The evaluation stage in marketing decision making

Prior to making important decisions, marketing managers go through an evaluation process in which available alternatives are compared. Yet, no systematic discussion of the evaluation process exists in the marketing literature. This article reviews the marketing and behavioral decision theory literature in order to identify factors that may cause errors in the two fundamental elements of the evaluation process—the estimation of probabilities and the determination of the value of outcomes. Propositions are developed that specify circumstances in which marketing management decisions may be influenced by judgmental biases, and procedures are identified for debiasing such judgments.     

The composition of interest: The judaic prohibition

An interest charge is made up of an award for waiting known as the real rate of interest, a premium for risk and compensation for transaction costs. Where inflation exists the lender seeks further compensation. In order to understand the composition and evolution of different versions of the usury prohibition it is necessary to ask which components of an interest charge are prohibited by each version. The Judaic prohibition has two aspects which are of particular interest to business historians and students of usury. First, the general rule is that a reward for waiting is prohibited. This focuses on the time-based part of interest charge. Second, interest is prohibited because it amounts to placing a stumbling block before the blind. This focuses on the typical gullibility of the borrower confronted by a more expert, better funded lender. Economics confirms and enriches our understanding of these important aspects of the prohibition. They achieve this by increasing our understanding of two facts: first, that the borrower is a gullible individual subject to irrational and inconsistent behaviour; and, second, that this behaviour relates to the waiting aspect of interest which is proscribed in the prohibition. How far these insights apply to other civilisations' prohibition, particularly those which derive from the Judaic prohibition, merits further study; so also do the ethical lessons of the Mosaic rules for a globalised society based on capitalism.     

Exploitation rate,survival and movements of brown trout (Salmo trutta L.) stocked at takeable size in the regulated rivers Lågen and Otta,southern Norway

Takeable size (age 4⁺, length 27–67cm), hatchery reared brown trout (Salmo trutta L.) were released into the rivers Lågen and Otta, the Glomma River System, southern Norway, in May-July 1981 and 1983–87. The brown trout released in May gave significantly lower recapture rates compared to those released in June/July, i.e. 22.8 per cent compared to 41.6–58.0 per cent, respectively. Mean exploitation rate and survival rates ranged from 0.23 to 0.58 and 0.2 to 0.4, respectively, Within 15 days after release 50 per cent were recaptured, and 90 per cent were caught within 67 days. The frequency of recapture increased significantly with fish length in the length interval 30–45 cm, but decreased for bigger fish. The stocked brown trout were stationary and 95 per cent of the recaptures were caught less than 1 km from the site of release. Frequency of recapture ranged from 19.2 to 54.7 per cent in 6 experiments with takeable sized brown trout in different tributaries of the Glomma River System, and the variations are probably mainly due to differences in fishing pressure.     

Simulation of sulfide buildup in wastewater and atmosphere of sewer networks.

A model concept for prediction of sulfide buildup in sewer networks is presented. The model concept is an extension to--and a further development of--the WATS model (Wastewater Aerobic-anaerobic Transformations in Sewers), which has been developed by Hvitved-Jacobsen and co-workers at Aalborg University. In addition to the sulfur cycle, the WATS model simulates changes in dissolved oxygen and carbon fractions of different biodegradability. The sulfur cycle was introduced via six processes: 1. sulfide production taking place in the biofilm covering the permanently wetted sewer walls; 2. biological sulfide oxidation in the permanently wetted biofilm; 3. chemical and biological sulfide oxidation in the water phase; 4. sulfide precipitation with metals present in the wastewater; 5. emission of hydrogen sulfide to the sewer atmosphere and 6. adsorption and oxidation of hydrogen sulfide on the moist sewer walls where concrete corrosion may take place.     

Treatment of municipal wastewater UASB reactor effluent by unconventional flotation and UV disinfection.

Post-treatment of an UASB reactor effluent, fed with domestic sewage, was conducted using two-stage flotation and UV disinfection. Results were compared to those obtained in a parallel stabilisation pond. The first flotation stage employed 5 - 7.5 mg L(-1) cationic flocculant to separate off more than 99% of the suspended solids. Then, phosphate ions were completely recovered using carrier flotation with 5-25 mg L(-1) of Fe (FeCl3) at pH 6.3-7.0. This staged flotation led to high recoveries of water and allowed us to separate organic matter and phosphate bearing sludge. The water still contained about 1 x 10(2) NMP/100 mL total coliforms, which were removed using UV radiation to below detection levels. Final water turbidity was < 1.0 NTU, COD < 20 mg L(-1) O2 and 71 mNm(-1), the liquid/air interfacial tension. This flotation-UV flowsheet was found to be more efficient than the treatment in the stabilisation pond and appears to have some potential for water reuse. Results were discussed in terms of the biological, chemical and physicochemical mechanisms involved.     

Hydrological simulations in the Rhine basin.

Simulations with regional climate models (RCMs), carried out for the Rhine basin, have been analyzed in the context of implications of the possible future discharge of the Rhine river. In a first analysis, the runoff generated by the RCMs is compared to observations, in order to detect the way the RCMs treat anomalies in precipitation in their land surface component. A second analysis is devoted to the frequency distribution of area averaged precipitation, and the impact of selection of various driving global climate models.     

Use of 3D modelling and several ultrasound sensors to assess overflow rate.

A new instrumentation mode has been put in place in order to determine the overflow rate of five complex CSOs of the system in Sélestat (French), which are subject to self monitoring. 3D and 1D models have made it possible to predict the shapes of the water lines and suggest a location for the ultrasound sensors. In order to validate the instrumentation principle, three overhead sensors were placed on a weir. The overflow laws suggested are of the type Q(overflow) = a1h1b1 + a2h2b2 + a3h3b3. Early results of the overflow rate that have been obtained by applying the law are close to 10 % of the flow measured in the physical test bench. On the actual site, the ultrasound sensors were assembled on a rail covering the entire weir in order to be able to change their position in future after models calibration.     

Parathion degradation and toxicity reduction in solar photocatalysis and photolysis.

The solar photocatalytic degradation of methyl parathion was investigated using a circulating TiO2/solar light reactor. Under solar photocatalysis condition, parathion was more effectively degraded than solar photolysis and TiO2-only conditions. With solar photocatalysis, 20 mg/L of parathion was completely degraded within 60 min with a TOC decrease of 63% after 150 min. The main ionic byproducts during photocatalysis recovered from parathion degradation were mainly as NO3-, NO2- and NH4+, 80% of the sulphur as SO4(2-), and 5% of phosphorus as PO4(3-). The organic intermediates 4-nitrophenol and methyl paraoxon were also identified, and these were further degraded in solar photocatalytic condition. Two different bioassays (Vibrio fischeri and Daphnia magna) were used to test the acute toxicity of solutions treated by solar photocatalysis and photolysis. The Microtox test using V. fischeri showed that the toxicity expressed as EC50 (%) value increased from 5.5% to >82% in solar photocatalysis, indicating that the treated solution is non-toxic, but only increased from 4.9 to 20.5% after 150 min in solar photolysis. The acute toxicity test using D. magna showed that EC50 (%) increased from 0.05 to 1.08% under solar photocatalysis, but only increased to 0.12% after 150 min with solar photolysis, indicating the solution is still toxic. The pattern of toxicity reduction parallels the decrease in TOC and the parathion concentrations.     

Extremum-seeking with variable gain control for intensifying biogas production in anaerobic fermentation.

A state-dependent variable-gain control system is implemented to follow the characteristics of a laboratory-scale up-flow anaerobic fixed-bed reactor dynamically. The transition from one state to another is determined on an hourly basis, depending on difference between the setpoint of the reactor pH and its true value. Considerable improvement of the process stability--reduction of oscillation in both the reactor pH and biogas production rate during high-rate operation, has been achieved, although the control structure is simple and intuitive.