Hedging,Financing and Investment Decisions: A Simultaneous Equations Framework

We empirically investigate the interactions among hedging, financing, and investment decisions. We argue that the way in which hedging affects a firm's financing and investing decisions differs for firms with different growth opportunities. We find that high growth firms increase their investment, but not leverage, by hedging. However, we also find that firms with few investment opportunities use derivatives to increase their leverage.     

Removal of E. coli and helminth eggs in UASB: Polishing pond systems in Brazil.

Ponds following anaerobic reactors, such as Upflow Anaerobic Sludge Blanket (UASB) reactors, have been termed polishing ponds in the literature. The present paper analyses the removal of E. coli and helminth eggs in five UASB-polishing pond systems in Brazil. Since there were ponds in series, the total number of ponds was 10. The ponds had average retention times varying from 2 to 21 days, and depths ranging from 0.40 to 2.00 m. The shallow ponds in series, even with low retention times, were able to produce effluents complying with the coliform WHO guidelines for unrestricted irrigation (< or = 1000 MPN/100 ml). An equation for the coliform decay coefficient was proposed: Kb (dispersed flow) = 0.710H(-0955) (20 degrees C). The equation highlights the inverse relationship between the pond depth and the decay coefficient. All polishing pond systems were able to produce effluents with helminth eggs concentrations predominantly equal to zero, and satisfying the WHO guidelines for unrestricted and restricted irrigation (< or = 1 egg/L, arithmetic mean). The approximate range of helminth eggs removal efficiency was predicted satisfactorily.     

Through Trial and Error to Collusion*

In this article we study a very simple trial and error learning process in the context of a Cournot oligopoly. Without any knowledge of the payoff functions players increase, respectively decrease, their quantity as long as this leads to higher profits. We show that despite the absence of any coordination or punishing device this process converges to the joint‐profit‐maximizing outcome.     

Non-point sources and the waste discharge charge system.

The development of a waste discharge charge system (WDCS) in South Africa has been proposed to promote waste reduction and water conservation. The WDCS is based on the polluter pays principle and is designed such that the management of waste discharges achieves resource quality objectives (RQOs) at the minimum total cost to the catchment. Two charges are distinguished: first a charge for optimising use of the resource (incentive charge); and secondly, a charge for development and operation of mitigation measures in the resource (mitigation charge). The WDCS is applied to both point sources and non-point sources (NPS) of contamination. In the inclusion of NPS, the charge system distinguishes between registered and non-registered NPS, with the charge applied to the former group only, in the first instance. This paper introduces the WDCS by describing the principles and the theoretical basis of the WDCS, highlighting the link to RQOs as the benchmark of acceptable externalities. The paper explores the inclusion of NPS in the WDCS, describing: first, the principles of NPS inclusion in the WDCS; secondly, the types of NPS included in the present version of the WDCS; thirdly, the methodology for charge estimation; and finally, non-registered NPS and their potential inclusion in future editions of the WDCS. The paper concludes with remarks and challenges facing the first edition of the WDCS.     

A theoretical framework to evaluate different margin‐setting methodologies

The margin system is the first line of defense against the default risk of a clearinghouse. From the perspectives of a clearinghouse, the utmost concern is to have a prudential system to control the default exposure. Once the level of prudentiality is set, the next concern will be the opportunity cost of the investors, because high opportunity cost discourages people from hedging futures, and thus defeats the function of a futures market. In this article, we first develop different measures of prudentiality and opportunity cost. We then formulate a statistical framework to evaluate different margin‐setting methodologies, all of which strike a balance between prudentiality and opportunity cost. Three margin‐setting methodologies, namely, (1) using simple moving averages; (2) using exponentially weighted moving averages; (3) using a GARCH approach, are applied to the Hang Seng Index futures. Keeping the same prudentiality level, it is shown that the one using a GARCH approach by and large gives the lowest average overcharge. © 2004 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Jrl Fut Mark 24:117–145, 2004     

The index futures markets: Is screen trading more efficient?

This article uses a nonparametric test based on the arc‐sine law (see, e.g., Feller, 1965 ), which involves comparing the theoretical distribution implied by an intraday random walk with the empirical frequency distribution of the daily high/low times, in order to address the question of whether the abandonment of pit trading has been associated with greater market efficiency. If market inefficiencies result from flaws in the market microstructure of pit trading, they ought to have been eliminated by the introduction of screen trading. If, on the other hand, the inefficiencies are a reflection of investor psychology, they are likely to have survived, unaffected by the changeover. We focus here on four cases. Both the FTSE‐100 and CAC‐40 index futures contracts were originally traded by open outcry and have moved over to electronic trading in recent years, so that we are able to compare pricing behavior before and after the changeover. The equivalent contracts in Germany and Korea, on the other hand, have been traded electronically ever since their inception. Our results overwhelmingly reject the random‐walk hypothesis both for open‐outcry and electronic‐trading data sets, suggesting there has been no increase in efficiency as a result of the introduction of screen trading. One possible explanation consistent with our results would be that the index futures market is characterized by intraday overreaction. © 2004 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Jrl Fut Mark 24:337–357, 2004     

An empirical analysis of the relationship between the hedge ratio and hedging horizon: A simultaneous estimation of the short‐ and long‐run hedge ratios

This article analyzes the effects of the length of hedging horizon on the optimal hedge ratio and hedging effectiveness using 9 different hedging horizons and 25 different commodities. We discuss the concept of short‐ and long‐run hedge ratios and propose a technique to simultaneously estimate them. The empirical results indicate that the short‐run hedge ratios are significantly less than 1 and increase with the length of hedging horizon. We also find that hedging effectiveness increases with the length of hedging horizon. However, the long‐run hedge ratio is found to be close to the naïve hedge ratio of unity. This implies that, if the hedging horizon is long, then the naïve hedge ratio is close to the optimum hedge ratio. © 2004 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Jrl Fut Mark 24:359–386, 2004     

Rural Population Growth, 1950–1990: The Roles of Human Capital, Industry Structure, and Government Policy

Human capital raises rural incomes, but this effect is swamped by higher returns to human capital in urban markets. This leads to "brain drain" from rural areas. Populations grow more rapidly in rural counties that have a diversified employment base. Farm population grows faster (or declines more slowly) in counties with relatively high farm income, and nonfarm populations grow faster in counties with relatively high nonfarm income. However, higher farm incomes lead to slower nonfarm population growth and vice versa. Rural county government services financed by local taxes or debt have neutral or negative effects on population growth.     

General‐to‐Specific Model Selection Procedures for Structural Vector Autoregressions*

Structural vector autoregressive (SVAR) models have emerged as a dominant research strategy in empirical macroeconomics, but suffer from the large number of parameters employed and the resulting estimation uncertainty associated with their impulse responses. In this paper, we propose general‐to‐specific (Gets) model selection procedures to overcome these limitations. It is shown that single‐equation procedures are generally efficient for the reduction of recursive SVAR models. The small‐sample properties of the proposed reduction procedure (as implemented using PcGets) are evaluated in a realistic Monte Carlo experiment. The impulse responses generated by the selected SVAR are found to be more precise and accurate than those of the unrestricted VAR. The proposed reduction strategy is then applied to the US monetary system considered by Christiano, Eichenbaum and Evans (Review of Economics and Statistics, Vol. 78, pp. 16–34, 1996) . The results are consistent with the Monte Carlo and question the validity of the impulse responses generated by the full system.