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71.
Helmut Herwartz 《Empirical Economics》1999,24(2):271-301
The paper provides a comparison of alternative univariate time series models that are advocated for the analysis of seasonal
data. Consumption and income series from (West-) Germany, United Kingdom, Japan and Sweden are investigated. The performance
of competing models in forecasting is used to assess the adequacy of a specific model. To account for nonstationarity first
and annual differences of the series are investigated. In addition, time series models assuming periodic integration are evaluated.
To describe the stationary dynamics (standard) time invariant parametrizations are compared with periodic time series models
conditioning the data generating process on the season. Periodic models improve the in-sample fit considerably but in most
cases under study this model class involves a loss in ex-ante forecasting relative to nonperiodic models. Inference on unit-roots
indicates that the nonstationary characteristics of consumption and income data may differ. For German and Swedish data forecasting
exercises yield a unique recommendation of unit roots in consumption and income data which is an important (initial) result
for multivariate analysis. Time series models assuming periodic integration are parsimonious to specify but often involve
correlated one-step-ahead forecast errors.
First version received: April 1996/final version received: January 1998 相似文献
72.
Starting from a linear error correction model (ECM) the stability and linearity of a German M1 money demand function are investigated, applying smooth transition regression techniques. Using seasonally unadjusted quarterly data from 1961(1) to 1990(2) it is found that the money demand equation considered is both linear and stable. After extending the sampling period until 1995(4) a clear structural instability due to the monetary unification on 1 July 1990 is found and subsequently modelled. A non-linear specification for the extended period is presented and discussed. Copyright © 1999 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 相似文献
73.
Bernd Kempa Helmut Reisen Hansjörg Herr Lukas Menkhoff Friedrich Thieβen Tommy Jehmlich 《Wirtschaftsdienst》2018,98(10):691-710
The importance of the industrialized countries – including the USA – for world production has been declining for a long time. By contrast, China’s share in particular has increased significantly. Nevertheless, the US dollar has largely fulfilled the criteria for a leading currency function so far, even if this is increasingly criticised due to the protectionist rhetoric of the US. Accordingly, central banks worldwide hold their reserves primarily in US dollars and transactions are largely conducted in US currency. This position brings great advantages–such as making it easier for the US to monitor and enforce sanctions, among other things–and therefore great incentives for the US to maintain its position as the leading currency. Whether other currencies, especially the renminbi, will be able to fulfil the lead currency function is questionable. Similarly, it does not seem realistic that market participants will be able to engage in a global currency. 相似文献
74.
We examine the change of the gender wage gap in Austria between 2002 and 2007 using Juhn et al. (Workers and their wages, AEI Press, Washington DC, pp 107–143, 1991) decomposition. We analyze data from Austrian tax records which we merge with social security records and Austrian micro-censuses of the years 2002 and 2007. We find that the gender wage gap declined from 21 % in 2002 to 18 % in 2007. The main determinant of this decline is the relative improvement of women’s unobserved characteristics. The decline of the gender wage gap is also due to women having attained more formal education and to a convergence of men’s and women’s returns to education. Women’s improved educational attainments were partly offset by a shift in the demand for skilled workers that disadvantaged unskilled workers, most of whom are women, resulting in a moderate decrease of the gender pay gap over these years. Robustness checks confirm our results. 相似文献
75.
In this article, convergence of unit labor cost (ULC) inflation within the Euro area is tested by means of panel unit root tests. To account for the small cross-sectional dimension, cross-sectional dependence of model innovations and time varying volatility, wild bootstrap critical values are employed for inference. Convergence is tested separately for pre- and post-Euro introduction subperiods. Moreover, we identify particular economies that are characterized by diverging ULC inflation after the introduction of the Euro. While the German economy is characterized by ULC inflation which is persistently below the sample average, Spain and Italy have suffered sustained losses of price competitiveness against their trading partners within the Euro area. ULC inflation in Finland, France, and Ireland can be classified as neutral with respect to relative competitive positions. 相似文献
76.
The paper analyzes why households hold sizeable shares of their assets in cash at home rather than at banks – a phenomenon that is widespread in many economies but for which information is scarce. Using survey data from ten Central, Eastern and Southeastern European countries, I document the relevance of this behavior and show that cash preferences cannot be fully explained by whether people are banked or unbanked. The analysis reveals that a lack of trust in banks, memories of past banking crises and weak tax enforcement are important factors. Moreover, cash preferences are stronger in dollarized economies where a “safe” foreign currency serves as a store of value. 相似文献
77.
This paper studies the innovation dynamics of an oligopolistic industry. The firms compete not only in the output market but also by engaging in productivity enhancing innovations to reduce labor costs. Rent sharing may generate productivity dependent wage differentials. Productivity growth creates intertemporal spillover effects, which affect the incentives for innovation at subsequent dates. Over time the industry equilibrium approaches a steady state. The paper characterizes the evolution of the industry's innovation behavior and its market structure on the adjustment path. 相似文献
78.
Helmut Fryges 《Small Business Economics》2009,33(2):165-187
Based on longitudinal data, this article examines empirically the long-term export behaviour of German and British technology-oriented
firms founded between 1987 and 1996. Applying logit models, the results show that firms can overcome high entry costs by acquiring
firm-specific assets. Similarly, firm-specific resources prevent high-tech companies from exiting the international market.
The strategic role of investment in R&D is stressed in particular by the data.
相似文献
Helmut FrygesEmail: |
79.
In this paper, we analyse the impacts of low interest rates and lax underwriting standards on the US housing boom around the beginning of the new millennium. We suggest a time-varying mean of the log price-to-rent ratio (PtR) to capture the persistent changes in housing prices. We show that the increasing latent trend in the PtR was significantly affected by the increased securitization of residential mortgage loans and decreasing interest rates, with the former effect being about three times larger than the latter. In the absence of securitization, negative interest rates would have been needed to reproduce an equally large housing boom since 2003. 相似文献
80.
Measuring Spot Variance Spillovers when (Co)variances are Time‐varying – The Case of Multivariate GARCH Models 下载免费PDF全文
We propose global and disaggregated spillover indices that allow us to assess variance and covariance spillovers, locally in time and conditionally on time‐t information. Key to our approach is the vector moving average representation of the half‐vectorized ‘squared’ multivariate GARCH process of the popular BEKK model. In an empirical application to a four‐dimensional system of broad asset classes (equity, fixed income, foreign exchange and commodities), we illustrate the new spillover indices at various levels of (dis)aggregation. Moreover, we demonstrate that they are informative of the value‐at‐risk violations of portfolios composed of the considered asset classes. 相似文献