Inferential Implications of Over‐Parametrization: A Case Study in Incomplete Categorical Data

In the context of either Bayesian or classical sensitivity analyses of over‐parametrized models for incomplete categorical data, it is well known that prior‐dependence on posterior inferences of nonidentifiable parameters or that too parsimonious over‐parametrized models may lead to erroneous conclusions. Nevertheless, some authors either pay no attention to which parameters are nonidentifiable or do not appropriately account for possible prior‐dependence. We review the literature on this topic and consider simple examples to emphasize that in both inferential frameworks, the subjective components can influence results in nontrivial ways, irrespectively of the sample size. Specifically, we show that prior distributions commonly regarded as slightly informative or noninformative may actually be too informative for nonidentifiable parameters, and that the choice of over‐parametrized models may drastically impact the results, suggesting that a careful examination of their effects should be considered before drawing conclusions.     

Why did the chicken cross the road,and what’s funny about it? The role of transportation cartoons in social experiences

This article samples a number of transport related situations that cartoonists sketch in the media, thereby taking a stand and offering solutions regarding transportation issues. We discuss the relationship that is created by the cartoonists and ultimately involves both the general public and transportation professionals. Our analysis offers insight into popular perceptions of transportation experiences through social commentary, transmitted as graphic humor, regarding common situations, which are observed in transport systems. A theory and qualitative research based approach is used to address the complex connections between our daily responses and transportation contexts. An analysis of topical components of transportation systems and experiences as perceived by users and policymakers utilize the representations by cartoonists. By examining how the issues interrelate, we built a storyline that presents observations and critiques.     

UNIVERSAL SEMICONSTANT REBALANCED PORTFOLIOS

In this paper, we investigate investment strategies that can rebalance their target portfolio vectors at arbitrary investment periods. These strategies are called semiconstant rebalanced portfolios in Blum and Kalai and Helmbold et al. Unlike a constant rebalanced portfolio, which must rebalance at every investment interval, a semiconstant rebalanced portfolio rebalances its portfolio only on selected instants. Hence, a semiconstant rebalanced portfolio may avoid rebalancing if the transaction costs outweigh the benefits of rebalancing. In a competitive algorithm framework, we compete against all such semiconstant portfolios with an arbitrary number of rebalancings and corresponding rebalancing instants. We investigate this framework with and without transaction costs and demonstrate sequential portfolios that asymptotically achieve the wealth of the best semiconstant rebalanced portfolios whose number of rebalancings and instants of rebalancings are tuned to the individual sequence of price relatives.     

Food aid to developing countries: A survey

Food aid currently constitutes nearly 15% of official development assistance and hence has considerable potential as a stimulant to growth in LDCs. This paper reviews the evidence on the impact of food aid on growth and its associated factors. While recognizing that the use of food aid is influenced by a constellation of interests in recipient and donor countries, it identifies a set of guiding principles for maximizing the effectiveness of food aid. These include the need for food (relative to other development needs), its level of substitutability with commercial imports, its incorporation in a poverty-oriented development plan, its guaranteed availability and its complementarity with financial aid. Current food aid programmes recognize the relevance of some of these principles - e.g. the criteria of necessity - but ignore others — notably the need to situate food aid in a comprehensive plan for improving patterns of income distribution in LDCs.     

Lessons of Post-War Development Experience

Abstract: This paper traces the development process from the optimism of the post-war era to the present scenario of adjustment, retrenchment and stabilisation. What were the mistakes and the success stories, and the lessons that can be drawn from them these last 40 years ? The paper takes a hard look at the ‘Golden Years’ of the 1950s and 1960s; it analyses the ‘debt-led’ growth of the 1970s and the resulting lost decade of the 1980s in Africa and Latin America. It goes on to examine the successes and failures that emerge from the history of the development process, and argues in favour of learning these lessons by resuming a policy of ‘redistributionwith growth’ and re-establishing strong international institutions to ensure future growth in developing countries. Résumé: Le présent document retrace le processus de développement depuisl'optimisme de l'apres-guerre au scenario actuel de l'ajustement, de redressement et de stabilisation. Quels ont ete les erreurs et les SUCCCS et les enseignements que l'on pourrait en tirer au cours de ces 40 dernieres annees? Le document examine a fond la « belle epoque » des annees 1950 et 1960; il analyse la croissance guidee par la dette des annees 1970 et en consequence, la decennie perdue des annees 1980 en Afrique et en Amerique Latine. I1 continue en examinant les SUCCCS et les echecs provenant de l'histoire du processus de developpement et donne les raisons pour lesquelles ces enseignements doiventttre retenus en reprenant une politique de « nouvelle repartition et de croissance » et en creant de nouvelles institutions internationales assez solides capables d'assurer a l'avenir la croissance dans les pays en developpement.