The number of pure Nash equilibria in a random game with nondecreasing best responses

We randomly draw a game from a distribution on the set of two-player games with a given size. We compute the distribution and the expectation of the number of pure-strategy Nash equilibria of the game conditional on the game having nondecreasing best-response functions. The conditional expected number of pure-strategy Nash equilibria becomes much larger than the unconditional expected number as the size of the game grows.     

On a Statistical Analysis of Implied Data

We propose a method of evaluating the accuracy of the implied default probabilities. We modify the model proposed by Duffie et al. (Rev Fin Stud 12:678–720, 1999) to allow the parametric statistical analysis. The pseudo maximum likelihood estimator is defined and to justify our method we shall prove the consistency and the asymptotic normality of the estimator. The key step is to define a pseudo score vector and apply the method of Wald (Ann Math Stat 20: 595–601, 1949) and a delta method. We also introduce the bootstrap for estimating the accuracies, which is similar to that for regression models. To implement our method to the real data, we shall recommend the bootstrap rather than asymptotic normality.     

The increasing importance of nonfarm income and the changing use of labor and capital in rice farming: the case of Central Luzon, 1979–2003

There have been sharp increases in nonfarm income among farm households in Central Luzon for the last few decades. This study attempts to identify the effects of the increasing nonfarm income on the use of tractors and threshers and on the employment of hired labor as a substitute for family labor. We found that while the increased nonfarm income positively affects the ownership of tractors, it has no significant impact on the use of agricultural machines due presumably to the development of efficient machine rental markets. We also found that the increased nonfarm income leads to the increased use of hired labor, thereby releasing family labor to nonfarm jobs.     

Distributional effects of agricultural cooperatives in China: Exclusion of smallholders and potential gains on participation

This paper examines the treatment effects of the agricultural cooperative and publicly funded extension services on individual household economy, using data collected by the author from watermelon-producing farm households in rural Nanjing. The cooperative addressed in this study restricts the participation of small-scale farmers, implying that selection into the program must be taken into consideration for an accurate assessment of the treatment effect. The econometric analysis revealed that government extension services have a modest effect on farm income. In contrast, the treatment effect of the agricultural cooperative is robust and substantially large, accounting for nearly 70% of the pre-matching difference. This suggests that the agricultural cooperative system is an important avenue for farmers to improve their economic status. The treatment effect of the agricultural cooperative is highly heterogeneous; the economic benefits arising from the cooperative are significant only for small-scale farms. We can argue that a coexistence of smallholder exclusion and the treatment effect in favor of small-scale farms poses serious challenges to pro-poor agricultural growth in China.     

Toward Reasonable Capitalism: The Role of John R. Commons’s Price and Business Cycle Theories

Abstract

John R. Commons thought that prices should be stable and that the law of supply and demand should be controlled by the power of the state through patent law and by protecting bargaining equality. Commons also thought that prices should be stabilized by macro monetary policy. These means would allow the realization of a “reasonable price.” Commons called the objective and measurable value in money, which is determined by a court ruling, “reasonable value.” Analysis of Commons’s price and business cycle theories point toward the realization of both “reasonable price” and “reasonable value” and toward “reasonable capitalism” that can replace banker capitalism.     

Assessing Mortality Risk from Heat Stress due to Global Warming

With gradually progressing climate change in the future, the frequency and scale of hot summers like those observed in various places around the world in recent years will undoubtedly increase, giving rise to strong concerns over increased risk of death due to heat stress. Based on this background, we have developed a method to assess future changes in mortality due to heat stress with the entire globe as the target, and performed trial calculations using this method. The purpose of this report is to draw people's attention to the possible severe consequences of climate change by presenting the severest estimates in the uncertainty range due to adaptation/acclimation expected in the future, so as to induce further analysis and discussion on policies and measures. For the trial calculations, future changes in temperature were derived from the results of simulation using an Atmosphere‐Ocean General Circulation Model with the highest spatial resolution in the world at the time of the study. Population densities were assumed not to alter in the future. Assuming that no adaptation or acclimation takes place, when the rates of change of excess mortality due to heat stress are examined by country, the results of our calculations show increases of approximately 100% to 1000%. It is confirmed that the burden of climate change impact is quite unequal among countries, at least from the viewpoint of heat stress mortality. When considered together with present population densities, significant increases in excess mortality density can be seen in China, India, and Europe. These regions are characterized by large losses due to climate change in absolute quantitative terms. The need to consider the adoption of adaptation measures is therefore most urgent in these regions.     

Impact of initial seeds on the growth of biotechnology startups: evidence from the U.S. and Japan

ABSTRACT

We assess the impact of initial seeds on the long-run growth of biotechnology startups, including the response of the capital market, in the U.S. and Japan. For this purpose, we collected a comprehensive dataset of the matched sample of listed firms from their foundations to the post-IPO period. We find that the quality of initial seeds predicts significantly both the level and the growth rate of the patent stock as well as those of the asset size of the U.S. startups, even controlling for their alliances and acquisitions, while it predicts only the level of the patent stock for the Japanese startups. Furthermore, the asset growth and the patent stock growth in turn account for the market value performances of the U.S. firms much more significantly than those of the Japanese firms. On the other hand, there are only small differences with respect to the time to IPO and the asset growth through the IPO. These results suggest that higher quality of initial seeds significantly enhanced long-run growth of biotechnology startups in the U.S. but not in Japan, and that the differences in fertility of the initial seeds and in efficiency of the capital market could significantly explain the difference.     

LAND USE REGULATION AS A BARRIER TO ENTRY: EVIDENCE FROM THE TEXAS LODGING INDUSTRY*

This article examines the anticompetitive effects of land use regulation using microdata on midscale chain hotels in Texas. I construct a dynamic entry–exit model that endogenizes hotel chains’ reactions to land use regulation. My estimates indicate that imposing stringent regulation increases costs considerably. Hotel chains nonetheless enter highly regulated markets even if entry probabilities are lower, anticipating fewer rivals and hence greater market power. Consumers incur the costs of regulation indirectly in the form of higher prices.     

Enhanced heavy metals removal without phosphorus loss from anaerobically digested sewage sludge

Heavy metals removal without phosphorus loss from anaerobically digested sewage sludge was investigated by conducting batch experiments using hydrogen peroxide and/or iron sulphate under acidified conditions at pH 3. The addition of hydrogen peroxide to the sludge improved the elution efficiencies of As, Cd, Cu and Zn with phosphorus loss from the sludge. The optimum initial concentrations of hydrogen peroxide were. Respectively. 0.1% for As, Cd, Mn and Zn and 0.5% for Cu and Ni. The combined process of 0.1% hydrogen peroxide and 1 g Fe/L ferric sulphate enhanced the initial elution rate of Cu and Cr compared to the addition of either ferric sulphate or hydrogen peroxide, indicating that oxidants stronger than hydrogen peroxide were produced in the sludge. Furthermore, the combined process immobilised phosphorus in the sludge due to co-precipitation with ferric hydroxide or precipitation as ferric phosphate. It was concluded that there is a possibility that the combined process could remove heavy metals effectively without phosphorus loss from anaerobically digested sewage sludge.