基于经验统计的弃渣场失稳致灾距预测模型研究

弃渣场失稳滑坡是一种严重的山地灾害,而对其致灾距离的预测对于灾害的防治具有重要意义。通过收集多组山地灾害数据,并经过处理后提出了滑坡碎屑流致灾距的经验预测模型,并基于此,进一步提出了弃渣场失稳滑坡致灾距的经验预测模型,模型考虑了弃渣体内部因素可能造成的影响,并通过数据拟合对模型的适用性进行了验证。其研究成果具有一定的推广价值。     

Effect of the Three Gorges Reservoir on vertical distribution of suspended sediment concentration and estimation accuracy of depth-average concentration in downstream reaches

The sediment regime in the middle Yangtze River has been significantly changed from quasi-equilibrium to nonequilibrium since the impoundment of the Three Georges Reservoir (TGR). To understand the effects of the TGR on vertical distribution of suspended sediment concentration (SSC) and estimation accuracy of mean concentration, vertical sediment concentration and flow velocity data at the Shashi and Jianli hydrological stations in the reach before and after the impoundment were collected. Comparisons and analysis of vertical profiles of SSC before and after the TGR impoundment show that after the impoundment of the TGR, due to the coarsening of sediment particle size, the reduction in sediment load, and the significant decrease in sediment saturation, the vertical distribution of SSC in the downstream reaches became more uneven under medium and low water flows, which was reflected in the vertical gradient and the fluctuation degree of SSC significantly increased. In addition, the depth-average sediment concentrations were calculated by the selected-point method and the mean values calculated by the “multi-point method” were regarded as the “true mean” to evaluate the accuracy of the mean value calculated by the “few-point method.” It was found that the relative errors for the selected-point method were mainly positive before impoundment but mainly negative after impoundment. Additionally, the correction factors of one-point, two-point, and three-point methods and the position of the near-bed substituted point for the five-point method were given to reduce the error when the point measurements were used to calculate the depth-average sediment concentration in the downstream reaches.     

A Hybrid Model Based on Variational Mode Decomposition and Gradient Boosting Regression Tree for Monthly Runoff Forecasting

Water Resources Management - Accurate and reliable monthly runoff forecasting is of great significance for water resource optimization and management. A neoteric hybrid model based on variational...     

岷江上游生态重建的模式

本文在分析岷江上游干旱河谷区生态环境问题的基础上，阐述了该区生态退化是脆弱的自然生态环境和人类的不合理经济营活动综合作用的结果，指出生态恢复与重建必须与经济建设紧密结合，走生态经济发展之路，将岷江上游干温河谷区划分为干旱河谷粮果林生态我，中山，亚高山林药菌生态林业区，高山灌丛草甸，草甸生态特业区，并提出了不同的生态经济类型区的生态恢复与重建模式，最后，论述了生态恢复与重建的工程措施，生物措施及管理措施。     

英国农村剩余劳动力转移及对中国的启示

英国最早进行工业革命,其中出现的农村剩余劳动力的转移问题值得学习和借鉴,文章在阐述英国农业剩余劳动力产生原因的基础上,说明出现的问题和对策,同时分析对目前中国农村劳动力转移的启示作用。     

社会主义市场经济与中国法律制度的建构

社会主义市场经济对现代法律制度有一种必然的要求,但中国的法律传统对现代法律制度形成了巨大的挑战。如何处理好传统和现代的关系,以及如何实现法律精神和法律观念的现代化,这些都是一些必须要加以解决的问题。中国法律制度的建构必须要确立建构的前提和原则。本文认为,中国法律制度建构的前提是进行公法和私法的划分,原则有:1·合目的性和合规律性相统一;2·形式合理性和实质合理性相统一;3·效率和公平平衡协调;4·从实际出发。     

FDI与中国:外国直接投资研究述评

外国直接投资联动形成的经济成分在中国国民经济中的成长已成为发达经济与发展中经济对接的世界性事件。梳理外国直接投资研究的新进展,剖析其对中国宏观经济的影响与挑战。     

物业税的开征对房地产市场的调控作用

从长期看,房价会随着经济的增长而增长。但我国房价近年来每年以30%～50%的速度增长肯定是有问题的。高房价成了目前中国社会各种矛盾的焦点之一。政府可以通过法律与制度来调整目前国内房地产市场严重的利益不均衡。而税收政策就是其中不可或缺的工具。文中从物业税设置的必要性、可行性等方面加以论述,讨论了物业税开征对房价的调控作用。     

新工业化背景下民营投资研究

新工业化是经济发展的必然要求,是强国富民的新历史性机遇,必将对全球经济的格局产生广泛而深远的影响。本文试图探讨新工业化的内涵及主要影响,结合我国民营企业的现状,指出民营投资的方向和思路,认为必须加大对人力资源的开发与管理,拓宽融资渠道,将投资重点集中在具有竞争优势的网络产品、软件、生物药业等方面。     

内部控制评价的比较分析

本文认为,根据评价主体的不同,内部控制评价可以分为外部评价和内部评价,具体有会计报表审计中的内部控制评价、内部控制审核、内部审计人员对内部控制的评价和内部控制自我评估。不同主体对内部控制的评价在目标、范围、方法、内容和程序等方面存在差异,本文比较分析它们之间的差异,对内部控制评价的未来发展趋势进行展望。