Evaluation and selection of hedging policies using stochastic reservoir simulation

A hedging policy is characterized by three parameters, namely, starting water availability (SWA), ending water availability (EWA) and hedging factor (HF). The effects of these three parameters on the reservoir performance indicators have been evaluated and discussed for a southwest monsoon-dependent within-year reservoir system in southern India. For the performance evaluation, synthetically generated periodic inflow sequences from a periodic autoregressive model have been used. Quite a number of the 1800 hedging policies considered for the reservoir system, yield a better overall performance compared to the standard operating policy (SOP). Reliability, Resilience and vulnerability are found to increase with SWA for a specified EWA. On the other hand, all these performance indicators are found to decrease with EWA for a specified SWA. Hence, it is desirable to start the hedging at reasonably high SWA. All performance indicators remain practically constant at higher ranges of EWA for a given SWA. If hedging is started when there is enough water in storage, reliability, resilience and average deficit increase with degree of hedging, whereas vulnerability decreases significantly up to a hedging factor of 0.3. An interactive computer program has been developed for the selection of compromising hedging policies, and its usefulness has been discussed.     

Determinants of export performance

Comparative advantage, government incentives and entrepreneurial dynamics as determinants of a country’s export performance are discussed in this article. The author’s particular attention is focussed on the present situation and future perspectives of the less developed countries.     

Problems now and in the past

In some places, voices are raised today which assert that development aid is not worth the noise that is being made about it, because the industrialised countries went through exactly the same phase of development by their own, unaided efforts and still had arrived where they are now. Any development aid, so it is said, will only paralyse the determination of LDCs to aid themselves. The author discusses this assertion in the following article.     

Sampling Errors for Water Resources Design: The Need for Improved Hydrometry in Developing Countries

In recent years, there has been a marked decline in the amount of hydrological data being collected in many parts of the developing world. This paper reviews some of the arguments in favour of the continued collection of hydrological data. The technical case is based on the need for long record lengths in order to obtain a reasonable estimate for the mean and variability of river flows. Estimates are presented for the dependence of the standard error on record length for the case of the main sample statistics, for reservoir design and for flood estimation. Typical values are presented both in general terms and for some specific historical time series. The current status of hydrological data collection in Africa is then contrasted with the situation in Europe before concluding with the results of several case studies of schemes in Africa and Asia whose operational performance has been affected due to insufficient hydrological data.     

MORE ON WELFARE GAINS TO DEVELOPING COUNTRIES FROM LIBERALIZING WORLD FOOD TRADE

The common presumption that food-importing developing countries would be harmed by a liberalization of world food trade is questioned in this paper. Both theory and new empirical modelling evidence suggest the possibility of the opposite conclusion. Even if just advanced industrial countries were to liberalize their food trade, the present empirical analysis (using a model of world food markets) suggests that economic welfare and net foreign exchange earnings from food trade could improve for the vast majority of developing countries. The extent to which that gain would be greater if developing countries also were to liberalize their policies affecting food markets is shown as well. The analysis helps to reconcile differences between previous results using partial-equilibrium models and those derived from computable general equilibrium models.     

PRODUCER COOPERATIVES,INPUT PRICING AND LAND ALLOCATION

This paper considers input pricing rules for a producer cooperative which supplies its members with two inputs: a publicly provided private input (water), and a local public input (road services). An Israeli Moshav which allocates land equally among producers is a good example. The cooperative uses a two-part pricing rule: a product-dependent uniform fee (head tax) and a user charge per unit of the private input. Discrimination of head tax among the producer groups is shown to dominate that of user charge in the short run. However, land reallocation among producers can result in a Pareto-superior pricing rule and the Henry George theorem emerges in the long run. Thus, allowing land leasing while maintaining equal rights to land increases producer welfare.     

The Local Economic Impacts of the North American Waterfowl Management Plan in Saskatchewan

The North American Waterfowl Management Plan seeks to improve wildlife habitat and increase waterfowl numbers through voluntary transactions with farmers to modify their land management practices. The impact of modified land use practices on the incomes of participating farmers and the regional economy are estimated. The compensation offered under the Plan for modification of land use is determined to adequately offset any loss in participants' income. Income losses to the community due to reduced farm input sales were more than offset by the increase in NAWMP direct expenditures (excluding compensation payments). Distributional effects and externalities must be recognized and monitored to ensure success of the program     

Adjustment to changing international conditions

The structural changes in the world economy have made themselves increasingly felt in the Federal Republic of Germany over the past few years. For the first time since 1965 there is again a current account deficit, since merchandise trade is no longer able, due to the worsened terms of trade, to finance the traditional deficits on services and transfers. What policy should the Federal Government follow in order to help German industry adjust to these changes?     

Friend or Foe?— Farmer Perceptions of Biotechnologh1

This paper is the result of survey investigation the attitudes of Western Canadian farmers toward two biotechonological products, ENFIX-L and PB-50. Farmers were asked to rate both the importance and the performance of 21 attributes of the products. Soil depletion was found to be an important concern to many farmers. personal and environmental risks were less of a concern. Overall, it was found that the non-biotech-nological aspects of a product would prevail in purchasing decisions.     

Exchange‐Sponsored Analyst Coverage

Several major stock exchanges, including the NASDAQ and NYSE Euronext, have recently embarked on schemes to sponsor and promote analyst coverage for firms listed on their exchanges. We evaluate the efficacy of one such scheme pioneered by the Singapore Exchange (SGX). We find that sponsored analysts produce forecasts with similar bias, but lower accuracy than those issued by analysts voluntarily following a firm. In analyses that control for self‐selection into the SGX Scheme, we find that sponsored firms enjoy at best minor improvements in their information environments and stock liquidity. Any benefits accruing from the scheme are insufficient to make sponsored firms fully comparable to those of firms with voluntary analyst following on the measured attributes.