LONG-TERM AND SHORT-TERM CAUSAL RELATIONS BETWEEN DIVIDENDS AND STOCK PRICES: A TEST OF LINTNER'S DIVIDEND MODEL AND THE PRESENT VALUE MODEL OF STOCK PRICES

In this paper we test the joint implications for the intertemporal behavior of stock prices and dividends expressed in the Lintner dividend model and the present value model of stock prices. We use macro data corresponding to quarterly S&P 500 index prices and dividends for January 1930–December 1990. The methodology used is the error correction model (ECM), which allows testing for long-term and short-term relations between the two variables. Results from the ECM indicate that a long-term equilibrium relation exists between dividends and stock prices, and that an error correction mechanism is at work when a disequilibrium exits between the two variables. Stock prices and dividends also influence each other in the short term. Finally, the results show that dividends and stock prices exhibit a contemporaneous causal relation.     

Expectations and Macro-Housing Interactions in a Small Open Economy: Evidence from Korea

Open Economies Review - This paper studies the interaction between the housing sector and the macroeconomic environment in Korea. Besides serving as a typical small open economy, Korea provides an...     

Asymmetric sensitivity of executive bonus compensation to earnings and the effect of regulatory changes

Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting - In this paper we examine the sensitivity of CEO bonus to earnings in the cases of good news and bad news, and compare these relationships in the...     

Short-Term External Debt and Foreign Exchange Rate Volatility in Emerging Economies: Evidence from the Korea Market

Abstract:

We empirically analyze the main determinants of foreign exchange rate (FX) volatility in emerging market economies using the data of Korea corporations and financial institutions. We find that short-term external debt is more important than trading volume of foreign investors in explaining FX volatility. Our results suggest that short-term debt-controlling measures, such as a tax levy on short-term borrowing, can be more effective in moderating FX volatility than can the measures affecting the trading volume, such as a Tobin tax.     

Mutual commitment to support exchange: relation‐specific IT system as a substitute for managerial hierarchy

This paper examines the effects of information technology (IT) on the governance of vertically related firms. We propose that a highly relation‐specific IT system in inter‐firm transactions plays a key role in the resulting inter‐firm governance as a mutual sunk‐cost commitment, in terms of leading to both less vertical integration (i.e., a change in governance mode as a first‐order effect) and a smaller number of suppliers (i.e., a change within a governance mode as a second‐order effect). As a result, this highly relation‐specific IT system (bilateral investment) can be an alternative governance mode of electronic integration that acts as a substitute for managerial hierarchy and vertical financial ownership. From a strategic management perspective, this paper provides transaction costs and resource‐based explanations on IT systems' impact on the organizational boundary decision and its impact on the likelihood of the firm achieving sustainable competitive advantage. Copyright © 2006 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Work motivation and social communication among public managers

This article tests hypotheses about the effects of two types of work motivation (i.e. intrinsic motivation and extrinsic motivation) and four types of social communication on three important work dispositions (i.e. job involvement, red tape, and perceived organizational effectiveness) among 790 managers employed in public agencies in the states of Illinois and Georgia. The results show that intrinsic motivation is significantly associated with public managers' job involvement, perceptions of red tape, and organizational effectiveness. Also, certain types of organizational communication and mentoring socialization are closely related to the outcomes. The results of cross-interaction effects between motivation and communications on outcome variables support the SDT prediction that when public managers are more involved with different types of social communication behaviors, the relationship between extrinsic motivation and three outcome variables becomes more pronounced. That is, communication in public agencies provides more autonomy and discretion for extrinsically motivated public managers, thus leading to more positive organizational dispositions.     

A consistent nonparametric test of affiliation in auction models

We propose a new nonparametric test of affiliation, a strong form of positive dependence with independence as a special, knife-edge, case. The test is consistent against all departures from the null of affiliation, and its null distribution is standard normal. Like most nonparametric tests, a sample-size dependent input parameter is needed. We provide an informal procedure for choosing the input parameter and evaluate the test’s performance using a simulation study. Our test can be used to test the fundamental assumptions of the auctions literature. We implement our test empirically using the Outer Continental Shelf (OCS) auction data.     

Semiparametric tests of conditional moment restrictions under weak or partial identification

We propose two new semiparametric specification tests which test whether a vector of conditional moment conditions is satisfied for any vector of parameter values θ₀. Unlike most existing tests, our tests are asymptotically valid under weak and/or partial identification and can accommodate discontinuities in the conditional moment functions. Our tests are moreover consistent provided that identification is not too weak. We do not require the availability of a consistent first step estimator. Like Robinson [Robinson, Peter M., 1987. Asymptotically efficient estimation in the presence of heteroskedasticity of unknown form. Econometrica 55, 875–891] and many others in similar problems subsequently, we use k-nearest neighbor (knn) weights instead of kernel weights. The advantage of using knn weights is that local power is invariant to transformations of the instruments and that under strong point identification computation of the test statistic yields an efficient estimator of θ₀ as a byproduct.     

Quantile Autoregressive Distributed Lag Model with an Application to House Price Returns*

This article studies quantile regression in an autoregressive dynamic framework with exogenous stationary covariates. We demonstrate the potential of the quantile autoregressive distributed lag model with an application to house price returns in the United Kingdom. The results show that house price returns present a heterogeneous autoregressive behaviour across the quantiles. Real GDP growth and interest rates also have an asymmetric impact on house prices variations.