Emotional ANN (EANN) and Wavelet-ANN (WANN) Approaches for Markovian and Seasonal Based Modeling of Rainfall-Runoff Process

The hydrological time series have three principle components (autoregressive, seasonality and trend) and the performance of the models is strongly related to the nature of these components. The current research examines the accuracy of two Artificial Neural Network (ANN) based approaches for rainfall-runoff (r-r) modeling of two catchments with different geomorphological conditions at monthly and daily time scales. The techniques proposed here are hybrid wavelet-ANN (WANN) model, as a multi-resolution forecasting tool and Emotional Artificial Neural Network (EANN) (a new generation of ANN based models) which serves artificial emotional factors as well as classic bias and weights parameters. The obtained results for monthly modeling show that WANN could perform better than the simple feed forward neural network (FFNN) model up to 40% and 35% in terms of verification and training efficiency criteria due to significant seasonality involved in the monthly time series of the process. On the other hand, the obtained results for daily modeling via FFNN and EANN, both as Markovian models, indicates the superiority of EANN over FFNN because of EANN capability to better learning of extraordinary and extreme conditions of the process in the training phase.     

Dynamic Capabilities and Organizational Performance: A Meta‐Analytic Evaluation and Extension

We move the dynamic capabilities view (DCV) forward in two important ways by meta‐analysing prior empirical studies. First, we evaluate the two core theoretical tenets of the DCV: (1) Dynamic capabilities are positively related to performance, and (2) this relationship is stronger in industries with higher levels of technological dynamism. We find support for the former (r_c = 0.296) but not for the latter, though results suggest the existence of moderators. Second, we theorize and demonstrate empirically that higher‐order dynamic capabilities are more strongly related to performance than lower‐order dynamic capabilities, lower‐order dynamic capabilities partially mediate the relationship between higher‐order dynamic capabilities and performance, and dynamic capabilities contribute more to performance in developing economies than in developed economies. These findings illustrate how the nature of the dynamic capability and the economic context in which it is utilized shape its value, thus offering a more nuanced conceptualization of the dynamic capabilities‐performance relationship.     

Optimal Water Allocation from Subsurface Dams: A Risk-Based Optimization Approach

Subsurface dams, strongly advocated in the 1992 United Nations Agenda-21, have been widely studied to increase groundwater storage capacity. However, an optimal allocation of augmented water with the construction of the subsurface dams to compensate for the water shortage during dry periods has not so far been investigated. This study, therefore, presents a risk-based simulation–optimization framework to determine optimal water allocation with subsurface dams, which minimizes the risk of water shortage in different climatic conditions. The developed framework was evaluated in Al-Aswad falaj, an ancient water supply system in which a gently sloping underground channel was dug to convey water from an aquifer via the gravity force to the surface for irrigation of downstream agricultural zones. The groundwater dynamics were modeled using MODFLOW UnStructured-Grid. The data of boreholes were used to generate a three-dimensional stratigraphic model, which was used to define materials and elevations of five-layer grid cells. The validated groundwater model was employed to assess the effects of the subsurface dam on the discharge of the falaj. A Conditional Value-at-Risk optimization model was also developed to minimize the risk of water shortage for the augmented discharge on downstream agricultural zones. Results show that discharge of the falaj is significantly augmented with a long-term average increase of 46.51%. Moreover, it was found that the developed framework decreases the water shortage percentage in 5% of the worst cases from 87%, 75%, and 32% to 53%, 32%, and 0% under the current and augmented discharge in dry, normal, and wet periods, respectively.

     

University–firm competition in basic research: Simultaneous versus sequential moves

This paper studies the endogenous timing of moves in a game with competition in basic research between a university and a commercial firm. It examines the conditions under which the two entities end up investing in innovation at equilibrium, both under simultaneous and sequential moves. It argues that when the innovation process is not too costly, under any timing, the firm conducts research despite the opportunities for complete free-riding. The two sequential move games with either player as leader emerge as equilibrium endogenous timings, with both entities realizing higher profits in either outcome than in a simultaneous move game. Each entity also profits more by following than by leading. Finally, as a proxy for a welfare analysis, we compare the propensities for innovation across the three scenarios and find that university leadership yields a superior performance. This may be used as a selection criterion to choose the latter scenario as the unique outcome of endogenous timing.     

The Meaning of Corporate Social Responsibility: The Vision of Four Nations

Corporate Social Responsibility (CSR) has existed in name for over 70 years. It is practiced in many countries and it is studied in academia around the world. However, CSR is not a universally adopted concept as it is understood differentially despite increasing pressures for its incorporation into business practices. This lack of a clear definition is complicated by the use of ambiguous terms in the proffered definitions and disputes as to where corporate governance is best addressed by many of the national bodies legislating, mandating, or recommending CSR. This article explores the definitions of CSR as published on the Internet by governments in four countries (United Kingdom (UK), France, the United States, and Canada). We look for a consensus of understanding in an attempt to propose a more universal framework to enhance international adoption and practice of CSR using the triple bottom line. Our results concur with the findings of both national and international bodies and suggest that both within and among the countries in our study there exists no clear definition of the concept of CSR. While there are some similarities, there are substantial differences that must be addressed. We present a number of proposals for a more universal framework to define CSR.     

Conditional versus unconditional persistence of RNOA components: implications for valuation

Financial analysis often involves decomposing variables into components, emphasizing the structured hierarchy among ratios. We distinguish between unconditional persistence (a variable’s autocorrelation coefficient), and conditional persistence (the power of a variable’s persistence to explain the persistence of a variable higher in the hierarchy). We argue that a variable’s conditional persistence determines the magnitude of its market reaction, allowing us to predict the relative magnitude of the market reaction to a ratio depending on its hierarchal level in the analysis. We examine the market reaction to the DuPont ratios and find that, while the unconditional persistence of asset turnover (ATO) is larger than that of operating profit margin (OPM), the conditional persistence of OPM is larger than that of ATO. Thus, we predict and find that the market’s reaction to OPM is stronger than that to ATO. We further decompose OPM and ATO into their second-order components and show that the market reaction depends on a component’s conditional persistence.     

A conceptual framework of adoption of an agricultural innovation

In this paper we present a conceptual framework of individual farmers' decisions on adoption of a new innovation, using the example of a new crop species. This framework overcomes the shortcomings of a number of previous studies. It represents the adoption of an innovation as a dynamic decision problem spanning at least several years. The model allows for generation of potentially valuable information from trialing the innovation. The value of such trials is due to development of skills (e.g. in agronomic management of a crop) as well as reduction in uncertainty about the innovation's long-term profitability. The framework also includes the farmer's personal perceptions, managerial abilities and risk preferences in order to properly represent the adoption decision process. The influences of socio-demographic factors within the framework are discussed.     

Memory-Based Store Price Judgments: The Role of Knowledge and Shopping Experience

This paper investigates the processes underlying consumers’ memory-based store price judgments. The numerosity heuristic implies that the greater the number of relatively lower priced products at a store that consumers can recall, the lower will be their overall price image of the store. That is, people use the number of recalled low-price products to judge the overall store price image. We show that this expectation holds only for knowledgeable consumers. Instead, less knowledgeable consumers use the ease with which low-price products are recalled (i.e., the availability heuristic) as a cue to make store price judgments. Therefore, the fewer low-price products they recall, the easier their recall task, and the lower their price perceptions of the store.Field studies using different manipulations tested and confirmed these predictions. Managerial implications for retailers are offered. Theoretical implications for behavioral price perceptions, memory-based judgments, and the use of heuristic cues are also discussed.     

Embrace the debate: Goals,de-marketing overconsumption,and conflicting information

When faced with conflicting information, consumers often wonder what the “right” consumption level is. A highly relevant context that is often associated with such uncertainty is food consumption (e.g., of meat or dairy products), where consumers seek information to determine whether and how much to consume, and often a recommended goal from health experts is to reduce overconsumption. We apply the theory of goal settings as reflecting such information, focusing on specific goals (e.g., “eat meat twice a week”) versus general goals (“eat less meat”). Based on a series of three experiments in both online and field settings with 674 participants overall, we show that in food consumption contexts with conflicting information, general goals set by health experts are less effective than specific goals in battling overconsumption. Perceived value of information was identified as the underlying mechanism as it mediated the effect of conflicting information on reduced overconsumption. Prior work suggests conflicting information is typically disadvantageous for consumers. Our research demonstrates how consumers can benefit from communication emphasizing specific goals when information conflicts. It contributes to policymakers, health experts, and social marketers that search for effective marketing strategies to reduce overconsumption of items that may be associated with conflicting information.