Reforming Budgetary Institutions in Latin America: The Case for a National Fiscal Council

Latin America's economies have made tremendous improvements in recent years. Following the lost decade of the 1980s, economic growth has resumed. But the fruits of this progress remain to be consolidated. The political consensus supporting reform is fragile, and the economies of the region are still susceptible to destabilizing shocks, as recent events have underscored. Even well-devised economic policy strategies can be thrown off course by disturbances. This article proposes an institutional reform—a National Fiscal Council—designed to allow Latin American countries to break out of this vicious circle.     

Explaining Mortality Dynamics

Abstract

Using data for six OECD countries over the period 1950–2006, this paper studies the impact of macroeconomic fluctuations and cause of death trends on mortality dynamics in the Lee-Carter mortality forecasting model. The key results of this study are the following: (1) Periods can be identified in which the Lee-Carter mortality index k_t correlates significantly with macroeconomic fluctuations. (2) A few causes of death such as diseases of the circulatory system, influenza and pneumonia, and diabetes mellitus account for a large fraction of the variations in the Lee-Carter mortality index k_t . (3) Most cause-specific mortality rates show pronounced trends over the last few decades. These trends change the composition of deaths and alter how total mortality reacts to external factors such as macroeconomic fluctuations.     

Diversity of Slovenian high-growth companies

Firm growth is critical to economic development and the creation of wealth and employment. Exploring issues and challenges facing high-growth companies may offer valuable insights into promoting dynamic entrepreneurship in contemporary society. This paper investigates Slovenian high-growth companies （data from the Slovenian 500 fastest growing gazelles competition2007 to 2009）. Fundamental research questions are： Why do some firms continue to create new employment and find innovative solutions to old problems （i.e., they grow） whereas others--the majority, remain small and behave in accordance with the traditions of their respective industry？ Where do explanations for such divergence lie, in companies＇ size or industry--in entrepreneurs＇ or managers＇ gender, or in technology orientation （high-tech versus low-tech）？ This study aims to add to the literature on high-growth companies by examining high-growth companies to help people better understand the attributes associated with companies＇ growth. The findings provide evidence of considerable heterogeneity among Slovenian fast-growing companies, making any kind of policy which linked to ＂common characteristics＂ hard to formulate and implement. The discussion focuses on the importance of policies using a character framework to foster the working of markets, while removing unnecessary obstacles.     

The role of foreign direct investment in the host-country firm selection process: firm-level evidence from Slovenian manufacturing

This paper examines the role of inward foreign direct investment (FDI) in firm selection processes in the Slovenian manufacturing sector in the 1994–2003 period. It adopts the firm dynamics framework that allows testing of selection effects directly by assessing the impact of foreign firms’ activity on the probability of exiting of local firms (crowding out). The results show that intra-industry productivity spillover effects offset only a minor part of the competition pressure which results from foreign firm entry, hence incumbent firms experience a drop in their survival probability upon a foreign firm’s entry within a particular industry. This result is driven by foreign firm entry of the greenfield type, as entry through the acquisition of existing firms has no significant effect. The strength of the crowding-out effect decreases with the incumbent firm’s export propensity. There is no significant evidence that inward FDI would stimulate the selection process through backward linkages in the upstream supplying industries, whereas foreign firms’ activity reduces the exit probability of downstream local customers (through forward linkages).     

Evaluating,Comparing, Monitoring,and Improving Representativeness of Survey Response Through R‐Indicators and Partial R‐Indicators

Non‐response is a common source of error in many surveys. Because surveys often are costly instruments, quality‐cost trade‐offs play a continuing role in the design and analysis of surveys. The advances of telephone, computers, and Internet all had and still have considerable impact on the design of surveys. Recently, a strong focus on methods for survey data collection monitoring and tailoring has emerged as a new paradigm to efficiently reduce non‐response error. Paradata and adaptive survey designs are key words in these new developments. Prerequisites to evaluating, comparing, monitoring, and improving quality of survey response are a conceptual framework for representative survey response, indicators to measure deviations thereof, and indicators to identify subpopulations that need increased effort. In this paper, we present an overview of representativeness indicators or R‐indicators that are fit for these purposes. We give several examples and provide guidelines for their use in practice.     

Budgetary Consolidation in Europe: Quality, Economic Conditions, and Persistence

In this article we study the importance of the quality of fiscal adjustments and macroeconomic conditions for the persistence of budgetary consolidations. In contrast to previous work in this area, we do not arbitrarily predefine a measure of persistence to evaluate consolidation “success.” By employing duration analysis techniques, the length of a consolidation spell is rather determined endogenously. Our results based on a sample of industrialised OECD countries show that “consolidation fatigue” and the quality of fiscal consolidations are indeed important determinants of their longevity. Moreover, high debt–GDP ratio and fiscal tightening in other OECD countries raise the likelihood of consolidations to persist. Applying our results to European countries in the 1990s provides only weak evidence suggesting that the Maastricht process contributed much to the fiscal consolidations observed in Europe during the 1990s. J. Japan. Int. Econ., December 2002, 16(4), pp. 512–535. ZEI, University of Bonn, Bonn, Germany, Indiana University, Bloomington, Indiana; and CEPR; Strathclyde University, Glasgow, Scotland; and CEPR; and ECB, Kaiserstrasse 29, D-60311 Frankfurt a.M., Germany; and ZEI. © 2002 Elsevier Science (USA).Journal of Economic Literature Classification Numbers: E61, E62, E65.     

German dominance in the EMS

The paper assesses the merit of the view according to which the Bundesbank dominates monetary policy-making in the European Monetary System. Our tests give a strong rejection of German dominance and suggest, instead, that monetary policymaking in the EMS is interactive. There is evidence that the Bundesbank pursues her own policy goals in the longer run. But German independence does not imply German dominance.     

New evidence on the dynamic wage curve for Western Germany: 1980–2004

Blanchflower and Oswald [Blanchflower, David G. and Oswald, Andrew J., 1994a, The Wage Curve, (Cambridge, MA, MIT Press), Blanchflower, David G. and Oswald, Andrew J., 1994b, Estimating a Wage Curve for Britain 1973–90, The Economic Journal 104, 1025–1043. Eine praktische Einführung, Nürnberg] reported that they have found an ‘empirical law of economics’ — the Wage Curve. Our paper reconsiders the western German Wage Curve using disaggregated regional data and is based on almost one million employees drawn from the Federal Employment Services of Germany over the period 1980–2004. We find that the wage equation is highly autoregressive but far from unit root. The unemployment elasticity is significant but relatively small: only between ? 0.02 and ? 0.04. We also check the sensitivity of this elasticity for different population groups (young versus old, men versus women, less educated versus highly educated, German native versus foreigner), confirming that it is stronger the weaker the bargaining power of the particular group.