The impact of time duration between trades on the price of treasury note futures contracts

Recent research in finance has indicated that the institutional structure in which financial asset prices are determined can have a nontrivial impact on pricing. This report examines transaction level data for Treasury Note futures contracts traded at the Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) to identify institutional, or market microstructure, impacts on the pricing of these contracts. Relatively few articles have conducted empirical research on the microstructure of U.S. futures trading due to the limited availability of comprehensive transaction level data from the futures exchanges. This report uses the CBOT's Computerized Trade Reconstruction database, a comprehensive transaction level dataset, to identify the price impact of the time duration between trades in a manner analogous to that of A. Dufour and R. F. Engle (2000). Unique differences from prior research include the application to futures contracts with their relative higher frequency of trading, as well as the investigation of the price impact of the number of active traders present on the trading floor and the trading volume. Subsequent price and sign of trade significantly relate to the time duration between trades, the number of floor brokers, and the trading volume. © 2004 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Jrl. Fut Mark 24:965–980, 2004     

The contribution of a satellite market to price discovery: Evidence from the Singapore exchange

The Singapore Exchange (SGX), a small satellite market, successfully competes with a large home market, the Osaka Securities Exchange (OSE), in trading the Nikkei 225 futures index. In this paper, we investigate the contribution of the SGX to price discovery and shed light on the reasons for its continued success. Evidence is provided from information revelation and price discovery of three competing but informationally linked markets of the Nikkei 225 index—domestic spot (Tokyo Stock Exchange), domestic futures (OSE), and foreign futures (SGX), which represents the satellite market. Overall, the futures market contributes 77% to price discovery, with the satellite market contributing 42% of the futures and 33% of the total price discovery. These figures, surprisingly, far exceed the satellite market's share of trading volume. Support is provided for the extended trading hours on the SGX for three of the four non‐overlapping trading sub‐periods. © 2004 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Jrl Fut Mark 24:981–1004, 2004     

Contract modifications and the basis behavior of live cattle futures

The purpose of this study was to assess the basis behavior of the Live Cattle Futures contract at the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) before and after the 1995 contract changes. Additionally, an alternative method of basis calculation utilizing weighted mean futures prices versus settlement futures prices was compared to determine which method provides a better representation of the basis level. Within a regression model with heteroskedascity error framework, we found that the level of nearby basis in the period after June 1995 has shifted lower and the average monthly open interest of net commercial long positions has substantially increased after the contract modifications. These empirical results are consistent with the notion that more long activity entered the market in response to the contract modifications. Additionally, an alternative (new) measure of basis calculation (cash price minus weighted mean futures price) produced similar results to two other commonly used measures. In conclusion, the 1995 contract changes have neither increased nor decreased the volatility of live cattle basis. © 2004 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Jrl Fut Mark 24:557–590, 2004     

Using precise data sets on farming and pesticide properties to verify a diffuse pollution hydrological model for predicting pesticide concentration.

Verification of a diffuse pollution model involves comparing results actually observed with those predicted by precise model inputs. Acquisition of precise model inputs is, however, problematic. In particular, when the target catchment is large and substantial estimation uncertainty exists, not only model verification but also prediction is difficult. Therefore, in this study, rice-farming data were collected for all paddy fields from all farmers in a catchment and pesticide adsorption and degradation rates in paddy field soil samples were measured to obtain precise model inputs. The model inputs successfully verified the model's capability to predict pesticide concentrations in river water. Sensitivity analyses of the model inputs elucidated the processes significantly affecting pesticide runoff from rice farms. Pesticide adsorption and degradation rates of the soil did not significantly affect pesticide concentrations, although pesticide discharge to river water accounted for less than 50% of the total quantity of pesticide applied to fields, possibly owing to pesticide adsorption and degradation. The timing of increases in pesticide concentrations in river water was affected mostly by the farming schedule, including the time of pesticide application and irrigation, and secondarily by rainfall events.     

Comparison of the efficacy of oxidative processes and flocculation for the removal of colour from Eop effluent.

Up to 30% of the released colour arising from bleached kraft pulp and paper production comes from the alkaline extraction stage. This waste stream can therefore be readily targeted to remove colour at source in mills where improved colour management is required. The efficacy of five advanced oxidative treatment and physico-chemical technologies in removing colour from a typical Eop stage effluent was compared. The most effective oxidative treatment was peroxymonosulphate (79% colour removal in 15 minutes). Ozone and TAML treatments removed 74% and 58% of colour respectively within 30 minutes. In comparison, hydrogen peroxide alone was only able to remove 35% of the colour over 4 hours. Coagulation with polyaluminium chloride achieved 89% colour removal within 5 minutes. However, this treatment produced an undesirable sludge, and may cause toxicity in the treated wastewater. Overall, colour removal ability of the five technologies ranked from highest to lowest was polyaluminium chloride > peroxymonosulfate > ozone > TAML > hydrogen peroxide. Other factors, such as operating costs, feedstock modification and capital infrastructure, also need to be taken into account when selecting the most suitable colour management option.     

Information from successive changes in gold and silver prices during phases of the business cycles

This paper concerns the behavior of gold and silver prices on a daily, weekly and monthly time span during January 1970 to December 1989. The methodology consists of extracting the predictive power of time series of changes in past prices for obtaining optimal forecasts for next-period changes in prices. Optimizations are made in the context of information theory via minimizing the degree of diversity between the actual and predicted changes in prices. This methodology has merit in that it does not rest on, generally speaking, unacceptable assumptions regarding the shape of the distribution, stationarity of variance or its existence. The behavior of gold and silver prices are studied during peak to trough and trough to peak of the business cycles over 1970–1989. It is generally shown that information contained in past prices of gold and silver does not allow one to predict next-period changes in prices in the short run. However, longer-term predictions are possible. This study further reveals that as the length of the time interval expands, gold prices exhibit a higher degree of dependency on past prices than silver.     

A Study of Arbitrage Efficiency Between the FTSE‐100 Index Futures and Options Contracts

Despite the importance of the London markets and the significance of the relationship for market makers, little published research is available on arbitrage between the FTSE‐100 Index futures and the FTSE‐100 European index options contracts. This study uses the put–call–futures parity condition to throw light on the relationship between options and futures written against the FTSE Index. The arbitrage methodology adopted in this study avoids many of the problems that have affected prior research on the relationship between options or futures prices and the underlying index. The problems that arise from nonsynchroneity between options and futures prices are reduced by the matching of options and futures prices within narrow time intervals with time‐stamped transaction data. This study allows for realistic trading and market‐impact costs. The feasibility of strategies such as execute‐and‐hold and early unwinding is examined with both ex‐post and ex‐ante simulation tests that take into consideration possible execution time lags for the arbitrage trade. This study reveals that the occurrence of matched put–call–futures trios exhibits a U‐shaped intraday pattern with a concentration at both open and close, although the magnitude of observed mispricings has no discernible intraday pattern. Ex‐post arbitrage profits for traders facing transaction costs are concentrated in at‐the‐money options. As in other major markets, despite important microstructure differences, opportunities are generally rapidly extinguished in less than 3 min. The results suggest that arbitrage opportunities for traders facing transaction costs are small in number and confirm the efficiency of trading on the London International Financial Futures and Options Exchange. © 2002 John Wiley & Sons, Inc. Jrl Fut Mark 22:31–58, 2002     

Evaluating the stabilisation degree of digested sewage sludge: investigations at four municipal wastewater treatment plants.

Further reduction of volatile suspended solids (VSS) during a post-stabilisation step was applied to evaluate the stabilisation degree of digested sewage sludge. For this purpose digested sludge was collected at four municipal wastewater treatment plants (WWTPs) and further stabilised in lab-scale chemostat reactors either under anaerobic or aerobic conditions. Experimental results showed that even in adequately digested sludge a consistent amount of VSS was degraded during aerobic post-stabilisation. It seems that aerobic conditions play a significant role during degradation of residual VSS. Additionally, specific VSS production (gVSS/peCOD110.d) as well as specific oxygen uptake rate were shown to be suitable parameters to assess the degree of sludge stabilisation at WWTPs. Fourier transform infrared spectroscopy was used to reveal changes in the sludge composition. Spectra of treated and untreated sludge samples indicated that the major component of residual VSS in stabilised sludge for instance consisted of biomass, while cellulose was absent.     

Are Fundamentals Priced in the Bond Market?*

To date, the discussion of the Lev and Thiagarajan 1993 fundamentals in the prior literature has been exclusively in the context of the stock market. Our study is the first to examine the value‐relevance of these fundamentals for default risk. By focusing on the market for new bond issues, we examine the value‐relevance of the fundamental score using expected rather than realized returns. Also, by focusing on the bond market we provide a different perspective than that brought by prior studies relying solely on stock prices. We find the fundamentals to be priced in the market for new bond issues as indicators of expected future earnings and to be value‐relevant in enabling the market to discern differences in bond credit quality over and above the published bond ratings.     

Characteristics of estrogen decomposition by ozonation.

Since the natural estrogens 17 beta-estradiol (E2) and estron (E1), and the synthetic estrogen 17 alpha-ethynyl estradiol (EE2) have strong endocrine disrupting effects and the tendency to persist in effluent from wastewater treatment plants, effective measures are needed to remove them from wastewater. In this research, to gain an understanding of the characteristics of estrogen decomposition by ozonation, experiments were conducted using effluent from an actual wastewater treatment plant. In this experiment, estrogen was added to effluent at a concentration of 200 ng/l and 20 ng/l before the ozonation experiments. The results showed 90% or more of estrogen concentration and estrogenic activity of E2, El and EE2 to be removed at an ozone dose of 1 mg/l. At an ozone dose of 3 mg/l, the estrogen concentration and estrogenic activity of E2, El and EE2 in the treated water fell below the detection limit. The removal rate was not influenced by the kind of estrogen. No generation of byproducts with estrogenic activity was observed. The authors conclude that estrogen in secondary treated wastewater can be almost entirely removed at the practical ozone dose rate applied for the purpose of disinfection, which is up to about 5 mg/l.