Costs and potential funding of expanded public pension coverage in Asia

Public pension burdens in most emerging Asian economies are still relatively small. However, there are a number of reasons to believe that they will increase markedly in the coming years. First, many Asian economies will face rapidly ageing populations, which will raise pension and other old‐age‐related spending dramatically. Second, as economies develop, political pressures to expand the coverage of public pensions and raise pension benefits will likely increase. The first objective of this paper is to identify the potential fiscal burden of public pensions in 23 emerging Asian economies, based on econometric models and forecasts of GDP and demographic trends. Using two different methodologies yields estimated increases in the average share of public pension expenditures in GDP of 1.0 percentage point and 3.6 percentage points by 2030 compared with current levels. We believe the latter estimate is more realistic. The second objective is to recommend policies to provide adequate funding for public pension needs, including enhancing the efficiency of social insurance programs, improving the balance of revenues and expenditures, implementing more explicit fiscal rules and frameworks, and establishing stronger fiscal surveillance at the national and regional levels.     

Demonstration of a tool for automatic learning and re-use of knowledge in the activated sludge process.

Wastewater treatment plant operators encounter complex operational problems related to the activated sludge process and usually respond to these by applying their own intuition and by taking advantage of what they have learnt from past experiences of similar problems. However, previous process experiences are not easy to integrate in numerical control, and new tools must be developed to enable re-use of plant operating experience. The aim of this paper is to investigate the usefulness of a case-based reasoning (CBR) approach to apply learning and re-use of knowledge gained during past incidents to confront actual complex problems through the IWA/COST Benchmark protocol. A case study shows that the proposed CBR system achieves a significant improvement of the benchmark plant performance when facing a high-flow event disturbance.     

Analysis of enterococci using portable testing equipment for developing countries--variance of Azide NutriDisk medium under variable time and temperature.

This report compares the enterococci count on samples obtained with Azide NutriDisk (AND) (sterile, dehydrated culture medium) and Slanetz and Bartley (SB) medium when exposed to a variable in incubation time and temperature. Three experiments were performed to examine the recovery of enterococci on AND and SB media using membrane filtration with respect to: (a) incubation time; (b) incubation temperature; and (c) a combination of the two. Presumptive counts were observed at 37, 41, 46 and 47 degrees C and at 20, 24, 28 and 48 h. These were compared to AWWA standard method 9230 C (44 degrees C, 44 h). Samples were confirmed using Kanamycin Aesculin Azide (KAA) agar. Friedman's ANOVA and Students t-test analysis indicated higher enumeration of enterococci when grown on AND (p = 0.45) than SB (p = < 0.001) at all temperatures with a survival threshold at 47 degrees C. Significant results for AND medium were noted at 20 h (p = 0.021), 24 h (p = 0.278) and 28 h (p = 0.543). The study concluded that the accuracy of the AND medium at a greater time and temperature range provided flexibility in incubator technology making it an appropriate alternative to SB medium for monitoring drinking water using field testing kits in developing countries.     

Enhancing urban infrastructure investment planning practices for a changing climate.

Climate change raises many concerns for urban water management because of the effects on all aspects of the hydrological cycle. Urban water infrastructure has traditionally been designed using historical observations and assuming stationary climatic conditions. The capability of this infrastructure, whether for storm-water drainage, or water supply, may be over- or under-designed for future climatic conditions. In particular, changes in the frequency and intensity of extreme rainfall events will have the most acute effect on storm-water drainage systems. Therefore, it is necessary to take future climatic conditions into consideration in engineering designs in order to enhance water infrastructure investment planning practices in a long time horizon. This paper provides the initial results of a study that is examining ways to enhance urban infrastructure investment planning practices against changes in hydrologic regimes for a changing climate. Design storms and intensity-duration-frequency curves that are used in the engineering design of storm-water drainage systems are developed under future climatic conditions by empirically adjusting the general circulation model output, and using the Gumbel distribution and the Chicago method. Simulations are then performed on an existing storm-water drainage system from NE Calgary to investigate the resiliency of the system under climate change.     

Ecophysiology and niche differentiation of Nitrospira-like bacteria, the key nitrite oxidizers in wastewater treatment plants.

Nitrite-oxidizing bacteria of the genus Nitrospira are key nitrifiers in wastewater treatment plants. Pure cultures of these organisms are unavailable, but cultivation-independent molecular methods make it possible to detect Nitrospira-like bacteria in environmental samples and to investigate their ecophysiology. Comprehensive screening of natural and engineered habitats and of public databases for 16S rRNA sequences of Nitrospira-like bacteria revealed a surprisingly high biodiversity in the genus Nitrospira, which comprises at least four phylogenetic sublineages. All Nitrospira-like bacteria detected in wastewater treatment plants belonged to the sublineages I and II. Subsequently, the population dynamics of different Nitrospira-like bacteria were monitored, by quantitative fluorescence in situ hybridization with rRNA-targeted probes, confocal laser scanning microscopy and digital image analysis, during incubation of nitrifying activated sludge in media containing different nitrite concentrations. These experiments showed that Nitrospira-like bacteria, which were affiliated with the phylogenetic sublineages I or II of the genus Nitrospira, responded differently to nitrite concentration shifts. Previously unknown properties of Nitrospira-like bacteria were discovered in the course of an environmental genomics project. Implications of the obtained results for fundamental understanding of the microbial ecology of nitrite oxidizers as well as for future improvement of nutrient removal in wastewater treatment plants are discussed.     

Using decision analysis to determine optimal experimental design for monitoring sewer exfiltration with tracers.

The tracer methods developed to assess exfiltration from sewers in the European project APUSS (assessment of the performance of sewer systems) have a high degree of freedom with regard to the choice of tracer and the dosing strategy. These can lead to very different degrees of uncertainty in the measured exfiltration ratio. In this study, we demonstrate how to select an optimal experimental design using decision analysis, which accounts for this uncertainty and its associated costs. Although the results are site-specific, we can conclude generally that, when NaCl is used as the tracer, the accuracy of the exfiltration estimate is most sensitive to the amount of tracer used and the starting time of the experiment.     

One-dimensional GIS-based model compared with a two-dimensional model in urban floods simulation.

A GIS-based one-dimensional flood simulation model is presented and applied to the centre of the city of N?mes (Gard, France), for mapping flow depths or velocities in the streets network. The geometry of the one-dimensional elements is derived from the Digital Elevation Model (DEM). The flow is routed from one element to the next using the kinematic wave approximation. At the crossroads, the flows in the downstream branches are computed using a conceptual scheme. This scheme was previously designed to fit Y-shaped pipes junctions, and has been modified here to fit X-shaped crossroads. The results were compared with the results of a two-dimensional hydrodynamic model based on the full shallow water equations. The comparison shows that good agreements can be found in the steepest streets of the study zone, but differences may be important in the other streets. Some reasons that can explain the differences between the two models are given and some research possibilities are proposed.     

Identification of the adverse effect of nitrate on the phosphate release rate and improvement of EBPR process models.

The adverse effect of nitrate on the phosphate release rate in the anaerobic phase was observed and was hardly explainable with conventional EBPR process models. Four possible mechanisms were proposed including substrate competition, reduced fermentation, parallel reaction and sequential reaction. Batch experiments were designed and conducted to identify the dominant mechanism. Results showed that the sequential reaction was the only possible mechanism where only denitrification occurred if any nitrate existed in the anaerobic phase. Then the phosphate release following after the nitrate was completely removed. Nitrate inhibition effect was added into the PHA storage rate to incorporate the sequential reaction in the conventional ASM3 plus EAWAG bio-P module (ASM3 + P). Nitrate inhibition coefficient, K(I,NO,PAO) was found to be as low as 0.05 mg/L. This correlated well with experimental observation where no also meant that the anaerobic compartment of a continuous flow reactor could be seriously affected by the residual nitrate contained in the sludge recycle flow. This phenomenon caused overestimation of the phosphate uptake rate and consequently underestimation of PO4(3-) -P concentration. This problem was resolved by incorporation of a nitrate inhibition term in the ASM3 + P for more accurate simulation of the EBPR process.     

Design of a retention tank: comparison of stormwater quality models with various levels of complexity.

Stormwater quality simulation models are useful tools for the design and management of sewer systems. Modelling results are highly sensitive to experimental data used for calibration. This sensitivity is examined for three modelling approaches of various complexities (site mean concentration approach, event mean concentration approach and build-up, washoff and transport modelling approach) applied to a typical case study (design of a dry detention tank), accounting for the variability of calibration data and their effect on simulation results. Calibrated models with different calibration data sets were used to simulate 3 years of rainfall with different retention tank specific volumes. Annual pollutant load interception efficiencies were determined. Simulations results revealed (i) that there is no advantage in using the EMC model compared to the SMC model and (ii) that the BWT model resulted in higher design ratios than those given by the SMC/hydraulic approach. For both EMC and BWT models, using an increasing number n of events for calibration leads to narrower confidence intervals for the design ratios. It is crucial for design ratios to account for successive storm events in chronological order and to account for the maximum allowable flow to be transferred to the downstream WWTP.     

An inventory analysis of rural pollution loads in China.

Rural pollution has attracted increasing attention over the past decade for its important consequences on surface and groundwater quality. This is particularly so in China due to the wide and effective control of industrial and municipal wastewater discharges over the past decade. Based on the discussion of rural activities in China, this paper develops a new method of inventory analysis through the definition of elementary unit (EU). This inventory analysis approach is then applied to estimate the total rural pollution loads of COD, TN and TP, as well as their spatial distributions in China. Further analysis is also conducted to investigate the correlations between rural pollution loads and agricultural production outputs, as well as population. It is found that China's agriculture is developing largely at the cost of environment quality, and a high population, as well as the increasing demand for agricultural products, is one of the dominant driving forces. The constructed EKC, which describes the relationship between rural pollution loads and agricultural income, also reveals that current agricultural development in China is mostly far from de-locked from the environmental problem.