Trends, lead times and forecasting

The innovations representation for a local linear trend can adapt to long run secular and short term transitory effects in the data. This is illustrated by the theoretical power spectrum for the model which may possess considerable power at frequencies that might be associated with cycles of several years' duration. Whilst advantageous for short term forecasting, the model may be of less use when interest is in the underlying long run trend in the data. In this paper we propose a generalisation of the innovations representation for a local linear trend that is appropriate for representing short, medium and long run trends in the data.     

Mutual fund trades and the value of contradictory private information

We investigate the performance of mutual funds that trade using private information. These funds are uniquely identified from a set of 2730 funds with 44,315 fund-periods between 1994 and 2005. We compare the alignment of fund trades with brokers’ recommendations, which we regard as “public information” in the universe of informed and uninformed mutual funds. Funds that systematically trade counter to the public information form a homogenous subset of the privately informed funds. By using private information that contradicts the public information, these funds exhibit a superior average performance. After we control for serial correlation in fund returns, we assess this advantage as being an economically significant 1.7% per annum. We also show empirically that smaller funds are better able to capture the benefit of private information.     

Competruism

Competruism is an emerging ideology which has been produced by the synthesis of capitalistic and socialistic tenets in the American economy. The hybrid nature of this ideology can best be described through Hegel's dialectic: One fact (thesis) works against another fact (antithesis) to produce a wholly new fact (synthesis). That is, democratic capitalism (thesis) arose and was confronted by another powerful force, democratic socialism (antithesis). The result of this encounter is an entirely new ideology, competruism (synthesis). The underlying premise for this ideology states that: “Competruism will provide for a zenith in productivity by offering each entity of society (individual, organization) an equal opportunity to compete for the socio-economic rewards of the macro marketing system.” This doctrine provides mankind with a philosopher's stone to amalgamate capitalistic, democratic, socialistic and moral ideals into a common framework which can be used to optimize the survival chances of society in a peaceful environment. There are indications that a new ideology is emerging in America which is capable of guiding society, through public policy, to a zenith in productivity.     

Integrating a random utility model for non-timber forest users into a strategic forest planning model

In this paper, we developed a mixed-integer non-linear programming model that integrates access road development and a utility theoretic spatial choice model of hunters into a strategic forest harvest-scheduling model. The model was applied to an operationally sized Forest Management Agreement (FMA) area in central Alberta, Canada. The resulting behavioral model had approximately 2.6 million decision variables and about 96,000 constraints, and was used to examine the impacts of timber harvesting on hunters’ preference for hunting sites. We also evaluated the impacts of various levels of hunter welfare on: (i) the degree of tradeoff between timber and hunting benefits, (ii) timber harvest schedules, and (iii) the marginal costs of producing timber products. The results showed significant tradeoffs between timber and hunting benefits and a clear link between landscape characteristics and changes and behavioral responses by hunters.     

The role of satisfaction with territory design on the motivation, attitudes, and work outcomes of salespeople

The primary emphasis of previous research concerning salespeople has been focused on their attitudes and behavior. The relationship between organizational variables and salesperson attitudes and behavior has received very limited attention. Sales territory design is largely uncontrollable by the salesperson, yet is acknowledged by managers and researchers as an important factor enabling salespeople to perform well. The objective is to examine satisfaction with territory design from the perspective of the salesperson. A conceptual model and hypotheses are developed linking the satisfaction with territory design with role ambiguity, intrinsic motivation, job satisfaction, and performance. Role conflict, met expectations, organizational commitment, and intention to leave are also included in the model. Survey results provide strong support for 19 of the 21 hypotheses examined. The findings offer significant insights concerning the role of territory design satisfaction in face-to-face selling and its consequences. Several managerial implications and avenues for future research are discussed. Ken Grant is the deputy head in the Department of Marketing, Monash University, Melbourne, Australia. He is a member of the editorial boards of theEuropean Journal of Marketing and theJournal of Marketing Practice: Applied Marketing Science. He has published in theInternational Journal of Research in Marketing, European Journal of Marketing, Industrial Marketing Management, and several other journals. He advises companies on marketing planning, new products, and sales management and conducts research and publishes in these areas. David W. Cravens holds the Eunice and James L. West Chair of American Enterprise Studies at Texas Christian University. His research on sales management and marketing strategy has been published in theJournal of Marketing, Journal of Marketing Research, Journal of the Academy of Marketing Science, and other leading journals in marketing and management. Before becoming an educator, he held various industry and government executive positions. He is internationally recognized for his research on marketing strategy and sales management. He has been a visiting scholar at universities in Austria, Australia, Chile, Czech Republic, England, Ireland, Germany, Mexico, the Netherlands, New Zealand, Singapore, and Wales. His textbook,Strategic Marketing (Irwin/McGraw-Hill 2000), is widely used in strategy and management courses. George S. Low is an associate professor of marketing in the M. J. Neeley School of Business, Texas Christian University. He received a B.A. in advertising from Brigham Young University, an M.B.A. from the Richard Ivey School of Business at the University of Western Ontario, and a Ph.D. in marketing from the University of Colorado-Boulder. His research on the management of integrated marketing communications and brands has been published in theJournal of Marketing Research, Journal of Retailing, Journal of Advertising Research, Marketing Management, Marketing Science Institute’s Working Paper Series, and other journals. William C. Moncrief is a senior associate dean and professor of marketing at Texas Christian University in Fort Worth, Texas. He received his B.Sc. in political science and his M.B.A. from the University of Mississippi. He completed his Ph.D. at Louisiana State University in 1983. His work has been published in leading marketing and sales journals, including theJournal of Marketing Research, Journal of the Academy of Marketing Science, European Journal of Marketing, Journal of Business Research, Industrial Marketing Management, andJournal of Personal Selling and Sales Management, among others. His research interests are in the field of sales management and include topics such as sales deployment, sales contests, international sales, telemarketing, turnover, laptop computers, sales job activities, and quality control. He has taught in Germany, conducted research in Europe, and has most recently consulted in Mexico.     

Incorporating fairness in generalized games of matching pennies

We examine individual behavior in generalized games of matching pennies. We have three main findings. First, individuals cooperate in these games; that is, they systematically select strategies that lead both players to obtain higher expected payoffs than in a Nash equilibrium. Second, existing models that assume altruistic preferences do not explain the cooperative behavior in these games. Third, among the main models in the extant literature, the only one that predicts the observed behavior is the quantal response equilibrium.     

Tax smoothing and tariff behavior in the United States

This paper develops and tests a public finance theory of tariff behavior. Tariffs are viewed as being part of the optimum revenue raising tax package so that tariff revenue is closely tied to government spending. A key implication of the theory is that tariff rate movements should be consistent with tax-smoothing behavior. The test focuses on the United States during the years 1869–1916. The results of the test support the theory.     

Lodging as a migrant economic strategy in urban Zimbabwe

The 1990s were a decade of rapid urbanisation and growth of squatter settlements in African cities. Given the severe shortage of affordable housing options, a large proportion of urban dwellers choose lodging as the only economically viable, legal shelter option. Lodging is thus an essential element of the economic survival strategy of the urban poor. Based on a longitudinal study of lodgers in a medium-sized Zimbabwean city during the mid-1990s, this article explores the economic characteristics and strategies of lodging households during a time of rapid urban growth and worsening economic conditions. The article outlines the way these changes affect lodging household composition, shelter features, economic coping mechanisms and overall vulnerability. It concludes with a brief examination of the present urban situation in Zimbabwe.