Timing the Start of Material Substitution Projects: Creating Switching Options under Volatile Material Prices

Firms developing new products often face the challenge of making investment decisions under uncertain input–cost conditions due to the price volatilities of the materials they use. These decisions need to be made long before the final products are launched on the market. Therefore, firms that invest in the opportunity to switch materials in a timely manner will have the flexibility to react to material price changes and realize competitive advantages. However, volatile material prices may also cause a firm to delay investment. Using real‐options reasoning, this paper studies the influence of input‐cost fluctuations on the timing decision to start new product development (NPD) and thus create the follow‐on opportunity to later replace an existing product. A model that combines waiting and switching options to derive influencing factors of the flexibility value that triggers the investment is developed and tested on a sample of material substitution projects from manufacturing firms. The results show how price uncertainty of the new and the old material, their joint price development, the expected project duration, and competitive preemption are related to the propensity to delay the start of NPD. The findings provide new insights on how timing in adopting materials can be used to hedge exposure to volatile material prices. The insights are relevant for adopters and producers of new materials, as well as for policy makers who strive for supporting the diffusion of new materials.     

项目投资决策中折现率的选择

项目投资是否可行需要根据决策评价指标来判断,而评价指标的计算离不开折现率,其高低对决策结果起着关键性作用.所以,要正确选择折现率,提高决策质量.     

Quality management practices and their relationship to buyer’s supplier ratings: a study in the Korean automotive industry

This research explores if quality management practices are different among suppliers whose performance is rated high, medium, or low by a common buying company and identifies which specific practices contribute to the differences. The entire population of first-tier suppliers to a Korean auto assembler was surveyed to measure use of quality management practices. Useable returns were received from 25% of the suppliers surveyed. To measure conformance quality and overall rating, suppliers were categorized into high, medium, and low performing groups based on the buying company’s data. Multivariate analysis of variance was done using general linear model (GLM-MANOVA) to explore differences in the high-, medium-, and low-performing supplier groups based on their use of quality management practices. No statistically significant differences were found when suppliers were categorized based on conformance quality. However, when categorized based on overall rating, the highest rated suppliers were found to emphasize process management and employee satisfaction to a greater degree than the lowest rated suppliers.     

Health,Education and Emergence from the Development Trap

Abstract: This paper studies the emergence of developing countries from a development trap. It shows that countries whose dynamics exhibits several growth peaks can be considered as cases of equilibrium jump. Applying this criterion to a sample of 65 countries that were initially very poor in 1950, it identifies 13 such countries, called ‘emerging economies’. Comparing emerging and non‐emerging economies in the 1950s and early 1960s, it shows that economic take‐offs starting in the 1960s can be related to health and education in the early 1950s, while other possible factors, such as savings, openness and democracy are not significant.