Survey-based forecast distributions for Euro Area growth and inflation: ensembles versus histograms

Ensemble methods can be used to construct a forecast distribution from a collection of point forecasts. They are used extensively in meteorology, but have received little direct attention in economics. In a real-time analysis of the ECB’s Survey of Professional Forecasters, we compare ensemble methods to histogram-based forecast distributions of GDP growth and inflation in the Euro Area. We find that ensembles perform very similarly to histograms, while being simpler to handle in practice. Given the wide availability of surveys that collect point forecasts but not histograms, these results suggest that ensembles deserve further investigation in economics.     

Gender differences in positive perceptions,anxiety, and depression among mothers and fathers of children with intellectual disabilities: a logistic regression analysis

This study explores gender differences in positive perceptions, anxiety, and depression among mothers and fathers of children with intellectual disabilities (IDs). We examined the relationship between these variables and certain characteristics of both the child (age and severity of disability) and the parents (age, educational level, and employment status). A sample of 60 mother/father couples who had children with IDs completed the Positive Contributions Scale to measure their positive perceptions, and the Hospital Anxiety and Depression Scale to assess their level of anxiety and depression. Bivariate analyses were used to determine differences between fathers and mothers as regards their positive perceptions and levels of anxiety and depression. A logistic regression model was then applied to identify which of the variables might be significant predictors of the gender differences observed among parents. Both mothers and fathers had positive perceptions of their children with IDs that co-existed with symptoms of anxiety and depression, with scores being higher among mothers. The predictive analysis of gender showed that individual variables (such as the employment status of both parents) may explain these differences.     

The role of direct flights in trade costs

Effects of direct flights on trade costs are investigated using micro price data at the city level. After controlling for local retail/distribution costs, traded input prices are obtained to be further used in the measurement of trade costs across cities through arbitrage conditions. The existence of a direct flight enters trade costs regressions negatively and significantly. The results are shown to be robust to the consideration of many control variables, nonlinearities in the effects of distance on trade costs, possible endogeneity of having direct flights between cities and alternative definitions of the data. The direct flights that are shown to be determined by bilateral air services agreements are further shown to reduce trade costs through an endogeneity analysis; the main policy implications are twofold: (i) international trade policies through aviation services, such as Open Skies Agreements of the US, are alternative trade policy tools to reduce international trade barriers; (ii) direct flights facilitate the integration of internal markets as in the case of European Union.     

海南高新技术产业发展探讨

实现海南产业超前发展战略,大力发展高新技术产业是重要的突破口.海南高新技术产业发展已进入了迅速成长并日益成熟的发展阶段,呈现良好的发展态势和广阔的发展前景,同时也面临着严峻的挑战,其发展需要建立健全高新技术产业目标体系、高新技术产业管理体系、高新技术产业发展体系、高新技术产业扶持体系.     

Testing the impact of predefined and self-defined end anchors on the linearity of the category rating scale

In this research the impact of two types of end anchors on the linearity of the category rating scale is studied. Two functional measurement experiments were carried out, each requiring a different kind of judgement, i.e., job satisfaction ratings and attractiveness ratings. One group of participants rated the stimuli using a category rating scale with fixed anchors, while another group was presented with a self-anchoring category rating scale. The results indicate that researchers can be confident in the ability of both category rating scales to provide linear data. This implies that the different end anchors do not impact on the linearity of the category rating scale.     

Daily diaries in time use surveys. A solution to overcome measurement problems in single-activity events with long characteristic rhythms

Daily diaries are a widely used measurement tool in studies on the use of social time. However, while their high level of accuracy is supported by a lot of research, scholars often voice doubts regarding the validity of the estimates obtained if the characteristic rhythm of the events in question is not completed within a 24-h period. This study attempts to explain why, although these statistics are not wrong, they need to be understood correctly before proceeding with research based on them. To overcome the problem we will propose a solution for new surveys where use of diaries of this type is scheduled. Although this solution is not without limitations, they are much less restrictive than those imposed by traditional daily diaries.     

Wage mobility in Europe. A comparative analysis using restricted multinomial logit regression

The paper investigates cross-country differences in wage mobility in Europe using the European Community Household Panel. We examine the impact of specific wage-setting institutions, such as the collective bargaining and the trade union density, the employment protection regulation and the welfare state regime on wage mobility. We apply a log-linear approach that is very much similar to a restricted multinomial logit model and much more flexible than the standard probit approach that is typically applied in the research on wage mobility. It is shown that the macro-economic context and the aforementioned specific institutions explain a substantial part of the cross-country variation that is larger than the part that regime type explains. The findings also confirm the existence of an inverse U-shape pattern of wage mobility, showing a great deal of low-wage and high-wage persistence in all countries.     

Applying fuzzy quality function deployment to identify service management requirements for customer quality needs

In this paper a fuzzy quality function deployment to identify service management requirements for customer quality needs is developed. First, customer quality needs with importance degree have been investigated followed by development of service management requirements for satisfying the observed customer quality needs. Furthermore, construct a fuzzy relation matrix to link service management requirements and customer quality needs based on cross-functional expertise. The aggregated fuzzy assessments of various service management requirements are ranked to determine their importance priority. Finally, an empirical study for identifying the service management requirements for customer quality is used to demonstrate the proposed approach.     

保险公司诉讼与诉讼预期相关性研究

近年来我国保险诉讼案件增势不减,有的历经一审、二审,有的还要再审。从媒体披露的结果看,保险公司无论作为原告还是被告,似乎都是胜少败多。本文通过对北京某人寿保险股份有限公司2005年～2008年诉讼、诉讼预期数据的实证调研,探讨保险公司诉讼预期是否实现及实现程度,在此基础上提出更理性、更具可操作性的建议。