Global instability in experimental general equilibrium: the Scarf example

Scarf (Int. Econ. Rev. 1 (1960) 157) proposed a model of dynamic adjustment in which the standard tatonnement price adjustment process orbits around, rather than converges to, the competitive equilibrium. Hirota (Int. Econ. Rev. 22 (1981) 461) characterized the price paths. We explore the predictions of Scarf's model in a non-tatonnement experimental double auction. The average transaction prices in each period do follow the path predicted by the Scarf and Hirota models. When the model predicts convergence the data converge; when the model predicts orbits, the data orbit in the direction predicted by the model. Moreover, we observe a weak tendency for prices within a period to follow the path predicted by the model.     

REGULATORY NEGOTIATION IN AUTOMOBILE INSURANCE REFORM

Tort reform of the motor accident insurance compensation scheme in the Australian state of New South Wales in 1999 came about as a result of an untested experiment in regulatory negotiation. This article is a first-hand account of the successful attempt to craft a consensual modification of the scheme through deliberations among a working group of service provider representatives. The author, a Canadian lawyer, investigated the prospects for change, acted as chief negotiator, and observed the legislative process that led to the final law reform.     

Average Monotonic Cooperative Games

A subclass of monotonic transferable utility (T.U.) games is studied: average monotonic games. These games are totally balanced. We prove that the core coincides with both the bargaining set à la Davis and Maschler and the bargaining set à la Mas-Colell. To obtain this result a technique based on reduced games is used. Journal of Economic Literature Classification Number: C71     

Monopoly Rents and Price Fixing in Betting Markets

Betting markets provide an ideal environment in which to examinemonopoly power due to the availability of detailed information on product pricing. In this paper we argue that the pricing strategies of companies in the U.K. betting industry are likely to be an important source of monopoly rents, particularly in the market for forecast bets. Pricing in these markets are shown to be explicitly coordinated. Further, price information is asymmetrically biased in favor of producers. We find evidence, based on U.K. data, that pricing of CSF bets is characterized by a significantly higher markup than pricing of single bets. Although this differential can in part be explained by the preferences of bettors, it is reasonable to attribute a significant part of the differential as being due to monopoly power.     

Valley floor landscape change following almost 100 years of flood embankment abandonment on a wandering gravel‐bed river

Critical to restoring the nature conservation value of many river corridors is an understanding of how alluvial landscapes will respond to cessation of river management and land use practices that have previously degraded the environment. This paper analyses changes in valley floor landforms and vegetation patch dynamics, in relation to fluvial disturbance, over a period of almost 100 years following flood embankment abandonment on a wandering gravel‐bed river, namely the River Tummel, Scotland. Such rivers were once typical of many draining upland areas of northern maritime Europe. Prior to abandonment the valley floor landscape was agriculturally dominated and the river for the most part was single thread confined between flood embankments. The pattern of landform change and vegetation patch development over time following a decision in 1903 not to maintain embankments was tracked by geomorphic and land cover mapping utilizing successive sets of aerial photography for the period 1946 to 1994. A historical context for these changes was also feasible because the channel planform in 1900 and earlier channel planform changes dating back to 1753 were known due to the availability of old maps and earlier geomorphic studies. The land cover mapping was validated by comparison of results produced from the interpretation work on the 1994 aerial photographs with the field‐based UK National Vegetation Classification protocol. The findings of the study illustrate that bordering the River Tummel fluvial landforms and vegetation patch mosaics, presumably resembling those that occurred before valley floor land use intensification, evolved in less than 50 years after flood embankment abandonment with a resultant increase in habitat diversity. The change relates primarily to flood‐induced channel planform change and moderate levels of fluvial disturbance. The general significance of this change to plant species diversity on the valley floor of the River Tummel and elsewhere is discussed as is possible implications of the upstream impoundment and scenarios for climatically induced changes in flood frequency and magnitude. The overall outcome is the strong possibility that simple changes in river management and land use practices could result in re‐establishment of the nature conservation value of similar river corridors in Europe over the medium term without active restoration efforts. Copyright © 2002 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Finding Pareto Optimal Insurance Contracts

This paper deals with on-line computation—or step-wise learning—of Pareto optimal insurance contracts. Our approach tolerates that the loss distribution might be unknown, intractable, or not well specified. Thus we accommodate fairly inexperienced parties. Losses are here simulated or observed, one at a time, and they cause iterated revisions of the premium. The mechanical and global nature of probability calculus thereby yields to more tentative, myopic procedures, possibly closer to how humans operate or reason in face of risk. Sequential revisions may also reduce the expense of insurers' time and money in seeking sufficient statistics. Emphasized below is the remarkable simplicity and stability of the resulting adaptive procedures. Special attention goes to catastrophic risks, and to subsidized or competitive insurance.     

Substantiation of the selection of the designs of a hydraulic-fill dam for the upper reservoirs of pumped-storage stations

Conclusion On the basis of the foregoing conditions about the design of hydraulic-fill dams and technology of their construction and also with consideration of the results of comparative calculations of the permeability of these dams, for the upper reservoirs of pumped-storage stations we can recommend dams which have reliable impervious elements, namely, a diaphragm, facing, or placed clay core.Translated from Gidrotekhnicheskoe Stroitel'stvo, No. 5, pp. 31–35, May, 1985.     

A note on “Bed allocation techniques based on census data”

Capacity planning and resource allocation are crucial to the cost-effective delivery of health care services. In this paper, we present an analytic approach based on a modified version of the Holt-Winters multiplicative seasonality forecasting model to determine the frequency distribution associated with a hospital care unit's census. This paper is a follow-up to the census frequency distribution simulation model described in Lapierre et al. (Socio Econ. Plan. Sci. 33 (1999) 25). We demonstrate that our model can provide census frequency distributions equivalent to the simulation model of Lapierre et al. [1], but without the computational effort common to simulation models.