Snapshot samples

We consider a coverage model where an initial event that occurs at some point in time triggers an activity of random duration that leads to some subsequent event. A snapshot sample is constructed at a fixed point in chronological time either by sampling only subjects where the initial event has occurred but the subsequent event has yet to occur (active subjects), or by sampling only subjects where both the initial and subsequent events have occurred (inactive subjects). The biases inherent in snapshot sampling can be neatly characterized by the properties of two random variables: the history (defined as the time the initial event occurs as measured into the past from the chronological point of sampling), and the active time (defined as the length of time between the initial and subsequent events). Though snapshot samples are biased, recognizing the biases enables correct inferences to be drawn from snapshot-sampled data. Considering only the case where and are independent random variables, this paper presents the probability models associated with snapshot sampling, demonstrates the problems that can occur, offers procedures for overcoming these problems, and applies the methods to interesting data sets.     

From edgeworth to fisher to vickrey: A comment on Michael J. Boskin's Vickrey lecture

Irving Fisher has been overlooked as an influence on William Vickrey's work on taxation and as a link between Edgeworth and Vickrey. Vickrey was Fisher's last and greatest student.     

A MULTINOMIAL APPROXIMATION FOR AMERICAN OPTION PRICES IN LÉVY PROCESS MODELS

This paper gives a tree-based method for pricing American options in models where the stock price follows a general exponential Lévy process. A multinomial model for approximating the stock price process, which can be viewed as generalizing the binomial model of Cox, Ross, and Rubinstein (1979) for geometric Brownian motion, is developed. Under mild conditions, it is proved that the stock price process and the prices of American-type options on the stock, calculated from the multinomial model, converge to the corresponding prices under the continuous time Lévy process model. Explicit illustrations are given for the variance gamma model and the normal inverse Gaussian process when the option is an American put, but the procedure is applicable to a much wider class of derivatives including some path-dependent options. Our approach overcomes some practical difficulties that have previously been encountered when the Lévy process has infinite activity.     

Analysis of Beef Producers' Risk Management Perceptions and Desire for Further Risk Management Education

Beef cattle producers were surveyed in Texas and Nebraska to investigate perceptions of sources of risk, the effectiveness of risk management strategies, and interest in further risk management education, particularly production risk, using probit analysis. Important decision variables identified are age, prior use of risk management tools, previous attendances of risk management education, and risk aversion. Severe drought and cattle price variability are identified as primary risk factors with potential to affect farm income. Extremely cold weather and disease are of less importance. Understocking pasture and storing hay are perceived most effective as risk management options.     

Evaluating the stabilisation degree of digested sewage sludge: investigations at four municipal wastewater treatment plants.

Further reduction of volatile suspended solids (VSS) during a post-stabilisation step was applied to evaluate the stabilisation degree of digested sewage sludge. For this purpose digested sludge was collected at four municipal wastewater treatment plants (WWTPs) and further stabilised in lab-scale chemostat reactors either under anaerobic or aerobic conditions. Experimental results showed that even in adequately digested sludge a consistent amount of VSS was degraded during aerobic post-stabilisation. It seems that aerobic conditions play a significant role during degradation of residual VSS. Additionally, specific VSS production (gVSS/peCOD110.d) as well as specific oxygen uptake rate were shown to be suitable parameters to assess the degree of sludge stabilisation at WWTPs. Fourier transform infrared spectroscopy was used to reveal changes in the sludge composition. Spectra of treated and untreated sludge samples indicated that the major component of residual VSS in stabilised sludge for instance consisted of biomass, while cellulose was absent.     

Characteristics of estrogen decomposition by ozonation.

Since the natural estrogens 17 beta-estradiol (E2) and estron (E1), and the synthetic estrogen 17 alpha-ethynyl estradiol (EE2) have strong endocrine disrupting effects and the tendency to persist in effluent from wastewater treatment plants, effective measures are needed to remove them from wastewater. In this research, to gain an understanding of the characteristics of estrogen decomposition by ozonation, experiments were conducted using effluent from an actual wastewater treatment plant. In this experiment, estrogen was added to effluent at a concentration of 200 ng/l and 20 ng/l before the ozonation experiments. The results showed 90% or more of estrogen concentration and estrogenic activity of E2, El and EE2 to be removed at an ozone dose of 1 mg/l. At an ozone dose of 3 mg/l, the estrogen concentration and estrogenic activity of E2, El and EE2 in the treated water fell below the detection limit. The removal rate was not influenced by the kind of estrogen. No generation of byproducts with estrogenic activity was observed. The authors conclude that estrogen in secondary treated wastewater can be almost entirely removed at the practical ozone dose rate applied for the purpose of disinfection, which is up to about 5 mg/l.     

应变仪测量大坝混凝土自由变形

采用应变仪测量混凝土大坝变形是最常用的一种测量方法。可以将仪器设置在承受全部荷载和作用的混凝土块体中，也可将其置于自由体中，即可测量出混凝土所固有的热湿变形和结构变形。     

Estimating the effectiveness of extension information systems using farm trials and subjective probabilities

A method of combining survey data and Dairy Herd Improvement Association (DHIA) records to achieve low cost farm trials is presented. Farm trials and surveys of current practices and production responses are useful to identify yield gaps between expectations predicted from experimental findings and actual field results. Different management schemes can be ranked using subjective probabilities and stochastic dominance to enhance successful implementation of research findings and to increase the feedback between researchers, extension workers, and producers. A survey of current masitis control practices and expected milk yield response is the example. Combining survey results with DHIA records allowed estimating the relationship between somatic cell counts (SCC) and milk yield. Eliciting beliefs about the relationship between SCC and milk yield showed that producers agreed with predictions from the statistical model. Subjective probabilities about SCC and mastitis control practices showed that our sample of experts and producers consistently ranked the different practices but extension agents had no consensus about the the most or least effective ones.