A Personal Agenda for the Next Decade

The paper sets a broad agenda touching several areas of policy. It starts from the least likely policy at this point of time, the use of the tax system for redistribution. It discusses prudent macroeconomic coordination without the strings of the Maastricht Treaty in business troughs. Regulation of financial markets, agricultural policies, and health issues are coming up on a desirable agenda of the United States, but are probably important for all countries, as are social security policy and climate change.     

Should the Pre‐Notification of Mergers Be Compulsory in Australia?

Australia is unusual among the world's antitrust jurisdictions in not making the pre‐notification of mergers compulsory. However, if the parties are concerned that the Australian Competition and Consumer Commission (ACCC) is likely to object to the merger, there are strong incentives for them to notify the ACCC as the regulator has developed a strong reputation for imposing heavy costs on parties that fail to notify such mergers. The result is a system of quasi‐compulsory notification that creates the strongest incentives for parties to notify the ACCC of those proposals to which it is most likely to object. This study analyses data extracted from the ACCC's merger database and the empirical results are consistent with this characterisation. Mergers reported voluntarily by the parties are found to experience longer delays to completion, and are more likely to be challenged by the ACCC, when compared with a sample of all other mergers assessed by the regulator. The results suggest that non‐compulsory notification allows the parties themselves to pre‐sort the proposed merger vis‐à‐vis its interest to the ACCC.     

Competitive equilibria with limited enforcement

We show how to decentralize constrained efficient allocations that arise from enforcement constraints between sovereign nations. In a pure exchange economy these allocations can be decentralized with private agents acting competitively and taking as given government default decisions on foreign debt. In an economy with capital these allocations can be decentralized if the government can tax capital income as well as default on foreign debt. The tax on capital income is needed to make private agents internalize a subtle externality. The decisions of the government can arise as an equilibrium of a dynamic game between governments.     

动力工程安全的科学保障

为了对设计，施工，运行中的电站实施科学保障，动力工程科学研究院参与制定了《水工建筑物安全法》；制定了电站建筑物安全评价方法，并对一些大型工程进行了状态评价，根据安全准则实施了科研工作；在保障动力工程安全方面取得了有价值的成果。     

Using bald eagles to indicate the health of the Great Lakes' environment

The bald eagle (Haliaeetus leucocephalus) is one of the most studied birds of North America, and a great amount of natural life‐history information, including the response of various stressors on the eagles' ability to reproduce, are well known. In Michigan, the eagle has been chosen to track the trends of bioaccumulative compounds of concern across watersheds in the state. The state has been divided into major watersheds, and 20% of these are surveyed each year. A control area in northern Minnesota, Voyageurs National Park, is also sampled annually. We report here on the methods used, the preliminary results of the 1999 field season, and how differences in mercury concentrations varied over a 10‐year period. Mercury in feathers of nestling eagles declined over time only in Lakes Michigan and Huron, but have not decreased among other subpopulations in Michigan. Concentrations of polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs) and 4,4′‐DDE in blood plasma from nestling eagles have declined over time for most subpopulations; however, they remain greater for breeding areas associated with the Great Lakes' food web. Sea eagles of the genus Haliaeetus are a good sentinel species to track trends in bioaccumulative compounds in aquatic systems.     

俄罗斯电力部门水工建筑物安全科技中心的工作

俄罗斯电力部门水工建筑物安全科技中心是根据1996年12月11日俄罗斯统一电力系统股份公司和统一电力同业会联合发布的358／51号指令成立的。介绍了该科技中心的基本任务和近5a中所开展的工作。     

MODELING THE TERM STRUCTURE FROM THE ON‐THE‐RUN TREASURY YIELD CURVE

We propose a new model to estimate the term structure of interest rates using observed on‐the‐run Treasury yields. The new model is an improvement over models that require a priori knowledge of the shape of the yield curve to estimate the term structure. The general form of the model is an exponential function that depends on the estimation of four parameters fit by nonlinear least squares and has straightforward interpretations. In comparing the proposed model with current yield‐curve‐smoothing models, we find that, for the data used, the proposed model does best overall in terms of pricing accuracy both in sample and out of sample. JEL classification: E43, G12     

Uncertainty Associated with Future Environmental Costs and the Market's Differential Response to Earnings Information

This study examines whether the uncertainty arising from a firm's exposure to future environmental costs (environmental uncertainty) affects the market's price sensitivity to reported earnings. Specifically, when environmental uncertainty is significantly high, are investors more responsive to reported earnings released by 'high-polluting' firms than reported earnings announced by 'low-polluting' firms within the same industry? The initial impact of Title IV (the acid rain provisions) of the 1990 Clean Air Act Amendments (1990 CAAA) on the US electric utility industry provides the research setting required to isolate the effects of environmental uncertainty while addressing this question. Consistent with theoretical predictions, we find that the earnings response coefficients (ERCs) of high-polluting electric utilities are significantly greater than those of their low-polluting counterparts during a predicted period of elevated environmental uncertainty. In adjoining sample years associated with lower environmental uncertainty, we observe no statistical difference in the magnitude of the ERCs between these two groups. In addition, the study's findings suggest that the magnitude of the ERC is increasing in the firm's exposure to future environmental costs, after controlling for other factors that potentially affect ERCs.     

全球金融：过去与现在

尽管偶尔有些失望与不信任的言论出现，经济生活的全球化现在仍然成为了必然之势。在过去的几十年中，恐怕再也没有其他场所比全球金融市场更能体现这种日渐普遍的趋势。资本流动的倍增给发达国家和发展中国家都创造了无数新的盈利机会，同时，也给这些国家的政策制定者带来了艰巨的挑战，一切还都尘埃未定。     

Internal labour markets in the Australian banking industry: their nature prior to the Second World War and their recent decline

This paper uses evidence from late nineteenth-and early twentieth-century personnel records of two Australian banks to examine the nature of internal labour markets prior to the Second World War. It is argued that the industry possessed all the classic features of internal labour markets: limited ports of entry, internal promotion, long careers, and assignment of wages by well-defined rules. The paper then examines the reasons why banks adopted internal labour markets. Finally, the paper examines the recent decline of internal labour markets and examines the role of technological and social changes in this decline.