严竣的房市及海南房地产商的应对策略

2008年下半年以来,全国房地产市场已全面进入调整期,行业形势严竣.本文分析了全国房地产市场现状及未来走势,阐述了海南房地产的独特性.为在市场调整期的海南房地产商提供应对策略建议.     

会计稳健性、企业生命周期与投资效率——来自中国上市公司的经验证据

基于2010至2013年沪深A股上市公司的数据,实证检验了不同生命周期企业会计稳健性对资本投资效率的影响,结果表明:第一,不区分企业生命周期阶段时,会计稳健性能够显著降低企业总的非效率投资和投资过度,但对投资不足的作用不显著;第二,成长期和成熟期企业存在投资不足的样本组中,会计稳健性加剧了企业的投资不足,衰退期企业存在投资不足的样本组中会计稳健性的作用则相反;第三,成长期、成熟期和衰退期企业投资过度样本组中,会计稳健性对投资过度存在显著的抑制作用,且该作用在衰退期企业最大,成长期次之,成熟期最小。     

保护传统街区特色延续古城历史文脉--对喀什历史街区保护的思考和对策

喀什在国内外具有较高的知名度,喀什的文化特色在新疆最具有典型性和吸引力,在长达两千多年的历史演变中,欧亚文化、佛教文化、伊斯兰文化在这里交流融汇,形成了独特的古西域文化特色,喀什历史街区形态和传统建筑特色在中西亚城市发展历史上曾经普遍存在,但在上世纪后期已消失殆尽,在我国西部地区城市中,唯一保存下来了一片古城街区.但历史街区居住人口稠密,市政基础设施落后,与现代化城市发展需求的矛盾日渐突出,在处理历史街区保护和现代城市建设的关系上,需要得到名城保护及城市规划方面的专家、学者的大力支持.     

专业化还是多元化：战略选择的价值判断

企业发展以“多元化”战略为好,还是“专业化”战略为重?作简单地“肯定一个,否定一个”式的评判显然是不科学的,也是无济于事的。上世纪90年代中期以前,多元化的名声非常响亮,随着1997年金融危机中韩国大型多元化企业集团的纷纷衰落,多元化开始成为千夫所指的罪魁祸首。而恰恰在此时,我国的不少企业也因多元化发展陷入困境甚至破产了: 巨人集团总裁史玉柱反省其失败的四大失误之一就是盲目追求多元化经营。巨人公司涉足的电脑业、房地产     

上海市区街道办事处功能作用调整、完善的对策与措施

本文经调查研究,从上海市区街道办事处功能作用存在的问题出发,重新定义其功能与基本职能,提出了上海街道办事处功能作用调整对策与措施。     

ERP与CRM双管齐下共筑企业竞争优势

分析了ERP系统和CRM系统各自的优势、局限性及其差别，说明了只有两个系统相互支持，在企业内部形成一个闭合系统，才能内外兼顾，为企业筑造新的竞争优势。     

Detections of changes in return by a wavelet smoother with conditional heteroscedastic volatility

In this paper, we propose two estimators, an integral estimator and a discretized estimator, for the wavelet coefficient of regression functions in nonparametric regression models with heteroscedastic variance. These estimators can be used to test the jumps of the regression function. The model allows for lagged-dependent variables and other mixing regressors. The asymptotic distributions of the statistics are established, and the asymptotic critical values are analytically obtained from the asymptotic distribution. We also use the test to determine consistent estimators for the locations of change points. The jump sizes and locations of change points can be consistently estimated using wavelet coefficients, and the convergency rates of these estimators are derived. We perform some Monte Carlo simulations to check the powers and sizes of the test statistics. Finally, we give practical examples in finance and economics to detect changes in stock returns and short-term interest rates using the empirical wavelet method.     

Optimal model averaging forecasting in high-dimensional survival analysis

This article considers ultrahigh-dimensional forecasting problems with survival response variables. We propose a two-step model averaging procedure for improving the forecasting accuracy of the true conditional mean of a survival response variable. The first step is to construct a class of candidate models, each with low-dimensional covariates. For this, a feature screening procedure is developed to separate the active and inactive predictors through a marginal Buckley–James index, and to group covariates with a similar index size together to form regression models with survival response variables. The proposed screening method can select active predictors under covariate-dependent censoring, and enjoys sure screening consistency under mild regularity conditions. The second step is to find the optimal model weights for averaging by adapting a delete-one cross-validation criterion, without the standard constraint that the weights sum to one. The theoretical results show that the delete-one cross-validation criterion achieves the lowest possible forecasting loss asymptotically. Numerical studies demonstrate the superior performance of the proposed variable screening and model averaging procedures over existing methods.     

人力资源管理强度的研究回顾及在中国情境下的理论框架建构

人力资源管理强度能够从整体上反映企业人力资源管理的效果,在组织管理实践中具有重要的指导作用.但以往关于人力资源管理强度的探讨主要集中于西方情境,这极大地限制了其在中国情境下的发展.因此,本文立足于中国情境,在对现有人力资源管理强度进行理论回顾的基础上,构建了中国情境下人力资源管理强度的研究框架,并从维度、测量与实证研究三个方面进行了未来展望.     

An intelligent service matching method for mechanical equipment condition monitoring using the fibre Bragg grating sensor network

Due to the advantages of being able to function under harsh environmental conditions and serving as a distributed condition information source in a networked monitoring system, the fibre Bragg grating (FBG) sensor network has attracted considerable attention for equipment online condition monitoring. To provide an overall conditional view of the mechanical equipment operation, a networked service-oriented condition monitoring framework based on FBG sensing is proposed, together with an intelligent matching method for supporting monitoring service management. In the novel framework, three classes of progressive service matching approaches, including service-chain knowledge database service matching, multi-objective constrained service matching and workflow-driven human-interactive service matching, are developed and integrated with an enhanced particle swarm optimisation (PSO) algorithm as well as a workflow-driven mechanism. Moreover, the manufacturing domain ontology, FBG sensor network structure and monitoring object are considered to facilitate the automatic matching of condition monitoring services to overcome the limitations of traditional service processing methods. The experimental results demonstrate that FBG monitoring services can be selected intelligently, and the developed condition monitoring system can be re-built rapidly as new equipment joins the framework. The effectiveness of the service matching method is also verified by implementing a prototype system together with its performance analysis.