Forecasting first births

This study is concerned with one aspect of the family cycle, namely, the transition from young married to young married with small children. The focus is on developing models to forecast entries into this latter stage for the purpose of marketing research. "Using ordinary least squares, forecasting models were estimated for (1) total number of first births, (2) number of white first births, and (3) number of nonwhite first births." Models are estimated for both the United States and California using data from official sources.     

Working towards sustainable urban water management: the vulnerability blind spot

The unprecedented water scarcity in Australia coincides with the adoption of a new urban water rhetoric. The 'Security through Diversity' strategy has been adopted in a number of Australian cities as a new and innovative approach to urban water management. Although this strategy offers a more holistic approach to urban water management, in practice, the Security through Diversity strategy is largely being interpreted and implemented in a way that maintains the historical dependence on large scale, centralised water infrastructure and therefore perpetuates existing urban water vulnerabilities. This research explores the implementation of Security through Diversity as the new water scarcity response strategy in the cities of Perth and Melbourne. Through a qualitative study with over sixty-five urban water practitioners, the results reveal that the practitioners have absorbed the new Security through Diversity language whilst maintaining the existing problem and solution framework for urban water management. This can be explained in terms of an entrenched technological path dependency and cognitive lock-in that is preventing practitioners from more comprehensively engaging with the complexities of the Security through Diversity strategy, which is ultimately perpetuating the existing vulnerability of our cities. This paper suggests that greater engagement with the underlying purpose of the security though diversity strategy is a necessary first step to overcome the constraints of the traditional technological paradigm and more effectively reduce the continued vulnerability of Australian cities.     

锦屏二级水电站3#引水隧洞有盖重防渗固结灌浆试验

本文介绍了锦屏二级水电站3#引水隧洞有盖重防渗固结灌浆试验的施工方法和试验参数。通过防渗固结灌浆试验,总结出在灌浆施工中应及时采集的相关信息和采取的施工工艺,既保证了施工质量又保证了施工速度