Intraday Volatility in Interest‐Rate and Foreign‐Exchange Markets: ARCH,Announcement, and Seasonality Effects

We explore the determinants of intraday volatility in interest‐rate and foreign‐exchange markets, focusing on the importance and interaction of three types of information in predicting intraday volatility: (a) knowledge of recent past volatilities (i.e., ARCH or Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity effects); (b) prior knowledge of when major scheduled macroeconomic announcements, such as the employment report or Producer Price Index, will be released; and (c) knowledge of seasonality patterns. We find that all three information sets have significant incremental predictive power, but macroeconomic announcements are the most important determinants of periods of very high intraday volatility (particularly in the interest‐rate markets). We show that because the three information sets are not independent, it is necessary to simultaneously consider all three to accurately measure intraday volatility patterns. For instance, we find that most of the previously documented time‐of‐day and day‐of‐the‐week volatility patterns in these markets are due to the tendency for macroeconomic announcements to occur on particular days and at particular times. Indeed, the familiar U‐shape completely disappears in the foreign‐exchange market. We also find that estimates of ARCH effects are considerably altered when we account for announcement effects and return periodicity; specifically, estimates of volatility persistence are sharply reduced. Separately, our results show that high volatility persists longer after shocks due to unscheduled announcements than after equivalent shocks due to scheduled announcements, indicating that market participants digest information much more quickly if they are prepared to receive it. However, contrary to results from equity markets, we find no evidence of a meaningful difference in volatility persistence after positive or negative price shocks. © 2001 John Wiley & Sons, Inc. Jrl Fut Mark 21: 517–552, 2001     

Daily outfit satisfaction: the effects of self and others' evaluation on satisfaction with what I wear today

This study investigated the satisfaction of the outfit which an individual chose to wear for the day by examining how self and others' evaluations influenced the outfit satisfaction and the intention to re‐wear. In addition, moderator variables (body satisfaction and body surveillance) that affected the effect of the evaluative factors upon satisfaction and behavioural intention were also examined. An online‐survey was conducted and the sample size used in the analysis was 349 in total. Using SPSS 18.0 and AMOS 18.0, structural equation modeling analysis and one‐way analysis of variance were implemented for hypothesis testing. The results showed that self‐evaluation as a perception of appropriateness of the outfit for that day and others' positive feedback increases outfit satisfaction. Appropriateness perception also had a significant impact on the intention to re‐wear. However, feedback from others on one's outfit did not have a significant direct effect on behavioural intention. Three‐way ANOVA was performed to verify the impact the feedback from others, body satisfaction, and body surveillance had on the respondent's intention to re‐wear, and a three‐way interaction effect was statistically significant. While individuals with high body satisfaction were likely to be confident about their appearance overall, the feedback from others did not impact their satisfaction. Individuals with low body satisfaction were influenced by others' feedback on their outfit. Individuals with high levels of body surveillance who sensitively monitored others' feedback especially displayed decreased intention to re‐wear when feedback from others on their outfit was negative. This research contributed to the deeper understanding of consumer's clothing behaviour at the post‐purchase stage. Enhanced understanding of lasting satisfaction and benefits pursued throughout the time while using the product would be essential in developing consumer‐centric marketing strategies.     

植被群落之间水流紊动强度垂向分布规律探讨

以生态特征参数不同的植被群落为研究对象,在室内水槽中种植灌木、芦苇和灌木-草本植被混合群落,利用多普勒流速仪沿程测量各测点瞬时流速,基于河流动力学和紊流力学理论,将水流紊动强度表达为植被直径、水流绕流阻力因数、植被直径梯度和水流绕流阻力因数梯度的函数,比较不同类型植被群落之间水流紊动强度垂向分布规律的差异。结果表明,灌木完全淹没时,紊动强度在垂向上最大值位于灌木冠层顶端区域,极小值位于茎杆向冠层过渡区域。植被群落水流紊动强度垂向分布曲线上存在三个拐点,即茎杆向冠层过渡处、植被偏转点和植被冠层顶端。     

具有智能交互的网络教学系统

由于在网络教学中,缺乏传统教学的灵活性,因此在网络教学中引入agent,设计基于浏览器/Agent/服务器的网络教学系统,并提出了各个模块的主要功能,使得网络教学更加智能化和个性化。     

泛北部湾区域贸易自由化问题研究

本文首先对贸易自由化问题进行了界定，然后就泛北部湾地区开展贸易自由化的各项因素进行了论述。一方面，笔者列举了一系列利于在该区域实现贸易自由化的潜在性因素；另一方面，笔者也注意到区域内各国基础设施条件和经济基础差异较大，贸易商品的层次不同、贸易间的关联度差以及各国在涉及国家经济安全，产业体系建立等贸易自由化政策方面所表现的不同倾向又为泛北部湾区域贸易自由化进程增添了障碍。本文在深入分析这些因素的基础上，从产业层次角度提出实现区域内贸易自由化的进程模式和方法。     

Improvement of pre- and post-processing environments of the dynamic two-dimensional reservoir model CE-QUAL-W2 based on GIS.

An Environmental Information System (EIS) coupled with a Geographic Information System (GIS) and water quality models is developed to improve the pre- and post-data processing function of CE-QUAL-W2. Since the accuracy of the geometric data in terms of a diverse water body has a great effect on the water quality variables such as the velocity, kinetic reactions, the horizontal and vertical momentum, to prepare the bathymetry information has been considered a difficult issue for modellers who intend to use the model. For identifying Cross Section and Profile Information (CSPI), which precisely contains hydraulic features and geographical configuration of a waterway, the automated CSPI extraction program has been developed using Avenue Language of the PC Arc/view package. The program consists of three major steps: (1) getting the digital depth map of a waterway using GIS techniques; (2) creating a CSPI data set of segments in each branch using the program for CE-QUAL-W2 bathymetry input; (3) selecting the optimal set of bathymetry input by which the calculated water volume meets the observed volume of the water body. Through those approaches, it is clear that the model simulation results in terms of water quality as well as reservoir hydraulics rely upon the accuracy of bathymetry information.     

最高冰塞,冰坝水位计算与预报的动力—随机模型

应用动力模型可以计算出某一流量过程的最高冰塞、冰坝水位。然而在设计工作中希望知道在某一概率流量情况下的最高冰塞、冰坝水位。为此，本文建立了相应的动力－随机模型。据本文作者所知道的情况，该模型在文献中尚未见到过。本文用水动力学及随机函数的相关理论两种方法论证了动力－随机模型解的收敛性。在该模型中本文建议用数学期望作为边界断面的时均值，用均方差作为边界断面上的随机值。在最大流量概率密度服从对数正态分布     

What If Immigrants Had Not Migrated?

A bstract .   Despite strong theoretical arguments and models about international migration, very few empirical studies rigorously test these arguments and models. The purpose of the present study is to analyze determinants and consequences for international migration, focusing particularly on the returns to post-hoc international migration. The present study compares residential well-being of Korean international migrants in the United States with that of their hypothetical well-being if they had not migrated. Our suggested models of the selectivity corrected returns to various characteristics for immigrants and nonimmigrants enable us to estimate the "opportunity well-being" of individuals and households; that is, the well-being of immigrants-had-they-stayed and of nonimmigrants-if-they-had-immigrated. The data for our analyses are drawn from the 1990 Korea Census Data and the Public Use Microdata Samples (PUMS) of the 1990 U.S. Census. In either case of migrants-had-they-stayed or of nonimmigrants-had-they-migrated, international migration to the United States has a significant and positive effect on the probability of homeownership, especially for women. The results show that the predicted probability of homeownership attainment increases as a result of migration by 15 percent to 16 percent for women and by 8 percent for men. The study concludes that migrating to the United States offers better opportunities for homeownership than staying in Korea does, particularly for women.     

3种ELISA试剂盒对牛新孢子虫血清抗体比较检测

用瑞典Svanova公司、美国IDEXX公司和美国VMRD公司生产的3种检测新孢子虫血清抗体ELISA试剂盒对来自澳大利亚牛血清（41份）、新西兰牛血清（40份）、乌拉圭牛血清（30份）和中国新疆牛血清（46份）进行了同步检测和比较分析,并以其中2个试剂盒检测结果均为阳性或阴性的血清为真阳性或真阴性,对另1个试剂盒在诊断相对敏感性和相对特异性方面进行了比较评估。结果表明,3个试剂盒的诊断相对敏感性和诊断相对特异性分别为：85.7%和92.5%（Svanova）、95.8%和98%（IDEXX）、88.5%和98%（VMRD）。3个试剂盒都具有较好的重复性,检测低限相近。在对样品的检测中,IDEXX与VMRD两个试剂盒检测符合率较高,但对不同国家的样品检测符合率差别较大。