Estimating nonlinear time-series models using simulated vector autoregressions

This paper develops two new methods for conducting formal statistical inference in nonlinear dynamic economic models. The two methods require very little analytical tractability, relying instead on numerical simulation of the model's dynamic behaviour. Although one of the estimators is asymptotically more efficient than the other, a Monte Carlo study shows that, for a specific application, the less efficient estimator has smaller mean squared error in samples of the size typically encountered in macroeconomics. The estimator with superior small sample performance is used to estimate the parameters of a real business cycle model using observed US time-series data.     

Problem of unity of measurements in ensuring safety of hydraulic structures

Translated from Gidrotekhnicheskoe Stroitel'stvo, No. 1, pp. 14–17, January, 1994.     

Simulation of sulfide buildup in wastewater and atmosphere of sewer networks.

A model concept for prediction of sulfide buildup in sewer networks is presented. The model concept is an extension to--and a further development of--the WATS model (Wastewater Aerobic-anaerobic Transformations in Sewers), which has been developed by Hvitved-Jacobsen and co-workers at Aalborg University. In addition to the sulfur cycle, the WATS model simulates changes in dissolved oxygen and carbon fractions of different biodegradability. The sulfur cycle was introduced via six processes: 1. sulfide production taking place in the biofilm covering the permanently wetted sewer walls; 2. biological sulfide oxidation in the permanently wetted biofilm; 3. chemical and biological sulfide oxidation in the water phase; 4. sulfide precipitation with metals present in the wastewater; 5. emission of hydrogen sulfide to the sewer atmosphere and 6. adsorption and oxidation of hydrogen sulfide on the moist sewer walls where concrete corrosion may take place.     

Use of 3D modelling and several ultrasound sensors to assess overflow rate.

A new instrumentation mode has been put in place in order to determine the overflow rate of five complex CSOs of the system in Sélestat (French), which are subject to self monitoring. 3D and 1D models have made it possible to predict the shapes of the water lines and suggest a location for the ultrasound sensors. In order to validate the instrumentation principle, three overhead sensors were placed on a weir. The overflow laws suggested are of the type Q(overflow) = a1h1b1 + a2h2b2 + a3h3b3. Early results of the overflow rate that have been obtained by applying the law are close to 10 % of the flow measured in the physical test bench. On the actual site, the ultrasound sensors were assembled on a rail covering the entire weir in order to be able to change their position in future after models calibration.     

An Experimental Investigation of Increased Professional Education Requirements*

Abstract. We experimentally investigate the effects of a mandatory increase in education on the market for professional labor services when several service qualities are assumed to exist. We show that when suppliers have insufficient incentives to offer high-quality services in a free market, an increase in mandatory education can improve the coordination of supplier decisions and increase efficiency. If suppliers voluntarily provide a sufficient quantity of high-quality services, an education constraint can have the opposite effect. In both instances, however, an increase in the mandatory level of education can be expected to reduce the price of high-quality services while increasing the price of lower service qualities. Résumé. Les auteurs ont procédé à une analyse expérimentale des conséquences qu'aurait une hausse imposée du niveau d'études sur le marché des services professionnels, si l'on suppose l'existence de plusieurs qualités de services. L'analyse démontre que lorsque les stimulants sont insuffisants pour inciter les fournisseurs à offrir des services professionnels de qualité supérieure dans un marché libre, une hausse imposée du niveau d'études peut améliorer la coordination des décisions des fournisseurs et augmenter l'efficience. Si toutefois les fournisseurs offrent de leur propre chef une quantité suffisante de services de qualité supérieure, le fait d'imposer un niveau d'études supérieur peut avoir l'effet contraire. Dans les deux cas, on peut s'attendre à ce qu'une hausse du niveau d'études obligatoire réduise le prix des services de qualité supérieure tout en augmentant le prix des services de qualité plus faible.     

Countries and their products: A cognitive structure perspective

This research reports on consumers’ cognitive structures for countries and their products. In-depth personal interviews identified respondents’ knowledge, beliefs, myths, and other relevant cognitions related to a diverse set of 11 countries and their products. Derived cognitive dimensions were analyzed via correspondence analysis, and the 11 countries were subsequently grouped into five sets, or cognitive categories. In addition to the empirical findings, the article introduces the concept of country equity as a new way of thinking about global brands and discusses managerial implications related thereto. He has published in theJournal of Consumer Research, Journal of Marketing Research, Journal of Marketing, and elsewhere. His articles have appeared in theJournal of Marketing, Journal of the Academy of Marketing Science, Journal of International Business Studies, California Management Review, and others. He is the coauthor of two marketing research textbooks and has published in leading marketing and social psychological journals.     

Golden Parachutes: Incentive Aligners,Management Entrenchers,or Takeover Bid Signals?

In this paper we investigate the effect of golden parachute (GP) adoptions on shareholder wealth. We control for the potential effect a GP adoption has on the probability that a firm will receive a takeover bid by investigating the wealth effects for firms that are in play when the GP is adopted. We find that announcements are wealth neutral when firms are in play and wealth increasing when firms are not in play when a GP is adopted. The results suggest that GPs have no influence on the success of a tender offer, refuting the hypotheses that they either align manager and shareholder interests or that they entrench inefficient managers. The difference in the results for in-play and not-in-play firms is consistent with the hypothesis that GPs signal an increased likelihood that a firm will receive a takeover bid.