Tourism as an alternative source of regional growth in Portugal: a panel data analysis at NUTS II and III levels

The role of tourism is of vital economic importance, particularly for small countries with a privileged geographical location and favourable weather conditions. This paper examines the importance of tourism as a conditioning factor for higher regional growth in Portugal by employing the conditional convergence hypothesis of Barro and Sala-i-Martin, associated with the endogenous growth theory. The panel data estimation approach provides evidence of the positive impact of tourism (through the accommodation capacity) on the growth in per-capita income among the Portuguese regions, increasing the rate of convergence. Therefore, tourism can be considered as an alternative source for stimulating higher regional growth in Portugal, if the supply characteristics of this sector are improved.     

基于Panel—Data模型的山东省区域旅游问题研究

旅游业已被公认为“朝阳产业”、“无烟工业”，是集吃、住、行、游、购、娱为一体的综合性很强的产业，其光明的发展前景已为世人所公认。旅游业对其相关产业的牵动比例为1：4，可以充分带动地方经济的发展，发展潜力很大。本文运用了山东省17地市的国内旅游情况的合成数据，通过建立完整的计量模型，进行计量分析，进而发现各地市每增加一万人次的旅游者，对该地区的旅游经济的影响存在一定的差异，并且对于差异进行聚类分析，得出全省各地市的不同属类，为山东省日后旅游市场的更好发展提出了一些相应的建议。     

A market model of analysts’ opinions to explain changes in the dispersion of opinions

The demand for and supply of analysts’ opinions in this model yield an equilibrium that demonstrates how the information content of the opinions reacts to changes in exogenous parameters. The model also shows how changes in the parameters make analysts’ opinions more or less dispersed; for example, a decline in investor risk aversion, a decrease in market volatility, and an increase in information costs can lead to analysts’ opinions becoming more similar. Recognizing how exogenous factors can affect the supply and demand of analysts’ opinions gives additional insights into questions concerning what may appear to be herd behavior by analysts and also the relationship between forecast dispersion and information content. (JEL: G29, C71)     

国库现金对货币供给政策的影响机制及证据:基于中国中央银行经理国库制度背景的研究

随着近年来国库现金的迅速增加,万亿国库现金波动对中央银行货币供给政策的影响日益突出。本文在中国中央银行经理国库的制度背景下,通过构建国库现金与货币供给的理论分析框架所做的研究表明,国库现金与基础货币、货币供应量都存在稳定的反向关系,国库现金的增减将导致基础货币和货币供应量的收缩和扩张。本文进一步以中国2000~2006年月度时间序列数据进行的经验分析显示,国库现金与各层次货币供应量之间存在长期的协整关系,国库现金是引起货币供应量变化的Granger因,国库现金的正向冲击导致货币供应量产生显著的负向反应,货币供应量由于国库现金增减而产生收缩和扩张效应。基于研究结论,本文根据当前中国具体情况提出了若干政策建议。     

Immobiliencontrolling — Optimierung der immobilienbezogenen Kosten durch Gründung einer Generalmietgesellschaft

Ohne Zusammenfassung Dipl.-Ing. (univ.) Michael Belau ist Director und Head of Rental Management Dipl.-Wirtschaftsing. (FH) Michael Schildger ist Vice President und Head of Finance Dr. Verena Sturm ist Manager Corporate Real Estate Services     

水轮机过流部件磨蚀问题的研究与防护

针对我国高含沙水流中运行的水轮机组的过流部件的磨蚀这个长期存在的疑难问题，开展研究工作，在分析水轮机过流部件泥沙磨损、空化破坏各自的磨损机理、特点、影响因素、预测模型等的基础上，总结出水轮机过流部件的磨蚀主要是泥沙磨损、空化破坏及它们的联合作用，提出水轮机过流部件磨蚀的主要防护措施，为最终解决水轮机过流部件磨蚀问题提供了理论依据。图6幅，表1个。     

EXPERIMENTAL STUDIES AND NUMERICAL CALCULATION ON TURBULENT BOUNDARY LAYER OF WATER FLOW ALONG CURVED SURFACE

This paper will introduce experimental studies and numerical calculation onturbulent boundary layer of water flow along curved surface in our country in recent years.Onthe basis of the experimental studies,the effects of curvature and roughness on velocitydistribution and pressure distribution and the change of turbulent flow boundary layer onoverflow bucket concave surface is discussed.We proposed the empirical formula of velocity,pressure and the change of turbulent flow boundary layer on outlet bucket concave.According tothe momentum principle,we have deduced the momentum integral equation full water depthboundary layer and using the element as control unit inside the boundary layer on concavesurface of bucket.Combining with continuity equation,we have computed the boundary layerdevelopment on the bucket of a spillway.Compared with the field experimental data,thecalculation results are available.Under polar coordinates,a mathematical model for simulatingtime-averaged flow characteristics in concave surface of bucket is established.The turbulent flowfield on concave surface of bucket is calculated by SIMPLE method and this mathematicalmodel.The flow velocity field,pressure field,distribution of turbulent kinetic energy,distribution of turbulent energy dissipating rate and distribution of shear stress are available.Thecalculation value is consistent with measured test data.     

以设计为龙头的工程总承包建设模式推动MgO混凝土为拱坝新技术的应用

就新技术MgO混凝土拱坝与碾压混凝土拱坝的不同之处作了对比。论述了广东长沙拱坝成功应用MgO混凝土筑坝的意义，认为该顶新技术又一次能在2001年1季度末开始浇筑的贵州沙老河拱坝应用，是由一机制的原因起了作用，即：以设计为在龙头的总承包建设模式，可以对大型新技术的应用起推动作用。