Is your vision consistent?: A method for checking, based on scenario concepts

Common sense tells us that the future is an essential element in any strategy. In addition, there is a good deal of literature on scenario planning, which is an important tool in considering the future in terms of strategy. However, in many organizations there is serious resistance to the development of scenarios, and they are not broadly implemented by companies. But even organizations that do not rely heavily on the development of scenarios do, in fact, construct visions to guide their strategies. But it might be asked, what happens when this vision is not consistent with the future? To address this problem, the present article proposes a method for checking the content and consistency of an organization's vision of the future, no matter how it was conceived. The proposed method is grounded on theoretical concepts from the field of future studies, which are described in this article. This study was motivated by the search for developing new ways of improving and using scenario techniques as a method for making strategic decisions. The method was then tested on a company in the field of information technology in order to check its operational feasibility. The test showed that the proposed method is, in fact, operationally feasible and was capable of analyzing the vision of the company being studied, indicating both its shortcomings and points of inconsistency.     

Dynamic scoring: Alternative financing schemes

Neoclassical growth models predict that reductions in capital or labor income tax rates are expansionary when lump-sum transfers are used to balance the government budget. This paper explores the consequences of bond-financed tax reductions that bring forth a range of possible offsetting policies, including future government consumption, capital tax rates, or labor tax rates. Through the resulting intertemporal distortions, current tax cuts can be expansionary or contractionary. The paper also finds that more aggressive responses of offsetting policies to debt engender less debt accumulation and less costly tax cuts.     

Competitive effects of Basel II on US bank credit card lending

We analyze the potential competitive effects of the proposed Basel II capital regulations on US bank credit card lending. We find that bank issuers operating under Basel II will face higher regulatory capital minimums than Basel I banks, with differences due to the way the two regulations treat reserves and gain-on-sale of securitized assets. During periods of normal economic conditions, this is not likely to have a competitive effect; however, during periods of substantial stress in credit card portfolios, Basel II banks could face a significant competitive disadvantage relative to Basel I banks and nonbank issuers.     

Directly measuring early exercise premiums using American and European S&P 500 Index options

The Chicago Board Options Exchange concurrently listed European‐style and American‐style options on the Standard and Poor's 500 Index from April 2, 1986 through June 20, 1986. This unique time period allows for a direct measurement of the early exercise premium in American‐style index options. In this study, using ask quotes, we find average early exercise premiums ranging from 5.04 to 5.90% for calls, and from 7.97 to 10.86% for puts. Additionally, we are able to depict a potentially useful functional form of the early exercise premium. As in previous studies, we find some instances of negative early exercise premiums. However, a trading simulation shows that traders must be able to trade within the bid–ask spread to profit from these apparent arbitrage opportunities. © 2003 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Jrl Fut Mark 23:287–313, 2003     

The effect of spot and futures trading on stock index market volatility: A nonparametric approach

This article provides empirical evidence on the intraday relation between spot volatility and trading volume in the Spanish stock index futures market. GARCH methodology is used to estimate spot volatility. We analyze the potential relation between spot and futures trading volume and spot volatility by estimating the corresponding conditional density functions as proposed in Quah (1997). Our results reveal no significant link between those variables. Similar findings arise when expected and unexpected volume is considered. Our results suggest that derivative market is not a force behind episodes of significant spot jump volatility. © 2003 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Jrl Fut Mark 23:841–858, 2003     

LOGISTICS OUTSOURCING RELATIONSHIPS: CUSTOMER PERSPECTIVES

This study attempts to infuse relationship marketing theory into the study of logistics outsourcing relationships. In particular, the study demonstrates that not all of the partnerships between customers and providers of third‐party logistics services are the same in terms of their level of development. The existence of distinct levels of partnership established previously in the logistics literature is partially supported and a relationship between level of partnership development and the customer perceptions of key relationship marketing elements and outcomes is established. While exploratory in nature, these findings suggest there are benefits for the increased costs of developing closer partnerships.     

A RE-EXAMINATION OF THE EFFECT OF 12B–1 PLANS ON MUTUAL FUND EXPENSE RATIOS

In this paper we re-examine the effect of 12b–1 payments on mutual fund expense ratios by analyzing data from 1988 through 1991. The findings are consistent with previous studies that find charges are a dead-weight cost borne by shareholders. However, we show that this cost increases over time.