Regional Frequency Distribution Type of Low Flow in North of Iran by L-moments

A regional low flow frequency analysis in the north of Iran using L-moments was carried out. Low flow events have been represented by the 7-day annual minimum series and the L-moments approach was used to assign these data into homogenous regions. According to the homogeneity measure and climatic properties, two subdivisions were found – one in the west of the study area having a homogenous assemblage of sites, and one in the east in which the sites were found to be heterogeneous. The regional low flow frequency distribution was derived for the western division using L-moments and goodness of fit tests were used to evaluate which of a number of possible distributions best represented this. The evaluation suggested that the Generalized Logistic distribution gives the best overall result. For heterogeneous subdivision, the performance of the 2-parameter distribution such as 2-parameter Log Normal, Normal and Gamma distributions gave the best result for the majority of sites. Regional and at-site frequency curves were also compared for the western division, which showed that the quantile estimates could be very different in the upper and lower tails of the distribution. The influence on flow regime and watershed properties on the type of the best fit distribution was investigated which showed that the 2 and 3 parameter distributions do not have a clear relationship with climatic and physiographic characteristics of the watersheds except the watershed area. This may result in simple scaling laws of low flows.     

Does access to tutorial solutions enhance student performance? Evidence from an accounting course

Deciding whether to release tutorial solutions to students is quite often a dilemma for instructors. This paper provides empirical evidence on the effect of releasing tutorial solutions in a management accounting course at a large Australian university. For this purpose, this paper develops a base model for predicting performance in the course and expands the model to incorporate a variable capturing the release of tutorial solutions. Consistent with previous research (e.g. Doran et al., 1991; Danko‐McGhee and Duke, 1992; Kavanagh and Rohde, 1996), in the base model, although performances in an introductory accounting course and the mid‐semester test were found to be good predictors of performance in the final examination, evidence on the role of gender and age was weak. In the expanded model, there was no evidence that releasing tutorial solutions improved performance in the final examination. The findings of this paper have policy implications for educators and administrators in education in deciding whether to release tutorial solutions to students.     

Social exclusion and labour market transitions: a multi-state multi-spell analysis using the BHPS

In this empirical paper, we assess how social exclusion arises in the context of labour market transition behaviour. We estimate a multi-state multi-spell competing risks model and identify five states: high skilled employment, intermediate skilled employment, low skilled employment, unemployment and out-of-the-labour market. Using data from the first seven waves of the British Household Panel Survey, we show that a substantial number of workers were trapped in a vicious circle of low-skilled employment, unemployment and inactivity in the 1990s. Workers who are part of the so-called flexible workforce are more likely to suffer social exclusion.     

Oil booms and inequality in Iran

We study the response of income inequality to positive per capita oil and gas revenue shocks in Iran. Using historical data from 1973 to 2016 and vector autoregression (VAR) as well as vector error correction (VECM) model‐based impulse‐response functions, we find a positive and statistically significant response of income inequality to oil booms. We also explore possible channels through which oil booms may increase inequality, including private sector credit growth, construction investment, international trade (imports) and real economic output. We find that following an oil boom, higher imports, private sector credit growth, and real economic output can explain the increased income gap to a certain degree in Iran's oil‐based economy. Our analysis can help policymakers evaluate and accommodate the possible positive or negative effects of inequality in Iran resulting from the 2016 lifting of the embargo against the country.     

Does terrorism reduce life satisfaction?

We study the effect of terrorism on life satisfaction for a sample of 81 countries over the 1994–2009 period. We find that terrorism is robustly associated with less life satisfaction. This effect, however, translates into only modest social costs.     

Impact of Flood Spreading on Infiltration Rate and Soil Properties in an Arid Environment

Flood spreading (FS) is one of the suitable methods for flood management and water harvesting that increases the groundwater recharge, makes soil more fertile and increases nutrients in soil. It is also a method for reusing sediment, which is usually wasted. The purpose of this paper is to investigate the impact of flood spreading on physical and chemical soil properties (soil texture, infiltration rate, pH, EC, Na, P, K, Ca, Mg, Cl, HCO₃, and SO₄). It is examined that the soil properties change in the flood spreading projection area (FSP). The physico-chemical properties of soil and infiltration rate were measured in different soil depths at both flood spreading and control area. For the 20 cm of top soil, the amount of clay increased after the flood spreading implementation especially in the first and second dikes. Increasing clay was accompanied by decreasing soil infiltration and sand percentage. The mean differences of the clay, sand and infiltration rate between FSP and the control area were statistically significant (P < 0.01). A significant difference was not observed in 20–30 cm of the depth. Soil pH, Mg, HCO₃, Cl and SO₄ in different soil layers did not show any significant difference between the control and FSP. Soil EC in 0–20 cm depth of FSP and control area was showed a significant difference (P < 0.05) but no significant differences were found in deeper layers (P < 0.05). K, Na and Ca were remarkably different between 0 and 10 cm depths (P < 0.05) whereas no significant differences were found in deeper layers (P < 0.05). Comparison of the physico-chemical properties and infiltration rates between the dikes in the FSP shows that there are the significant differences between the medians of dike 1 with dikes 2, 3, 4 and 5, but the differences were not observed between dikes 3, 4 and 5. Our results show that the flood spreading operation can be influenced by the area that is under this operation. This study allowed us to investigate the mechanisms that regulate the infiltration rate and chemical soil properties throughout a seasonally flooded area.     

Episodic nearshore-offshore exchanges of hypoxic waters along the north shore of Lake Erie

We investigate the nearshore-offshore exchange of hypoxic waters during episodic coastal upwelling events in the nearshore waters of northern Lake Erie using intensive field observations and a validated hydrodynamic and water quality model. We observe wind-induced coastal upwelling events to be the dominant nearshore physical process in the lake which are energized every 5–10 days. When the winds were predominantly blowing from the west or south-west, epilimnetic waters were transported to the offshore bringing in hypolimnetic waters with low temperature (8–10 °C), dissolved oxygen (DO: 0–6 mg L^?1) and pH (6–7) to the nearshore zones. During these events, vertical diffusivity coefficients decreased from 10^?2 m² s^?1 to values as low as ~ 10^?7 m² s^?1. In late summer, the coastal upwelling events in the nearshore waters lower the near bottom DO to hypoxic levels (DO < 2 mg L^?1). Lake-wide observations of DO and pH show that they are positively and linearly correlated while in the nearshore DO and pH experience spatial and temporal variability where upwelling events were developed, which were further assessed using a three-dimensional model. The model accuracy to reproduce offshore hypoxia was first assessed on a lake-wide basis using a coarse resolution model for a five-year period (2008–2012) and in nearshore waters using a higher resolution model for 2013. We use the model results to delineate the near bottom areas experiencing hypoxia at time scales longer than 48 h.     

Using the Fuzzy Clustering and Principle Component Analysis for Assessing the Impact of Potential Evapotranspiration Calculation Method On the Modified RDI Index

The modified reconnaissance drought index (RDIe) which is a modified version of RDI is presented for assessing drought conditions with an emphasis on agricultural drought. The potential evapotranspiration (PET) and effective rainfall are required climatic variables to calculate RDIe. Although the FAO Penman–Monteith (FPM) equation is the reference method for determining the PET, due to the need for data of a large number of climatic variables it is difficult to use in areas with shortage climatic data. Therefore, in this research, using the fuzzy clustering (FC) and principle component analysis (PCA) methods, the influence of PET calculation methods including FPM (used as reference method), FAO Penman (FP), Hargreaves-Samani (HS), Blaney-Criddle (BC), Turc (Tu), Jensen-Haise (JH), Priestley–Taylor (PT) and FAO24 Radiation (Ra) methods on the RDIe (in 1, 3 and 12-month time scales) was assessed. In this study the climatic data series of 5 stations in Fars province, Iran from 1989 to 2018 was used. Based on the results of PCA model, in short-term time scales (1 and 3-month), the calculated RDIe values based on the HS method (at 100% of stations) and in long-term time scale (annual) based on the FP method (at 60% of stations) had the highest correlation with RDIe based on the FPM method. According to the results of FC method, in 1-month time scale, the values of RDIe using PT and HS methods (at 100% and 80% of selected stations, respectively), in 3-month time scale, the values of RDIe using PT, HS and Ra methods (at 100% of stations) and in annual time scale, the values of RDIe using FP method (at 60% of stations) had the highest similarities with the values of RDIe using FPM. Therefore, it is recommended to replace the FPM method with HS (in 1 and 3-month time scales) and FP (in 12-month time scales) methods in areas with minimum available meteorological data.

     

Spatiotemporal Modelling of Water Balance Components in Response to Climate and Landuse Changes in a Heterogeneous Mountainous Catchment

Landuse change and climate change are the main drivers of hydrological processes. The purpose of this study was to analyse the separate and combined future effects of climate and landuse changes on water balance components on different spatial and temporal scales using the integrated hydrological Soil and Water Assessment Tool model. The study focused on the changes and relationship between water yield (WYLD) and sediment yield (SYLD) in the heterogeneous Taleghan Catchment in Iran. For future climate scenarios, RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 of GFDL-ESM2M GCM were used for 2020–2040. A Markov chain model was used to predict landuse change in the catchment. The results indicated an increase in precipitation and evapotranspiration. The findings also showed that the relationship between WYLD and SYLD is direct and synergic. Climate change has a stronger effect on WYLD than landuse change, whereas landuse change has a stronger effect on SYLD. The conversion of rangelands to barren land is the most critical landuse change that could increase SYLD. The highest increase in WYLD and SYLD in scenario RCP4.5 resulted from the combined effects of climate and landuse change. We estimated WYLD of about 295 mm and SYLD of around 17 t/ha. The proposed methodology is universal and can be applied to similar settings to identify the most vulnerable regions. This can help prioritize management strategies to improve water and soil management in watersheds.

     

Environmental vulnerability assessment of Choghakhor International Wetland during 1985 to 2018

As of natural constraints, and the specific climate of Iran, as well as the increasing importance of international water resources in the socio‐economic development of societies, studies on surface water resources, especially wetlands, merit special attention. Accordingly, the TM, ETM+ and OLI satellite images of 1985, 2000 and 2018 were used in the present study to detect changes in the Choghakhor international wetland. Classifying the images with a supervised method, and using maximum likelihood algorithms, the distinct land use/land cover classes of waterbody, aquatic plants, pasture and forest, agricultural lands, bare land and human built lands were ranked. Selected landscape metrics information on the spatial pattern of the Choghakhor wetland was quantitatively determined, using Fragstats software, and the spatial composition and vulnerability of the wetland were evaluated. The vulnerability assessment of wetland contamination was investigated using the WRASTIC index based on the catchment area scale. Time processing of the data obtained from the maps indicated a 26.63% decrease in the pasture and forest area, and a 12.1% increase in the area of human built lands and agriculture lands during the period from 1985 to 2018. Further, in spite of the waterbody area expanding during 1985 to 2000, it subsequently shrunk in size from 2000 to 2018, with the area of aquatic plants lands increasing during the same period. Analysis of landscape metrics generally indicated the natural wetland cover has been changing during this period along with increasing anthropogenic impacts. Degradation, rotation and replacement of natural land cover such as pastures and forests with human built areas can be considered undesirable development effects on the Choghakhor wetland. The results of the WRASTIC index calculation indicated a major impact of Choghakhor wetland components from water pollution. The results of the present study place an emphasis on more sustainable land use and prevention of land destruction in the Choghakhor wetland basin.