Labor market institutions and industrial performance: an evolutionary study

This study investigates the impact of labor market institutions on industrial performance from a Schumpeterian perspective. We suggest that labor market institutions play a very important role in the process of creative destruction, because they may create an environment that encourages and enforces innovation, and help to reallocate resources, most importantly labor, through swift elimination of weak performers. We specifically look at the effects of the quantity of labor market regulations and inter-industry wage differentials on labor productivity for a panel of 44 countries for the period 1965–1999. Our findings suggest that those countries that introduce more regulations on conditions of employment and wages achieve higher levels of productivity. Moreover, wage compression raises productivity by reallocating resources to productive activities.     

Do protest responses to a contingent valuation question and a choice experiment differ?

It is suggested that the number of protest responses in stated preference surveys depends, inter alia, on the valuation method used. Choice Experiments (CE) are said to generate a lower number of protest responses than Contingent Valuation (CV). However, no comparison of both methods with respect to protest responses has been conducted to date. We used both CE and CV in a survey on forest biodiversity in two German regions. Protest beliefs were measured for all respondents irrespective of whether they were willing to pay or not. The results show no clear pattern of differences between CE and CV regarding protest beliefs and protest responses. Using an attitude scale based on respondents’ protest beliefs, we see a significant negative effect of this attitude on willingness to pay in both methods. However, in one of the two study regions, the effect is weaker in CE than in CV.      

Perceptions and attitudes following a terrorist shock: Evidence from the UK

Transnational terrorism in Western countries has raised questions about security measures that constrain civil liberties. This is the first paper that uses a terrorist attack, that in the London 7/7/2005, as an exogenous source of variation to study the dynamics of risk perception and the effect on the readiness to trade off civil liberties for enhanced security. In this framework we show that willingness to trade off security for liberties is dramatically affected by changes in individual risk assessments due to a terrorist attack. We document the extent of persistence of changed attitudes.     

The origins of terrorism: Cross-country estimates of socio-economic determinants of terrorism

Prior research has concluded that socio-economic development does not significantly affect terrorism. We take an alternative view. First, we note that a country's socio-economic circumstances affect terrorists' behavior through terrorism's opportunity costs. We argue that this reasoning also holds for the case of supreme value terrorism. Then, we run a series of negative binomial regressions for 110 countries between 1971 and 2007 to test the hypothesis that poor socio-economic development is conducive to terrorism. We find that socio-economic variables indeed matter to terrorism, contrary to other results. Our findings imply that countries can benefit from economic development and growth in terms of a reduction in terrorism.     

The effectiveness of publicity versus advertising: a meta-analytic investigation of its moderators

This study provides an answer to the question whether and under which conditions publicity is more or less effective than advertising. Advertising refers to paid communication that identifies the message sponsor, whereas publicity is communication that secures editorial space in media for promotion purposes and does not have an identifiable sponsor. The primary advantage of advertising over publicity is the sponsor’s control over message content; its disadvantages are audience skepticism and lack of credibility. We investigate this trade-off between credibility effects and effects of recipients’ processing and evaluation of message content. Results of a meta-analytic structural equation model show that the positive credibility effect of publicity is on average about three times as strong as the information evaluation effect, supporting the overall superiority of publicity over advertising. This effect, however, is moderated by prior knowledge and only holds for products about which recipients lack prior knowledge. The effects change for known products when advertising becomes superior. The effectiveness of publicity depends on further moderating variables. In particular, academic studies tend to underestimate the true effects of publicity over advertising due to experimental manipulations. Campaigns that combine publicity and advertising weaken the effects of publicity, whereas advertorials (i.e., advertisements disguised as editorial material) are more effective, since they combine the advantages of both publicity and advertising. The results have theoretical and practical implications.     

FDI and Income Inequality—Evidence from Latin American Economies

This paper analyzes whether foreign direct investment (FDI) has contributed to the wide income gaps in Latin America. Panel cointegration techniques as well as regression analysis are performed to assess the impact of inward FDI stocks on income inequality among households in Latin American host countries. The panel cointegration analysis typically reveals a significant and positive effect on income inequality. There is no evidence for reverse causality. The findings are fairly robust to the choice of different estimation methods, sample selection and the period of observation.     

Is inequality an inevitable by-product of skill-biased technical change?

This article examines trends in relative wages between high- and medium-skilled workers and between medium- and low-skilled workers in Finland, Germany, Italy, South Korea and the US over the period 1970–2005. It is found that there are large differences in the evolution wage inequality across the countries in our sample, with some countries showing a long-run upward trend in relative wages (such as the US, Germany and Italy) and others showing a long-run downward trend (such as Finland and Korea). The main conclusion from our results is that inequality is not an inevitable by-product of technological change.     

Survey-based forecast distributions for Euro Area growth and inflation: ensembles versus histograms

Ensemble methods can be used to construct a forecast distribution from a collection of point forecasts. They are used extensively in meteorology, but have received little direct attention in economics. In a real-time analysis of the ECB’s Survey of Professional Forecasters, we compare ensemble methods to histogram-based forecast distributions of GDP growth and inflation in the Euro Area. We find that ensembles perform very similarly to histograms, while being simpler to handle in practice. Given the wide availability of surveys that collect point forecasts but not histograms, these results suggest that ensembles deserve further investigation in economics.     

Information Cascades in the Labor Market

A model of herding behavior in the labor market is presented where employers receive signals with limited precision about the workers types, and can observe previous employers decisions. Both the employer and the worker can influence the signal probabilities. In particular, the employer tries to increase the precision of the signal about the workers type whereas the worker wants to get a good signal, independent of her type. In a two-period model, we derive conditions for an equilibrium in which only down-cascades occur, i.e., the second employer does not hire a worker with a bad history even if he receives a favorable private signal about the workers type, but he follows his own signal if the workers history is good.