CONTINUOUS PREFERENCE ORDERINGS REPRESENTABLE BY UTILITY FUNCTIONS

This paper surveys the conditions under which it is possible to represent a continuous preference ordering using utility functions. We start with a historical perspective on the notions of utility and preferences, continue by defining the mathematical concepts employed in this literature, and then list several key contributions to the topic of representability. These contributions concern both the preference orderings and the spaces where they are defined. For any continuous preference ordering, we show the need for separability and the sufficiency of connectedness and separability, or second countability, of the space where it is defined. We emphasize the need for separability by showing that in any nonseparable metric space, there are continuous preference orderings without utility representation. However, by reinforcing connectedness, we show that countably boundedness of the preference ordering is a necessary and sufficient condition for the existence of a (continuous) utility representation. Finally, we discuss the special case of strictly monotonic preferences.     

Determining the MSE-optimal cross section to forecast

In this paper, we address the question of which subset of time series should be selected among a given set in order to forecast another series. We evaluate the quality of the forecasts in terms of Mean Squared Error. We propose a family of criteria to estimate the optimal subset. Consistency results are proved, both in the weak (in probability) and strong (almost sure) sense. We present the results of a Monte Carlo experiment and a real data example in which the criteria are compared to some hypothesis tests such as the ones by Diebold and Mariano (1995),  and  and Giacomini and White (2006).     

基于顶层设计的卷烟厂智能仓储系统设计与项目实施

针对目前烟草仓储管理中存在的问题和精益化管理的要求,分析烟草物流的特点和现状,按照顶层设计理论提出基于RFID技术的智能烟草仓储系统解决方案.该方案能够全面提升烟草仓储管理水平和作业效率,实现实时化库存监控,实现作业过程的可视化,减少人为因素干预,提高作业数据的准确性.总结了项目实施过程的经验和教训,为后续相关项目提供了参考.     

Categorizing risks in seven large projects—Which risks do the projects focus on?

In a hierarchy of project objectives, strategic objectives will often be principally different from the operational ones. Operational objectives concern the project outputs/results, and strategic objectives concern the project goal and purpose. In this study, risks are categorized as risks to operational, long‐term, or short‐term strategic objectives, and, by studying a dataset of some 1,450 risk elements that make up the risk registers of seven large projects, we examine how operational and strategic risks are distributed in the projects. The study strongly indicates that risks to a project's strategic objectives rarely occur in the project's risk registers, though project success and failure stories indicate their importance.     

INCENTIVES AND SOCIAL NORMS: A MOTIVATION‐BASED ECONOMIC ANALYSIS OF SOCIAL NORMS

Abstract It is now commonplace to regard social norms as a subject of growing interest in the economic literature (e.g. game theoretical approaches based on ‘other‐regarding’ individual preferences, the analysis of the impact of rewards or punishment on individuals’ behaviour through experimental economics as well as field experiments, the revival of the institutionalist tradition spurred on by the influential work of Douglas North and followed by many others and the growing influence of neuroeconomics). In this paper, we focus on the relationship between incentives and social norms and survey the literature that could constitute the foundations of a motivation‐based economic analysis of social norms. Our main findings are that (1) the interaction between incentives and social norms is far from obvious since taking social norms into account involves the introduction of supplementary motives, in addition to self‐interest, into the economic analytical framework; (2) the analysis of the interaction between incentives and social norms resists an approach exclusively in terms of crowding‐in and ‐out effects because it is sensitive to whether it concerns behaviours driven by honour or by social stigma; (3) as a result, it is difficult to precisely evaluate the policy implication of the interactions between incentives and social norms.     

Do employment subsidies work? Evidence from regionally targeted subsidies in Turkey

This paper studies the effects on registered employment and number of registered establishments of two employment subsidy schemes in Turkey. We implement a difference-in-differences methodology to construct appropriate counterfactuals for the covered provinces. Our findings suggest that both subsidy programs did lead to significant net increases in registered jobs in eligible provinces (5%–13% for the first program and 11%–15% for the second). However, the cost of the actual job creation was high because of substantial deadweight losses, particularly for the first program (47% and 78%). Because of better design features, the second subsidy program had lower, though still significant, deadweight losses (27%–46%). Although constrained by data availability, the evidence suggests that the dominant effect of subsidies was to increase social security registration of firms and workers rather than boosting total employment and economic activity. This supports the theory that in countries with weak enforcement institutions, high labor taxes on low-wage workers may lead to substantial incentives for firms and workers to operate informally.     

Estimation of Asymmetric Stochastic Volatility Models: Application to Daily Average Prices of Energy Products

Energy supply and demand, and as a consequence energy prices, are likely to represent one of the biggest challenges of the 21st century. Commodity markets exhibit increased volatility when there is little or no underutilized supply capability to meet natural fluctuations in demand. In the case of energy markets, the large capital requirements and significant lead times associated with energy production and delivery make them more susceptible to the imbalances in supply capability and demand. Energy price volatility has destructive impact on market agents, and this impact is intensified when the prices exhibit asymmetric volatility. This article pursues two aspects of the issue. First we consider general aspects, especially the asymmetric pattern of volatility of daily returns of different types of energy products. Then, we analyze the behaviour of daily returns by using traditional models of volatility that include AGARCH, TGARCH, EGARCH, and ARSV strategies, as well as a threshold asymmetric autoregressive stochastic volatility (TA-ARSV) model that we propose. The energy products considered in this analysis are probably the most relevant energy products for the economic activity of the nations and the economic relations between countries: Crude Oil (OPEC reference basket and London Brent index), Gasoline, Natural Gas, Butane, and Propane. We use spot prices and the time reference ranges from 1986–1993 to 2009 depending on the product.     

Whatever works: Uncertainty and technological hybrids in medical innovation

The persistent uncertainty that looms over the search for solutions to health problems offers important conceptual insights for the study of technological change. This paper explores the notion of hybridization, namely the embodiment of multiple competing operational principles within a single medical device, as strategy to deal with the practical shortcomings due to said uncertainty. The history of the development of the hybrid artificial disc affords the elaboration of an alternative view of hybridization and, at the same time, the articulation of a dualism between medical science as area of basic research (e.g. what disease is) and as practical knowledge (e.g. how disease can be tackled).     

营利性行为与非营利组织财务规制研究

文章根据非营利组织营利性行为趋势,结合中国社会组织网公布的非营利组织工作报告,指出我国非营利组织的营利性活动仍存在一些不规范行为,应当在财务管理上加以规范,以保证非营利组织营利性行为有章可依,有章必依。     

轨道平顺性综合分析系统的研究

全面、合理地对轨道平顺状态进行评估是保证铁路安全运营的必要条件之一。文章基于国内外轨道不平顺的研究进展,提出了轨道不平顺综合分析的思想,并采用系统功能模块化的设计思想,初步提出了一种用于轨道不平顺分析的综合系统。该系统包括轨道不平顺数据采集、轨道不平顺既有技术分析、轨道不平顺功率谱密度分析、轨道不平顺时频分析、车辆信息分析、轨道不平顺发展趋势预测、轨道不平顺综合评定和线路不平顺维修计划共8个模块。文章给出了一个实例,详细阐述了轨道不平顺功率谱密度分析模块的设计和实现,该模块包括轨道不平顺数据输入、轨道谱的计算、轨道谱的评判等3个小模块。