The driving forces of the level and the growth rate of real per capita income in Indonesia

We investigate the driving forces behind the level and the growth rate in real per capita Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in Indonesia. The ultimate reasons and the proximate causes underlying Indonesia's economic growth since the mid-1960s are still unclear. In the literature there have been at least three ways of investigating the driving forces of economic growth in Indonesia, namely: growth accounting system, regression and causality. The difference and improvement in this article is that we employed a two-step bounds testing approach to cointegration, which has not been done before; it uses the endogenous growth model to consider 12 policy variables and two external factors that potentially affect per capita income, this number is more than that has been done before. The empirical results that we obtained using this two-step bounds testing approach help us draw policy implications that if or when implemented would be expected to increase the growth of real per capita income, as well as the welfare of the people of Indonesia. Economic growth in Indonesia is largely driven by government policy, so the ability to increase Indonesia's economic growth rate, in the long run, will largely depend on the implementation of appropriate government policies.     

Identifying significant characteristics of organic milk consumers: a CART analysis of an artefactual field experiment

The organic dairy category is one of the fastest growing categories of organic foods in the US. Organic milk consumers generally cite perceived health benefits and lower risk of food contamination, as well as perceived superior quality and environmental sustainability of organic farming methods, as the major motivations for preference of organic over conventional milk. While the attributes of organic milk that are valued by consumers are fairly well-known, more ambiguity exists regarding the demographic characteristics of the typical organic milk consumer. This research makes use of experimental data from 148 adult participants and use a Classification and Regression Tree (CART) analysis, a nonparametric modelling approach, to identify how Willingness-to-Pay (WTP) for organic milk varies with the demographic profile of experiment participants. The study finds that perceived taste of organic milk, concern for the risk of consuming conventional milk, being a primary shopper, and the quantity of milk consumed are the major factors that separate experiment participants into groups with high and low WTP for organic milk.     

Financial innovation in the UK

This study employs a national survey of over 1100 British financial firms to ascertain the determinants of financial innovation and their sales success using the logit and the generalized Tobit models. We find that the likelihood of financial innovation rises with the size of financial firms, employee education, greater expenditure on research and development, the availability of finance and the extent to which firms cooperate with each other. Perceptions of economic risk and innovation costs are also influential. R&D, cooperation and human capital are the main variables driving the success of financial innovation, measured by the percentage share of innovations sold. Firms in London/the south have a significantly greater tendency to innovate, though Scotland also does well. Stock broking, fund management and related activities are more innovative than firms in the financial intermediation and pension/insurance sectors.     

Real and perceived losses from unemployment: a cross-country study

This article compares the Unemployment Rate (UR) as a measure of inefficiency with several other potential measures across 18 Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) countries. Results show that the UR is not a very good measure of relative inefficiency between countries, it overestimates the number of individuals who would get jobs if the market is clear, the Dead Weight Losses (DWLs) of UR are remarkably low even in high unemployment countries and the aggregate perceived monetary losses by the unemployed as a proportion of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) are also uniformly low, although inframarginal individuals in some countries may perceive their losses to be high.     

Time-varying parameters in the almost ideal demand system and the Rotterdam model: will the best specification please stand up?

This article assesses the ability of the Rotterdam Model (RM) and of three versions of the Almost Ideal Demand System (AIDS) to recover the time-varying elasticities of a true demand system and to satisfy theoretical regularity. Using Monte Carlo simulations, we find that the RM performs better than the linear-approximate AIDS at recovering the signs of all the time-varying elasticities. More importantly, the RM has the ability to track the paths of time-varying income elasticities, even when the true values are very high. The linear-approximate AIDS, not only performs poorly at recovering the time-varying elasticities but also badly approximates the nonlinear AIDS.     

Estimating demand elasticities under rationing

Eliminating rationing in the United Kingdom following the Second World War was a concern for policy-makers because of potentially large fluctuations in post-war prices and the impact on unrationed goods. This study shows that in using virtual prices, elasticities can be estimated from a ‘free’ demand system consistent with observed consumer choices. Substitution estimates without accounting for rationing are misleading. In contrast, using virtual prices and estimating a ‘free’ market system yield results similar to those of the pre-war period. Results show that food rationing affected expenditure across unrationed goods. Rationing on other services had little effect on expenditure across unrationed goods.     

TV advertising spillovers and demand for private labels: the case of carbonated soft drinks

The expansion of private labels, or store brands, has transformed consumer choice sets and competition in retail markets, prompting manufacturers to fight back with renewed pricing and product and promotion strategies to forestall further private label expansion. This article examines the spillover effects of television advertising on brand-level consumer demand for carbonated soft drinks (CSDs), including private labels, using a random coefficients logit model with household purchasing and advertising viewing Nielsen data. As in previous work, we find that although brand spillover effects significantly increase demand for CSD brands in the same company and undermine demand facing other manufacturers’ CSD brands, surprisingly, there are positive spillover effects on the demand for private label brands. This indicates that brand advertising is persuasive with respect to manufacturers’ brands but complementary with respect to private labels. Further results show that eliminating television advertising for CSDs would lower aggregate CSD sales as consumers migrate to other beverages, although private labels stand to gain, particularly Wal-Mart brands.     

From real estate to consumption: the role of credit markets in the USA

The aim of this article is to test whether the credit market conditions affect the strength of transmission of real estate wealth effects on household consumption in the US economy. Although many different works have dealt with the analysis of the existence of a real estate wealth effect, most of them as a reaction to the dramatic increase of housing prices in several OECD countries, there are only few papers analysing whether the consumption response depends on the positive or negative sign of the wealth shock and, as far as we know, none of them takes the effects of credit market conditions on that asymmetric response into account. This article tries to fill the existing gap in the literature on this matter. From an econometric perspective, we estimate the asymmetries in the consumption response within the momentum threshold autoregressive model (M-TAR) proposed by Enders and Siklos (2001), but following Stevans (2004), it is applied to a multivariate framework. The main results show that the credit market conditions play a significant role in the transmission of changes in real estate wealth to consumption. In addition, we find that there exists an asymmetric behaviour in the US aggregate consumption spending responses to real estate wealth and credit market shocks, which is only significant when a negative shock takes place.     

The effects of domestic rice market interventions outside business-as-usual conditions for imported rice prices

The Philippine government intervenes in the domestic rice market through the imposition of import tariffs and the provision of producer and consumer subsidies. While policymakers are aware that these programmes come with allocative efficiency costs, they justify the programmes on the grounds that they insulate the domestic economy from unexpected price spikes in the international rice market. An interesting matter for policy evaluation is to quantify the insulation benefit that the programmes provide in circumstances of sudden severe import price spikes. To examine this question, we undertake a dynamic computable general equilibrium (CGE) simulation in which the Philippines is subject to an external rice price shock. We find that the insulation benefit of the support programmes under a 2008-like event is worth approximately 0.10% of real consumption. However, the cost of insuring against these price spikes is significant. We estimate the annual cost of the rice market interventions at approximately 0.40% of real consumption.     

A spatial model of corporate tax incidence

Using a unique, self-compiled data-set on international tax rates, we explore the link between taxes and manufacturing wages for a panel of 66 countries over 25 years. We find, controlling for other macroeconomic variables, that wages are significantly responsive to corporate taxation. Higher corporate tax rates depress wages. Using spatial modelling techniques, we also find that tax characteristics of neighbouring countries, whether geographic or economic, have a significant effect on domestic wages. We test for, and reject, spatial autocorrelation in our model using a modification of the Moran-I test statistic that accounts for country-specific fixed effects in a panel data setting. Our article fits in with the new economic geography literature as well as the urban economics literature which attempt to explain the spatial distribution of wages.