Estimating the effectiveness of extension information systems using farm trials and subjective probabilities

A method of combining survey data and Dairy Herd Improvement Association (DHIA) records to achieve low cost farm trials is presented. Farm trials and surveys of current practices and production responses are useful to identify yield gaps between expectations predicted from experimental findings and actual field results. Different management schemes can be ranked using subjective probabilities and stochastic dominance to enhance successful implementation of research findings and to increase the feedback between researchers, extension workers, and producers. A survey of current masitis control practices and expected milk yield response is the example. Combining survey results with DHIA records allowed estimating the relationship between somatic cell counts (SCC) and milk yield. Eliciting beliefs about the relationship between SCC and milk yield showed that producers agreed with predictions from the statistical model. Subjective probabilities about SCC and mastitis control practices showed that our sample of experts and producers consistently ranked the different practices but extension agents had no consensus about the the most or least effective ones.     

Competition and structural change in Eastern Europe

Widely publicized reform programs for East Europe which emphasize rapid privatization are questioned on the grounds that structural changes to assure workable competition take precedence and will take years. A mix of deconcentrated state, cooperative, worker-owned, private, and foreignowned business can be workable. Import competition and antitrust legislation have auxiliary roles.     

Development and the mystification of ‘cultural factors’: One destiny: Our common future in Africa,by A S van Niekerk

In One destiny: Our common future in Africa the author relates, in popular fashion, a series of incidents which convinced him that the basic difference between black and white in South Africa is cultural deep‐seated and the cause of underdevelopment and conflict He develops a circular argument in which world‐view is taken as the root of perceptions, values and activities. The effects of experience and economic and political factors are given secondary importance. This argument cannot accommodate social change and differentiation, and the author tends to concentrate on perceptions and events which he finds morally unacceptable. He gives an unbalanced assessment and an ethnocentric interpretation of African life. Possible reasons for this type of argument are explored and an alternative which takes its departure from the interaction between experience and perception is offered     

Simulation of sulfide buildup in wastewater and atmosphere of sewer networks.

A model concept for prediction of sulfide buildup in sewer networks is presented. The model concept is an extension to--and a further development of--the WATS model (Wastewater Aerobic-anaerobic Transformations in Sewers), which has been developed by Hvitved-Jacobsen and co-workers at Aalborg University. In addition to the sulfur cycle, the WATS model simulates changes in dissolved oxygen and carbon fractions of different biodegradability. The sulfur cycle was introduced via six processes: 1. sulfide production taking place in the biofilm covering the permanently wetted sewer walls; 2. biological sulfide oxidation in the permanently wetted biofilm; 3. chemical and biological sulfide oxidation in the water phase; 4. sulfide precipitation with metals present in the wastewater; 5. emission of hydrogen sulfide to the sewer atmosphere and 6. adsorption and oxidation of hydrogen sulfide on the moist sewer walls where concrete corrosion may take place.     

CAN INEFFICIENT TRADERS CREATE VALUE?

I examine the aggregate expected profit generated by informed traders of diverse ability in a competitive market. I assume that efficient traders get perfect information on asset values whereas inefficient traders get noisy information. In the presence of order size restrictions, I show that the aggregate expected profit generated by efficient and inefficient traders together can be higher than that generated by efficient traders alone. Thus, inefficient traders can create value in a constrained trading environment.     

Cointegration Vector Estimation by Panel DOLS and Long‐run Money Demand*

We study the panel dynamic ordinary least square (DOLS) estimator of a homogeneous cointegration vector for a balanced panel of N individuals observed over T time periods. Allowable heterogeneity across individuals include individual‐specific time trends, individual‐specific fixed effects and time‐specific effects. The estimator is fully parametric, computationally convenient, and more precise than the single equation estimator. For fixed N as T→∞, the estimator converges to a function of Brownian motions and the Wald statistic for testing a set of s linear constraints has a limiting χ²(s) distribution. The estimator also has a Gaussian sequential limit distribution that is obtained first by letting T→∞ and then letting N→∞. In a series of Monte‐Carlo experiments, we find that the asymptotic distribution theory provides a reasonably close approximation to the exact finite sample distribution. We use panel DOLS to estimate coefficients of the long‐run money demand function from a panel of 19 countries with annual observations that span from 1957 to 1996. The estimated income elasticity is 1.08 (asymptotic s.e. = 0.26) and the estimated interest rate semi‐elasticity is ?0.02 (asymptotic s.e. = 0.01).     

Initial Public Offerings: CFO Perceptions

We examine four issues pertaining to initial public offerings (IPOs) using a survey of 438 chief financial officers (CFOs). First, why do firms go public? Second, is CFO sentiment stationary across bear and bull markets? Third, what concerns CFOs about going public? Fourth, do CFO perceptions correlate with returns? Results support funding for growth and liquidity as the primary reasons for IPOs. CFO sentiment is generally stationary in pre‐ and post‐bubble years. Managers are concerned with the direct costs of going public, such as underwriting fees, as well as indirect costs. We find a negative relation between a focus on immediate growth and long‐term abnormal returns.     

Nitrogen management in reservoir catchments through constructed wetland systems.

In this study, nitrogen removal was investigated in pilot-scale subsurface flow (SSF) and in free water surface flow (FWS) constructed wetlands installed in the campus of TUBITAK-Marmara Research Center, Gebze, near Istanbul, Turkey. The main purposes of this study are to apply constructed wetlands for the protection of water reservoirs and to reuse wastewater. Experiments were carried out at continuous flow reactors. The effects of the type of plants on the removal were investigated by using emergent (Canna, Cyperus, Typhia spp., Phragmites spp., Juncus, Poaceae, Paspalum and Iris.), submerged (Elodea, Egeria) and floating (Pistia, Salvina and Lemna) marsh plants at different conditions. During the study period HLRs were 30, 50, 70, 80 and 120 L m(2)d(-1) respectively. The average annual NH4-N, NO(3)-N, organic N and TN treatment efficiencies in SSF and FWS wetlands are 81% and 68%, 37% and 49%, 75% and 68%, 47% and 53%, respectively. Nitrification, denitrification and ammonification rate constant (k20) values in SSF and FNS systems have been found as 0.898 d(-1) and 0.541 d(-1), 0.488 d(-1) and 0.502 d(-1), 0.986 d(-1) and 0.908 respectively. Two types of the models (first-order plug flow and multiple regression) were tried to estimate the system performances.     

Are differences in firm size transitory or permanent?

An Erratum for this article has been published in Journal of Applied Econometrics 18(2) 2003, 249 Previous empirical work on corporate growth rates using cross‐section or short‐panel econometric techniques suggests that growth rates are random but that some degree of mean reversion exists. This means that size differences between firms are transitory. Another, more natural way to explore the long‐run distribution of firm sizes is to examine data on the growth of particular firms over long periods of time. Using a sample of 147 UK firms observed continually for more than 30 years, our conclusions are that growth rates are highly variable over time and that differences in growth rates between firms do not persist for very long. Further, firms show no tendency to converge to either a common size or to a pattern of stable size differences over time. These results are compared and contrasted with standard approaches that suggest that firms reach and maintain stable positions in a skewed size distribution. Copyright © 2002 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.