Welfare costs of monetary policy uncertainty in the economy with shifting trend inflation

We study welfare costs of the uncertainty about monetary policy in the economy featuring shifting trend inflation. We follow Ruge-Murcia (J Econ Dyn Control 36: 914–-938, 2012) to employ the SMM approach to fit the model to the US data (1979Q1-2015Q1). We find that the monetary policy uncertainty affects economic welfare through different dimensions. On the one hand, the policy uncertainty itself distorts the economic welfare negligibly, not only by increasing volatilities of consumption and leisure, but also by decreasing their average levels. A higher level of trend inflation then signifies these changes to produce greater welfare costs. Furthermore, the adverse impacts of policy uncertainty on the economy, documented by the impulse response functions of macroeconomic variables to policy uncertainty shock, become larger when central banks raise their inflation targets. On the other hand, the costs of exogenous variations in trend inflation are larger if there is policy uncertainty.     

保定市南市区“城中村”改造模式及其优化

目前,保定市南市区城中村改造的模式主要有村里自主开发和开发商主导开发两种模式,村民对各种模式的改造效果有不同的评价。南市区“城中村”改造中出现了农民的利益难以得到保护、改造后的新小区设施不完善、只重视硬环境忽视软环境等问题。南市区“城中村”改造的模式、原则等都需要进一步优化调整。     

Is Corporate Governance in China Related to Performance Persistence?

This paper examines the relationship between performance persistence and corporate governance (as proxied for by board characteristics and shareholder structure). We document systematic differences in performance persistence across listed companies in China during 2001–2011, and empirically demonstrate that firms with better corporate governance show higher performance persistence. The results are robust over both the short and long terms. We also find that performance persistence is an important factor in refinancing, and it can lower companies’ costs of borrowing. Overall, our findings offer important implications for business ethics, as we demonstrate how corporate governance can lower companies’ costs of debt.     

Black-White Disparities in Test Scores: Distributional Characteristics

This paper investigates the distributional characteristics of racial differences in mathematics achievement, with particular attention to the potential influence of unexplained, and possibly unwarranted, racial differentials in rates of school suspension. It is well known that black students consistently score lower than whites on achievement tests, on average, even after controlling for family and schooling factors. Using data from the National Longitudinal Survey of Youth 1997 cohort, we decompose the racial gap in mathematics test scores from the Peabody Individual Achievement Test-Revised (PIAT-R) into a component due to racial differences in underlying characteristics and another component that is unexplained by differences in measured characteristics. We account for the possible endogeneity of suspensions in our analysis and show that the portion of the racial gap that is unexplained differs between the top and the bottom of the test score distribution. Our results suggest that researchers should pay more attention to the problem of concentration of black students among those at the bottom of the distribution and their scarcity among those at the top of the test score distribution to better understand the factors that account for the observed disparities.     

Dynamic Properties of Income Support Receipt in Australia

Using administrative records on Australian income support (welfare) recipients over the period July 1995 to June 2002, we examine dynamic properties of income support receipt and the personal characteristics associated with alternative patterns of receipt. We draw on three concepts: churning–the process of ending a spell on income support and subsequently commencing a new spell; transferring–moving from one payment type to another within a spell on income support; and Total Time On payments (TTO)–the proportion of time on income support in a given period. We find that churning and transferring are significant features of income support receipt in Australia. For example, over half of recipients churn within five years of commencing an income support spell, and one‐fifth make a payment transfer within the same time frame. Examination of the characteristics associated with each of five distinct patterns of receipt reveals substantial differences in patterns by age, family composition, unemployment status, health status, and recent history of income support receipt.     

Shadow prices of environmental outputs and production efficiency of household-level paper recycling units in Vietnam

The production efficiency and shadow prices of three environmental outputs (BOD, COD, and SS) of 63 household-level paper-recycling units, from a recycling craft village in Vietnam, are assessed A two-stage procedure, linear programming and stochastic estimation, is used to estimate output distance function. Social capital as a production factor and environmental outputs are included in the output distance function. Results indicate that production efficiencies could potentially be improved by 28%. There is a substantial variation in the shadow prices of environmental outputs among the production units of different types of paper products. Furthermore, the average shadow prices of the three environmental outputs are all positive. This indicates a potential for improving environmental quality though introducing pollution-prevention methods to paper-recycling production processes in Vietnam (e.g., recirculation of wastewater), and suggests that it may be inappropriate to restrict the shadow prices of environmental outputs to be non-positive for the analysis of some production processes.     

The Effect of Financial Incentives on Labour Supply: Evidence for Lone Parents from Microsimulation and Quasi‐Experimental Evaluation*

The aim of this paper is to analyse the work incentive effects of a change in the Australian tax and transfer system on lone parents in July 2000. To evaluate the effect of the total change only, microsimulation can be used; but for a subgroup of lone parents, a few components of this policy change can be analysed through two alternative approaches — microsimulation and quasi‐experimental evaluation. Both approaches examine the effects on the probability of employment and on average working hours. The results from microsimulation show that the combined changes introduced in July 2000 — involving reduced withdrawl rates, changed family payments and lower income tax rates — have increased labour supply for lone parents to a moderate extent. The estimated effect on average working hours when using microsimulation is very close to the effect estimated in a quasi‐experimental approach using matching techniques to control for alternative influences.     

Conditional conservatism and labor investment efficiency

Prior literature documents that asymmetric timely recognition of losses versus gains (also known as conditional conservatism) can induce management to make more efficient investment decisions by mitigating information asymmetry between management and investors and providing early signals about the profitability of projects that are undertaken. In this paper, we investigate the impact of conservatism on an important investment decision that has been overlooked, namely, investment in labor. We find that conservatism is negatively associated with labor investment inefficiency; more specifically, conservatism reduces inefficient investment practices on the labor market, including over-hiring, under-firing, under-hiring, and over-firing. Our results hold after controlling for managerial ability, corporate governance, and other investments.     

Global or Domestic? Which Shocks Drive Inflation in European Small Open Economies?

We investigate which shocks drive inflation in small open economies. In the first step, we use the structural vector autoregressive (SVAR) approach to identify the global shocks. Second, we regress the disaggregated price indices for selected European economies on the global shocks controlling for the domestic variables. We find that the fluctuations of inflation in the analyzed countries are to large extent determined by the cyclical movements of the domestic output gap however the commodity shock also contributes strongly to inflation variability. The role of the non-commodity global supply shock is less prominent, however, interpreted to some extent as a globalization shock, for most of the analyzed period lowers the inflation. Nonetheless, in the aftermath of the global financial crisis, this shock reversed what may be interpreted as the weakening of the globalization process.