The demographic impact of AIDS in sub-Saharan Africa: short- and long-term projections

"This paper describes the methodology used to incorporate AIDS mortality in recently revised World Bank population projections....The paper first reviews different approaches for projecting AIDS and its demographic consequences. This is followed by a summary of an epidemiological model that simulates the spread of HIV used in this analysis, and a demographic model that translates mortality from AIDS into population outcomes. These models are then used in a set of simulations, from which the effect of current HIV prevalence on projected future mortality is extracted. Finally, the extracted equations linking current HIV prevalence with future mortality indicators are applied to sub-Saharan countries with a measurable level of current HIV prevalence."     

Charitable life insurance--the ideal deferred gift

As financial pressures on non-profits rise, fund raisers are constantly searching for alternative income sources. Life insurance may be one of them.     

Retraining midcareer managers: Career history and self-efficacy beliefs

Many corporations are retraining midcareer managers in order to combat employee obsolescence and boost corporate competitiveness. The receptivity of midcareer managers to retraining is mixed. Those managers who believe they can master new work-related learning (in the terms of this study, those who have positive self-efficacy in learning beliefs) are most amenable to retraining. The objective of the present study was to determine the antecedents of positive self-efficacy beliefs for midcareer managers facing retraining. We discovered that managers' advancement potential and the relevance of their previous training had a profound impact on their self-efficacy beliefs. These findings have important practical implications. The seeds of receptivity to retraining are planted throughout managers' careers. Hence, retraining should not be viewed on a program-by-program basis, but rather should be understood in the broader context of corporate life and individual career history. To prepare for the inevitable corporate evolution and change demanded in a dynamic business environment, senior executives and human resource managers should be proactive in creating those conditions that facilitate the development of positive self-efficacy in learning beliefs.     

The Effects of local Fair Housing Ordinances on Housing Segregation: Their Impact Is Small, But It's an Important Positive Change Toward Integration

Abstract . State and local fair housing ordinances, patterned after federal legislation, are promoted by federal policy. This study investigates whether these local laws have had any effect on levels of residential segregation between Whites and Blacks, 1970-1980, by comparing changes in segregation for 111 cities characterized by different types of fair housing coverage. Results show average declines of 9 points in the index of dissimilarity, with cities covered by both state and local laws declining slightly more than cities with no fair housing coverage. Declines are not greater in cities with laws that are “substantially equivalent” to Title VIII vs. cities with non-equivalent laws. When changes in segregation were examined by a variety of population, economic and housing variables that may affect segregation change, it was found that local ordinances continue to have a small, but statistically significant effect. This effect varies according to the pattern of segregation change under study; deconcentration of ghetto areas and integration of White areas are not affected by type of local fair housing coverage.     

Costs, Institutional Mobility Barriers, and Market Structure: Advertising Agencies as Multiproduct Firms

What accounts for the diversity and limited concentration that has long characterized the organization of the advertising agency industry? This question is addressed by treating an advertising agency as a multiproduct firm. The firm's product line or service mix is defined in terms of the set of different media categories where an agency places the advertising messages that it creates on behalf of its clients. Evidence is presented indicating that the structure of demand and costs in the advertising agency industry conforms to the conditions that MacDonald and Slivinski showed were required for an industry to sustain an equilibrium with diversified firms. Building on this framework, we formulate a set of three hypotheses relating to the realization of product-specific scale and scope economies. The first two hypotheses posit that given low fixed costs and minimal entry barriers, both media-specific scale and scope economies are available and can be exploited by relatively small-size agencies. The third hypothesis suggests that large agencies may experience diseconomies of scope as a consequence of excessive diversification induced by two pervasive industry institutional phenomena: (1) “bundling” of agency services to match client demand for a mix of media advertising, and (2) “conflict policy,” which prohibits an agency from serving competing accounts and operates as a mobility constraint. Utilizing a multiproduct cost function, we estimate media-specific scale and scope economies for a cross section of 401 U.S. agencies in 1987. The results obtained support the set of three hypotheses outlined above. The paper concludes with a discussion of the implications of these findings for the restructuring currently underway in this industry.     

Some properties of the length of the shortest half

This paper discusses some properties of the length of the shortest half proposed by Rousseeuw and Leroy (1988) as a robust scale estimator.