Are financial spreads useful indicators of future inflation and output growth in EU countries?

This paper seeks to address the policy issue of the usefulness of financial spreads as indicators of future inflation and output growth in the countries of the European Union, placing a particular focus on out-of-sample forecasting performance. Such analysis is of considerable relevance to monetary authorities, given the breakdown of the money/income relation in a number of countries and following increased emphasis of domestic monetary policy on control of inflation following the broadening of the ERM bands. The results confirm that for some countries, financial spread variables do contain some information about future output growth and inflation, with the yield curve and the reverse yield gap performing best. However, the relatively poor out-of-sample forecasting performance and/or parameter instability suggests that the need for caution in using spread variables for forecasting in EU countries. Only a small number of spreads contain information, and improve forecasting in a manner which is stable over time. © 1997 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

共同会计价值观导向下的全球财务报告教育与研究——以美国为例

本文从考察全球财务报告与美国公认会计原则(GAAP)的关系入手,讨论了全球财务报告课程中应涵盖的内容以及业界对财务报告普遍存在的一些误解。探讨了会计理论研究如何发挥对准则制定的指导作用,以及为什么理论研究能对准则制定有重要指导作用,在此基础上,提出了与国际会计准则理事会的技术议程以及与财务报告全球化相关的研究课题。     

Hans Kellerer (1902 bis 1976) zum Gedenden

Ohne Zusammenfassung     

On the robustness of the fat-tailed distribution of firm growth rates: a global sensitivity analysis

Firms grow and decline by relatively lumpy jumps which cannot be accounted by the cumulation of small, “atom-less”, independent shocks. Rather “big” episodes of expansion and contraction are relatively frequent. More technically, this is revealed by the fat-tailed distributions of growth rates. This applies across different levels of sectoral disaggregation, across countries, over different historical periods for which there are available data. What determines such property? In Dosi et al. (The footprint of evolutionary processes of learning and selection upon the statistical properties of industrial dynamics. Industrial and corporate change. Oxford University Press, Oxford, 2016) we implemented a simple multi-firm evolutionary simulation model, built upon the coupling of a replicator dynamic and an idiosyncratic learning process, which turns out to be able to robustly reproduce such a stylized fact. Here, we investigate, by means of a Kriging meta-model, how robust such “ubiquitousness” feature is with regard to a global exploration of the parameters space. The exercise confirms the high level of generality of the results in a statistically robust global sensitivity analysis framework.