Impact of China-ASEAN Free Trade Area on China＇s International Agricultural Trade and Its Regional Development

This study aims to examine the impact of the China‐ASEAN Free Trade Area (CAFTA) on China's international agricultural trade and its regional agricultural development, using the Global Trade Analysis Project model and the China Agricultural Decision Support System. Our analysis showed that: (i) CAFTA will improve resource allocation efficiencies for both China and ASEAN and will promote bilateral agricultural trade and, hence, will have positive effects on the economic development of both sides; (ii) CAFTA will accelerate China's export of the agricultural commodities in which it has comparative advantages, such as vegetables, wheat and horticultural products, but at the same time bring about a large increase in imports of commodities such as vegetable oil and sugar; and (iii) CAFTA will have significantly varying impacts on China's regional agricultural development because of large differences in the agricultural production structure in each region. Our results indicate that agriculture in the northern, northeastern and eastern regions of China will benefit from CAFTA, whereas agriculture development in southern China will suffer. Those regional specific impacts are quite different from the effects brought by multilateral free trade treaties, such as those of the WTO, which usually have positive effects on south China but negative impacts on the northern and western parts of China.     

基于组织生态学理论的企业家失败剖析——以长虹公司倪润峰为例

时势造英雄,还是英雄造时势,组织生态学持有悲观看法,认为企业家自身的作用相当有限,只能顺应环境的需要而已。本文以长虹公司的倪润峰为例,说明企业家必须清楚地认识到自己超人的才能,有多少其实仅仅是运气,带有相当的偶然因素,从而难以复制。只有明白了过去为什么成功,才有可能继续成功。     

从金融危机看宏观型对冲基金的本质

国际资本自由流动是宏观型对冲基金的温床。尽管国际上受美金融危机发生的具体原因千差万别,但共同的特点是有意、无意地扩大宏观经济基本面的失衡,然后借助金融市场的瞬间强制调整,获取巨额利润。宏观型对冲基金作为盈利组织无可厚非,关键是要避免宏观经济的严重失衡。     

虚拟经济必须服从和服务于实体经济

自2007年浮出水面的次贷危机在短短一年多的时间内不断升级，并在最近几个月里掀起了全球性的金融海啸。有评论指责CDO、CDS等金融衍生品为始作俑者。文章通过描述这些金融衍生品的交易过程，分析危机形成和传导的机制。从而说明忽视对虚拟经济的监管是引发金融危机的原因所在，并告示人们，虚拟经济的发展必须服从和服务于实体经济。     

谈设计阶段建设单位对工程造价的控制

设计阶段的建设项目工程造价的控制是建设项目在做出投资决策后的控制重点,设计阶段是建设单位工程造价控制的关键和重点。阐述了建设单位加强设计阶段工程造价控制的意义以及采取的主要措施。     

Summer Davos： We Have Confidence in China＇s Economy

＂In the last Winter Davos, when it was the most pessimistic period for the economy in North America and West Europe, Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao declared China＇s economic growth this year was targeted at 8 percent. That firm tone encouraged the whole world. And 8 months have been past, and we just see that China is exactly on the track to achieve this goal. We have confidence in China＇s economy. No doubtedly.＂ Jeremy Jurgens, Senior Director at the World Economic Forum and Head of the Annual Meeting of the New Champions and Community of Global Growth Companies expressed so in a World Economic Forum press conference in Beijing, September 3.     

软件外包合作关系信任演化路径和模型研究

软件外包企业间相互信任通过合作关系发展起来，而信任的发展又会促进双方谋求更多的合作，从而形成循环向上的发展过程。在伙伴关系前提下，信任演化路径由感觉、感知、感化再到系统管理阶段，由感性信任的逐步积累，进而上升到对理性信任的科学项目化管理。最终合作双方的信任管理能根据不同项目变成不断的良性循环，信任变成了外包企业中的一种文化。     

转变我国农业经济发展方式的对策分析

我国农业经济落后的增长方式使得农民的收入低、农产品的生产成本高,推动了物价上涨,使国家面临着粮食危机的风险.我们应当通过政策支持、融资扶持、教育培训、加强基础设施建设和信息提供等措施促进我国农业经济增长方式的转变.     

基于产业链的企业经营指标预测研究及实证分析

客观科学的预测企业主要经济指标是非常重要的,但是比较困难的。采用数学模型是一种有效的科学方法。本文尝试基于产业链,运用计量经济学的方法,使用GDP和行业数据,模拟出数学模型,以此来预测企业的主要经济指标。并以造纸业为例进行实证分析。     

对水利工程建设监理工作的研究

水利工程建设是我国的一项基础建设,具有保障国家粮食安全的重要作用。通过提高对实施项目建设监理工作的认识,提高承包商对监理工作的理解、支持和配合,提高工程建设各方的法律法规意识、确保合同顺利实施三个方面做好监理工作。