Generalized piecewise linear histograms

We extend the concept of piecewise linear histogram introduced recently by Beirlant, Berlinet and Györfi. The disadvantage of that histogram is that in many models it takes on negative values with probability close to 1. We show that for a wide set of models, the extended class of estimates contains a bona fide density with probability tending to 1 as the sample size n increases to infinity. The mean integrated absolute error in the extended class of estimators decreases with the same rate n^–2/5 as in the original narrower class.     

Preference adjustment and opportunities for agreement: Decision modeling to assess negotiating flexibility at UNCED

This paper develops a conceptual framework and applies it to analyze the dynamics of national interests in prenegotiation. The study's goals are to develop a systematic approach for analyzing prenegotiation processes and provide results that will have practical utility for negotiators. Specifically, the approach is applied to the prenegotiation process of the 1992 United Nations Conference on Environment and Development (UNCED), examining the financial resources issue, in particular. Decision analytic models were built to account for three key negotiation actors, and sensitivity analyses were performed to evaluate the incremental modifications to issue preferences required to achieve mutually acceptable compromises. Conclusions are drawn that indicate the extent of flexibility required of key negotiation actors to take advantage of the opportunities for agreement in the financial resources issue area. The conceptual framework and methodological approach explored in this paper can provide practical assistance as a planning tool for negotiators, helping them to diagnose the situation and plan strategies for future environmental and other multilateral negotiations. The approach can suggest specific opportunities for compromise and the degree and type of flexibility needed to achieve a convergence of interests on the issue.     

Analysing the Diversity of Water Pricing Structures: The Case of France

This paper presents the results of a 2003 national survey of urban water pricing structure implemented by 429 district level water utilities. After providing some background elements on the diversity of existing water pricing structures, the paper shows how each structure can be used to achieve different management objectives (water allocation efficiency, costs recovery, and equity). It then describes the structures adopted by French water utilities, showing that flat rate are rarely adopted; declining blocks frequently used; and increasing blocks pricing which should be used to promote water use efficiency remain extremely rare. A statistical clustering is then conducted and a typology of situations elaborated. The paper concludes with highlighting that current pricing structures are influenced by past practices and that the dominant objective of water utilities is to cover costs.     

Economic analysis of the impact of adopting herd health control programs on smallholder dairy farms in Central Thailand

The economic impact of adopting herd health programs for mastitis and reproduction by small-scale dairy producers of Central Thailand was assessed using a policy analysis matrix (PAM). Following a reduction in the incidence of bovine disease on adopter farms, an increase in private net profits is observed. More importantly the social costs of supporting dairy farmers is reduced; the PAM effective protection coefficient was reduced by 35% for mastitis program adopters and by 44% for reproductive program adopters, indicating improved social efficiency of dairy policy. Other indicators of efficiency and policy implications are discussed.     

Speculative attack against the Hungarian forint

In mid-January 2003 a severe speculative attack was launched against the exchange rate of the Hungarian forint. The attack was very unusual in the history of foreign exchange speculations, since it was aimed at enforcing the appreciation — and not the depreciation — of the currency targeted. The specific nature of this kind of speculation is closely related to Hungary’s accession to the European Union in general and to EMU in particular. Since the other Central and Eastern European acceding countries face similar problems and challenges, the Hungarian experience may involve some instructive lessons on monetary and economic policy for them too.