;身体状况、工作经验、原工作单位性质是危险因素,即促使再就业发生的因素,这三个因素对失业持续期的影响程度从大到小依次为失业者的身体状况、原单位的工作性质、工作经验.     

对美国次贷危机的深层思考

本文首先揭示了次贷危机的三大特征,然后分析次贷危机对金融业所造成的损失,接下来分析次贷危机的传导机制和对美国经济的整体影响。我们从周期及其结构的角度上作出谨慎的分析,最后提出了对中国银行业的启示和相关建议。     

Foreclosure,REO, and Market Sales in Residential Real Estate

Assessment of lender and third-party bidder acquired properties at foreclosure auction is provided. Properties acquired at foreclosure auction by third-party bidders transact at a discount to lender dispositions of real estate owned (REO) properties. The discount reflects a reduction in costs associated with lender owned (REO) dispositions and uncertainty faced by third-party bidders. Moreover, there is a ranking in transaction prices among initial purchases by third-party bidders at foreclosure auction, REO sales, non-distressed property sales and the subsequent sales of third-party bidder acquired properties. Third-party bidder auction prices are below REO sale prices, which are below non-distressed property sale prices, which are below the subsequent sale prices of third-party bidder acquired properties. The price spacing by cohort is logical, intuitive and economically justified in a market with rational participants. Implications are also apparent for the measurement of price changes, net sale proceeds and returns to residential real estate.     

Banking deregulation and corporate tax avoidance

We investigate whether tax avoidance substitutes for external financing. We exploit interstate banking deregulation as a quasi-external shock to examine whether...     

Conflicts of interest and agent heterogeneity in buyer brokerage

This article investigates the incentives of agents working with buyers (buying agents) under the fixed percentage commission system and the implications on housing market outcomes. Our model shows that the absence of a binding contract creates a risk of losing clients for buying agents, which helps mitigate the conflict of interest between buying agents and their clients. Both the buying agent's prediction accuracy regarding their client's reservation prices and the level of tolerance given by the buyer to the buying agent affect the binding force. Results from simulations and empirical analyses using house transactions in Canada support our model predictions.     

私募股权投资并购退出模式及策略分析

私募股权投资并购退出是当前国内逐渐兴起的新趋势,既符合市场经济由自由竞争发展到集中整合阶段的客观需求,又具有优化产业结构的时代使命。但并购退出在国内总体还处于萌芽阶段,进一步的发展空间还受到不少限制,本文尝试探索符合国内并购退出的几种模式,并有针对性地提出了发展并购退出的初步策略与建议。