The role of accounting disaggregation in detecting and mitigating earnings management

Though ample empirical evidence alludes to the importance of disaggregated accounting data in the context of earnings management, extant theory considers biases in reporting mostly at the aggregated level of the accounting report. By introducing accounting disaggregation into the conventional theoretical framework of earnings management, this study highlights the essential role that disaggregated accounting data play in detecting and mitigating reporting manipulations. Disaggregated reports are shown to be especially effective when they consist of accounting items that are tightly interrelated by their fundamental economic nature, differ considerably in their sensitivity to reporting manipulations, and vary in their signs.     

Systemic risk and the refinancing ratchet effect

The combination of rising home prices, declining interest rates, and near-frictionless refinancing opportunities can create unintentional synchronization of homeowner leverage, leading to a “ratchet” effect on leverage because homes are indivisible and owner-occupants cannot raise equity to reduce leverage when home prices fall. Our simulation of the U.S. housing market yields potential losses of $1.7 trillion from June 2006 to December 2008 with cash-out refinancing vs. only $330 billion in the absence of cash-out refinancing. The refinancing ratchet effect is a new type of systemic risk in the financial system and does not rely on any dysfunctional behaviors.     

A Markov regime switching approach for hedging stock indices

In this paper we describe a new approach for determining time‐varying minimum variance hedge ratio in stock index futures markets by using Markov Regime Switching (MRS) models. The rationale behind the use of these models stems from the fact that the dynamic relationship between spot and futures returns may be characterized by regime shifts, which, in turn, suggests that by allowing the hedge ratio to be dependent upon the “state of the market,” one may obtain more efficient hedge ratios and hence, superior hedging performance compared to other methods in the literature. The performance of the MRS hedge ratios is compared to that of alternative models such as GARCH, Error Correction and OLS in the FTSE 100 and S&P 500 markets. In and out‐of‐sample tests indicate that MRS hedge ratios outperform the other models in reducing portfolio risk in the FTSE 100 market. In the S&P 500 market the MRS model outperforms the other hedging strategies only within sample. Overall, the results indicate that by using MRS models market agents may be able to increase the performance of their hedges, measured in terms of variance reduction and increase in their utility. © 2004 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Jrl Fut Mark 24:649–674, 2004     

Harvesting to Extinction: Is It Socially Rational?

This paper presents a critique of the neoclassical view of the optimal use of renewable resources and offers an alternative view based on the method of classical thermodynamics. The presentation is forwarded via the issue of harvesting to extinction. Based on simple models, the traditional theory suggests that society would benefit from wiping out any renewable resource whose intrinsic growth rate, though positive, is smaller than the social rate of time preference. The latter is the rate society is using to discount its future benefits and costs. To bypass this ecologically implausible outcome, the simplistic assumptions have been modified in various ways. For example, either the costs or the benefits of harvesting have been made to depend on the stock of the resource as well as on the yield. The modifications offered make society less prone to wipe out resources intentionally, but they still disregard a more fundamental difficulty: The traditional theory is not consistent with the second law of thermodynamics; it describes a process that defies the second law, which no known system is able to be undergoing. No doubt, the theory should be challenged first and foremost on this ground, but none of the offered modifications is capable of annulling this inconsistency. A deeper change is needed because the social values of the resource as perceived by a society that behaves in manners consistent with the second law and as defined by the traditional theory necessarily differ. The paper identifies the socially consistent value and shows that harvesting to extinction is never optimal socially. Were society to follow the socially inconsistent value, it would always underestimate the importance of self-sustained resources. However, the unlikely refutability of the second law turns this possibility and the socially favored extinctions into arguable outcomes of an untenable theory rather than undesirable outcomes of a sound theory. Potentially growing renewable resources are wiped out in real life for various reasons, but when they are preyed to extinction, their unfortunate fate is an outcome of the dynamics of a socially unregulated system rather than a social objective coming to fruition. This revised version was published online in July 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

Consumption and risk sharing over the life cycle

A striking feature of U.S. data on income and consumption is that inequality increases with age. This paper asks if individual-specific earnings risk can provide a coherent explanation. We find that it can. We construct an overlapping generations general equilibrium model in which households face uninsurable earnings shocks over the course of their lifetimes. Earnings inequality is exogenous and is calibrated to match data from the U.S. Panel Study on Income Dynamics. Consumption inequality is endogenous and matches well data from the U.S. Consumer Expenditure Survey. The total risk households face is decomposed into that realized before entering the labor market and that realized throughout the working years. In welfare terms, the latter is found to be more important than the former.     

Risks for the Long Run: A Potential Resolution of Asset Pricing Puzzles

We model consumption and dividend growth rates as containing (1) a small long‐run predictable component, and (2) fluctuating economic uncertainty (consumption volatility). These dynamics, for which we provide empirical support, in conjunction with Epstein and Zin's (1989) preferences, can explain key asset markets phenomena. In our economy, financial markets dislike economic uncertainty and better long‐run growth prospects raise equity prices. The model can justify the equity premium, the risk‐free rate, and the volatility of the market return, risk‐free rate, and the price–dividend ratio. As in the data, dividend yields predict returns and the volatility of returns is time‐varying.     

ASSESSMENT OF BED-LOAD PREDICTORS BASED ON SAMPLING IN A GRAVEL BED RIVER

Bedload transport in alluvial channels has been extensively studied and different equations based on field and/or experimental data have been proposed.Prediction of bed-load transport rate using different equations results in wide ranges which are not always reliable.In this study,some of the universal bedload predictors were evaluated with measured load by a Helley-Smith sampler in the Node River,a gravel bed river in the northeast part of Iran.From 19 sets of data,14 series of data were used to evaluate the bed-load transport equations.The results show that the equations presented by Van Rijn,Meyer-Peter and Mueller,and Ackers and White may adequately predict bedload transport in the range of field data.     

Sustainable Water Supply and Demand Management in Semi-arid Regions: Optimizing Water Resources Allocation Based on RCPs Scenarios

Climate as one of the key factors in water resources management affects the amount of water in the hydrological cycle, which subsequently impacts the level of water availability. Considering the challenges that the South Alborz Region, Iran is currently facing in supplying water for various consumers; in this study, the climate change adaptation scenarios are investigated for sustainable water supply and demand. This study uses a procedure in which five different adaptation approaches, under RCPs scenarios, were established using the WEAP model to assess the impacts of various adaptation strategies on increasing the balance between water supply and demand over current and 2020s accounts. The findings suggest an imbalance between supply and demand in the current situation with the greatest imbalance in domestic use while the minimum in the industrial sector. The results of assessing adaptive scenarios show that various scenarios have different effects on balancing the water supply and demand by different consumers; on the other hand, the scenarios that directly affect domestic water demand have the greatest effect on minimizing the gap between supply and demand in the region; therefore, the options for decreasing the population demand along with diminishing the losses in the domestic water distribution network are the most effective alternatives for balancing supply and demand under all of the climate scenarios. The findings of this research indicate that adaptive management with the focus on restricting demand helps actively management of water resources in the regions with scarce water resources.