The Role of Monetary Policy in the New Keynesian Model: Evidence from Vietnam

This paper re-designs the New Keynesian model developed by Ireland (2004 Ireland, P. N. (2004). Technology shocks in the New Keynesian model. The Review of Economics and Statistics, 86(4), 923–936. doi: 10.1162/0034653043125158[Crossref], [Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar]) and then uses the Vietnamese data from January 1995 to December 2012 to estimate the model's parameters. The empirical results show that the State Bank of Vietnam had been more aggressive as well as more responsive to aggregate fluctuations in the period before August 2000 than in the latter period. Thus, this change in the policy stance could be a potential reason for the declining importance of monetary policy in generating movements in output growth, inflation, interest rate, and the output gap across the subsamples. Another notable finding is the dominant role of the cost-push shock in explaining fluctuations in inflation, interest rate, and the output gap, leading to a policy implication that more attention should be devoted to developing substitute and complement industries so as to mitigate negative effects of the cost-push shocks by reducing the degree of dependence on imports.     

Regulating an Externality-Generating Utility Environmental Taxes Under Limited Information

Global warming is currently an important item on most nationalenvironmental agendas. In many countries, coal-fired electricity generatingstations represent an important source of greenhouse gases. We examinehow regulations to curb emissions affect public utility pricing regulationwhen regulators act non-cooperatively. We show that, when there is limitedinformation on fixed abatement costs, an environmental regulator prefersan emission tax over an output tax or a lump sum environmental tax. Thepublic utility regulator prefers the lump sum tax regime.     

Model selection in random effects models for directed graphs using approximated Bayes factors

With the development of an MCMC algorithm, Bayesian model selection for the p ₂ model for directed graphs has become possible. This paper presents an empirical exploration in using approximate Bayes factors for model selection. For a social network of Dutch secondary school pupils from different ethnic backgrounds it is investigated whether pupils report that they receive more emotional support from within their own ethnic group. Approximated Bayes factors seem to work, but considerable margins of error have to be reckoned with.     

Instrumental variable estimation based on grouped data

The paper considers the estimation of the coefficients of a single equation in the presence of dummy intruments. We derive pseudo ML and GMM estimators based on moment restrictions induced either by the structural form or by the reduced form of the model. The performance of the estimators is evaluated for the non-Gaussian case. We allow for heteroscedasticity. The asymptotic distributions are based on parameter sequences where the number of instruments increases at the same rate as the sample size. Relaxing the usual Gaussian assumption is shown to affect the normal asymptotic distributions. As a result also recently suggested new specification tests for the validity of instruments depend on Gaussianity. Monte Carlo simulations confirm the accuracy of the asymptotic approach.     

Beyond Dutch disease

How does the deterioration of rule of law in Russia in recent years affect its ability to move away from an export pattern dominated by natural resources? We investigate this question using three datasets for Russia's bilateral trade relations for goods, services and investment at disaggregated level with its partner countries over the world. Our empirical analysis shows that the deterioration of the rule of law in Russia since 2003 has affected the long‐run trade performance of Russia in sophisticated and technology‐intensive manufactured goods, as well as its inward investments with advanced economies. It is precisely this type of trade that Russia should nurture to diversify away from hydrocarbons export dependence. Our statistical analysis also shows that Russia remains to a large extent an outlier within the multilateral trading system. It exports disproportionately less to partner countries which are or had become members of the WTO over our period of analysis. Russia's trade appears to have been negatively affected by the accession of these countries to the WTO. Russia itself finally acceded to the WTO in July 2012 amidst signs of a modest improvement of its rule‐of‐law indicators.     

Mapping EORTC-QLQ-C30 to EQ-5D-3L in patients with colorectal cancer

Aims: The primary aim of this study was to perform a mapping of the EORTC-QLQ-C30 scores to EQ-5D-3L for the SIRFLOX study; a large dataset of patients with previously untreated liver-only or liver-dominant metastatic colorectal cancer (mCRC). A secondary aim was to compare the predictive validity of existing mappings from EORTC-QLQ-C30 to EQ-5D-3L conducted in other cancers.

Methods and materials: Questionnaires (completed within 529 patients) were used in a linear mixed regression to model EQ-5D-3L utility values (scored using the UK tariff) as a function of the five function scores, nine symptom scores, and the global score from the EORTC-QLQ-C30 questionnaire. A Tobit regression was also performed. The mean EQ-5D-3L values for the SIRFLOX trial were calculated and compared with predicted EQ-5D-3L values derived using published mapping algorithms.

Results: The linear mixed regression model provided a satisfactory mapping between the EORTC-QLQ-C30 and the EQ-5D-3L, whilst the Tobit model did not perform as well. When utilities from the SIRFLOX data were calculated with previously published mapping studies, three out of five studies performed well (< 10% mean difference).

Limitations: The main limitation of the study was the lack of meaningful observations post-progression (67 paired observations). For this reason, this study was unable to test whether the mapping holds by disease stage. Additionally, although the study adds to the literature of mappings to the EQ-5D-3L, it is not known how results would differ using the EQ-5D-5L.

Conclusion: This study is the first of its kind in liver-only or liver-dominant mCRC, and mCRC in general. The mapping constructed showed a good fit to the data and provides practitioners with an additional mapping between EORTC-QLQ-C30 to EQ-5D-3L using a large dataset (529 patients, 707 paired observations). The study also confirmed the generalizability of mappings published by Proskorovsky, Kontodimopoulos, and Longworth to liver-only or liver-dominant mCRC.     

In love with the debit card but still married to cash

Using shopping diary survey data, we show that changing payment patterns is a challenging task; even when consumers have fallen in love with a new payment instrument, they find it hard to divorce from their old payment instrument. We find a discrepancy between how consumers prefer to pay and how they actually pay. Half of the consumers who prefer the debit card to cash don’t use the debit card to pay a majority of their point-of-sale transactions. Our regression results show that the habit of paying cash plays a significant role explaining the presence of a gap.