Using Medicare data for short-run projections of the elderly population.

As the elderly population of the United States grows in absolute number and as a proportion of total population, accurate projections of that population become increasingly important for sound policy decisions. Cohort component techniques are typically used for state and local projections of the elderly population, but are often outdated or even nonexistent for many local areas. This paper suggests an alternative approach, based on Medicare data and simple projection techniques. Projections for several base periods and projection horizons are made for all states and for counties in Florida and are compared with actual Medicare enrollment. On the basis of these comparisons it appears that Medicare data and simple projection techniques can produce very useful short-run projections of the elderly population for states and local areas.     

MANAGERIAL INCENTIVES AND CORPORATE DIVERSIFICATION STRATEGIES

Because the break-up of conglomerates typically produces substantial increases in shareholder wealth, many commentators have argued that the conglomerate form of organization is inefficient. This article reports the findings of a number of recent academic studies, including the authors' own, that examine the causes and consequences of corporate diversification. Although theoretical arguments suggest that corporate diversification can have benefits as well as costs, several studies have documented that diversified firms trade at a significant discount from their single-segment peers. Estimates of this discount range from 10–15% of firm value, and are larger for “unrelated” diversification than for “related” diversification. If corporate diversification has generally been a value-reducing managerial strategy, why do firms remain diversified? One possibility, which the authors label the “agency cost” hypothesis, is that top executives without substantial equity stakes may have incentives to maintain a diversification strategy even if doing so reduces shareholder wealth. But, as top managers' ownership stakes increase, they bear a greater fraction of the costs associated with value-reducing policies and are therefore less likely to take actions that reduce shareholder wealth. Also, to the extent that outside blockholders monitor managerial behavior, the agency cost hypothesis predicts that diversification will be less prevalent in firms with large outside blockholders. Consistent with this argument, the authors find that companies in which managers own a significant fraction of the firm's shares, and in which blockholders own a large fraction of shares, are significantly less likely to be diversified. If agency problems lead managers to maintain value-reducing diversification strategies, what is it that leads some of these same firms to refocus? The agency cost hypothesis predicts that managers will reduce diversification only if pressured to do so by internal or external mechanisms that reduce agency problems. Consistent with this argument, the authors find that decreases in diversification appear to be precipitated by market disciplinary forces such as block purchases, acquisition attempts, and management turnover.     

R&D–Marketing Integration Mechanisms, Communication Flows, and Innovation Success

Rudy Moenaert, William Souder, Arnoud De Meyer, and Dirk Deschoolmeester report the results of their study of forty technologically innovative Belgian companies to examine the interaction between marketing and R&D. They studied one commercially successful and one commercially unsuccessful technological product innovation project in each participating company and collected data from one marketing and one R&D respondent per project. Communication flows between marketing and R&D are increased under conditions involving formalization of projects, decentralization, positive interfunctional climate, and role flexibility.     

An Analysis of Occupational Outcomes for Indigenous and Asian Employees in Australia

This paper examines occupational performance in Australia across three racial groups in Australia: Indigenous Australians; Asian people, defined as all those whose language spoken at home was either Chinese, Vietnamese or other forms of a South-east or East Asian language; and white people, defined as the residual category. The paper has as its starting point, observed differences in occupational attainment among the three groups in Australia and sets out to account for these observed differences on the basis of both race and non-racial attributes such as, age, education and area of residence.     

Removal of E. coli and helminth eggs in UASB: Polishing pond systems in Brazil.

Ponds following anaerobic reactors, such as Upflow Anaerobic Sludge Blanket (UASB) reactors, have been termed polishing ponds in the literature. The present paper analyses the removal of E. coli and helminth eggs in five UASB-polishing pond systems in Brazil. Since there were ponds in series, the total number of ponds was 10. The ponds had average retention times varying from 2 to 21 days, and depths ranging from 0.40 to 2.00 m. The shallow ponds in series, even with low retention times, were able to produce effluents complying with the coliform WHO guidelines for unrestricted irrigation (< or = 1000 MPN/100 ml). An equation for the coliform decay coefficient was proposed: Kb (dispersed flow) = 0.710H(-0955) (20 degrees C). The equation highlights the inverse relationship between the pond depth and the decay coefficient. All polishing pond systems were able to produce effluents with helminth eggs concentrations predominantly equal to zero, and satisfying the WHO guidelines for unrestricted and restricted irrigation (< or = 1 egg/L, arithmetic mean). The approximate range of helminth eggs removal efficiency was predicted satisfactorily.     

Value of Multinationality: Internalization, Managerial Self-interest, and Managerial Compensation

In this paper, we examine the impact of managerial self-interest on the value of multinationality. Since agency theory also suggests that a divergence between the interests of managers and shareholders can be aligned by effective managerial incentive, we also examine the effect of managerial compensation on the value of multinationality. Our results show that for high- Q (Tobin's Q > 1 ) firms, investors do not associate the spending of free cash flow on multinationality with the problem of overinvestments. For high- Q firms, it is also found that the value of multinationality can be enhanced by effective managerial incentives. For low- Q firms (Tobin's Q < 1 ), it is found that the concern of managerial self-interest overwhelms the benefits of internalization, making multinationality a value-decreasing event. For low- Q firms, managerial compensation is also ineffective in promoting value-enhancing foreign direct investments.     

Influence of influent tributaries on water quality changes in Lake Mogan, Turkey

Lake Mogan, located in the steppes of central Anatolia, is a vital Turkish ecological system, in terms of its water resources, flora and fauna. The lake also is a unique recreational area for Ankara, the capital of Turkey. However, the lake is currently threatened by severe pollution, being under the risk of serious degradation because of (i) uncontrolled urbanization; (ii) point and non‐point source pollution; (iii) inefficient sewerage systems; (iv) sediment transportation and pollution via influent creeks to the lake; (v) uncontrolled soil erosion in its drainage basin; (vi) inappropriate flood control measures; and (vii) severe degradation of the natural wetlands within its drainage basin. This study evaluates the influence of its influent creeks on the water quality of Lake Mogan, mainly because the creeks are believed to be responsible for the major pollutant load reaching the lake, and because the extensive database documenting this situation has not previously been critically evaluated. Accordingly, this study reviews (i) change in the water quality of Lake Mogan between 1993 and 2002; (ii) the water quality classification of the major influent creeks feeding Lake Mogan; and (iii) the influence of the influent creeks on the water quality of the lake between 1993 and 2004.     

Efficient Liability Rules: Complete Characterization

Received May, 18, 2000; revised version received March, 19, 2001     

A Conceptual Model of the Household's Housing Decision–Making Process: The Economic Perspective

At some stage in every household's family life cycle, the household is likely to make certain decisions with regard to its housing environment. Although the household's housing decisions essentially comprise the decision to move, and the selection of a new residence, the process from which these decisions are derived is very complex because varying circumstances could produce a multitude of different housing decisions. Due to the sheer complexity of the household's housing decision–making process, researchers have generally focused on individual decision–making stages rather than on the process as a whole. This paper therefore attempts to conceptualize the entire household housing decision–making process using theoretical concepts from the economic perspective, and then tests the conceptual model with empirical evidence drawn from the moving population within the multi–racial society in Singapore.