A Comparison of Short-Term Water Demand Forecasting Models

Water Resources Management - This paper presents a comparison of different short-term water demand forecasting models. The comparison regards six models that differ in terms of: forecasting...     

Disclosure of contingent legal liabilities

There has long been user dissatisfaction with firm’s disclosure of contingent legal liabilities, and the FASB, IASB, and SEC have all considered compliance issues and standard amendments on this topic in recent years. This study uses a sample of employment discrimination cases to provide evidence on the extent to which current contingent legal liability disclosures provide useful contingency evaluations. Consistent with legal concerns influencing reporting decisions, I find that current disclosure practices provide limited quantitative detail regarding the magnitude of the expected loss. However, the text of the disclosures does provide qualitative indicators of the probability of loss. I find evidence that statements about the inestimable nature of the loss and statements about the firm’s willingness to consider a settlement are related to higher probabilities of loss and higher loss amounts. I also find evidence that statements regarding an existing accrual for losses and warnings about materiality reflect a higher likelihood of a nontrivial loss. These results emphasize firms’ strong resistance to quantitative disclosures of legal contingencies but suggest that existing SFAS 5 disclosures do contain qualitative information useful for evaluating the loss contingency.     

Hydromorphology Meets Mammal Ecology: River Morphological Quality,Recent Channel Adjustments and Otter Resilience

The need for a multidisciplinary approach for characterizing water bodies in terms of morphological, chemical and ecological quality has hastened the growth of hydromorphology as a cross‐disciplinary topic at the interface of hydrology, geomorphology and ecology. Many authors have analysed how hydroecology may affect freshwater biodiversity, although little is known about how this biodiversity might be affected by river morphological quality. We examined how well the presence of the semi‐aquatic Eurasian otter can be predicted by the rivers' morphological quality and its adjustments over the last decades. We tested the morphological quality index (MQI) methodology in 38 reaches of five rivers in southern Italy, 23 of which were positive to otter presence. In each reach, we examined 28 indicators contributing to the MQI and its 11 sub‐indices. The results showed a significant relationship between the probability of the presence of otters, MQI, and some sub‐indices. The best performing sub‐indices were related to channel adjustments and the continuity of river processes. A more detailed analysis of channel adjustments showed a detrimental effect of channel incision (>3 m) and a positive effect of narrowing, particularly where it occurred simultaneously with the development of forest in the new floodplain. The continuity of river processes has driven the migration of river banks and the development of ponds and secondary channels, likely increasing the availability of dens and resting sites and the hunting capabilities of otters. Our results stressed the importance of fluvial dynamics and sustainable adaptive river management for the habitat quality of semi‐aquatic species. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Healthcare costs of stroke and major bleeding in patients with atrial fibrillation treated with non-vitamin K antagonist oral anticoagulants

Objective: To assess long-term healthcare costs related to ischemic stroke and systemic embolism (stroke/SE) and major bleeding (MB) events in patients with non-valvular atrial fibrillation (NVAF) treated with non-vitamin K antagonist oral anticoagulants (NOACs).

Materials and methods: Optum’s Clinformatics Data Mart database from 1/2009–12/2016 was analyzed. Adult patients with ≥1 stroke/SE hospitalization (index date) were matched 1:1 to patients without stroke/SE (random index date), based on propensity scores. Patients with an MB event were matched to patients without MB. All patients had an NOAC dispensing overlapping index date, ≥12?months of eligibility pre-index date, and ≥1 NVAF diagnosis. The observation period spanned from the index date until the earliest date of death, switch to warfarin, end of insurance coverage, or end of data availability. Mean costs were evaluated: (1) per-patient-per-year (PPPY) and (2) at 1, 2, 3, and 4?years using Lin's method.

Results: The cost differences were, respectively, $48,807 and $28,298 PPPY for NOAC users with stroke/SE (n?=?1,340) and those with MB (n?=?3,774) events compared to controls. Cost differences of patients with vs without stroke/SE were $49,876, $51,627, $57,822, and $60,691 at 1, 2, 3, and 4?years post-index, respectively (p?p?Limitations: Limitations include unobserved confounders, coding and/or billing inaccuracies, limited sample sizes over longer follow-up, and the under-reporting of mortality for deaths occurring after 2011.

Conclusions: The incremental healthcare costs incurred by patients with vs without stroke/SE was nearly twice as high as those of patients with vs without MB. Moreover, each additional year up to 4?years after the first event was associated with an incremental cost for patients with a stroke/SE or MB event compared to those without an event.     

The evaluation of the long-term economic development of the Irkutsk region in the system of the all-Russian forecasting

The long-term forecasting of the development of the Irkutsk region by economic sectors is considered. The evaluations of the structural changes and the interregional relationships by the variants of the potential trends of development of the economy of Siberia and Russia in a whole are presented. The forecast is made by the production output data, which are the basis of the target growth of the final consumption.     

Management earnings forecasts and the quality of analysts’ forecasts: The moderating effect of audit committees

This study investigates whether effective audit committees influence the association between management earnings forecasts and the properties of analysts’ forecasts. We posit that this influence on the part of an audit committee would likely result from increased responsibility for monitoring voluntary disclosure. Using the four attributes that the Blue Ribbon Committee (1999) and prior research suggest as being indicative of audit committee effectiveness, we find that analysts’ forecasts exhibit higher accuracy and lower dispersion with the issuance of management forecasts for those firms employing audit committees that are composed exclusively of independent directors, include an accounting expert, and act with due diligence. We also find that effective audit committees strengthen the association between management and analyst forecast accuracy. Our evidence, therefore, supports the notion that effective corporate governance influences the reliability of voluntary disclosure, and thereby benefits the users of financial information.     

Consumer cooperatives as an alternative form of governance: The case of the broadband industry

With a growing number of consumer cooperatives in non-agrarian industries such as energy and broadband, there is a need to better understand their emergence as a viable form of governance. In this context, the paper uses Mikami’s (2010) model on consumer cooperatives to explain their emergence as a result of their ability to generate additional equity financing through the membership market. It focuses on the motivations of consumers to financially contribute to a cooperative by examining the risks and benefits associated with the investment. Based on a survey of 759 consumers, it links their motivations for joining a cooperative to different forms of risks and benefits associated with the investment. It shows that the risks related to cost sharing and switching costs are important determinants for consumers. Other factors that affected the likelihood of joining a cooperative were expected benefits with respect to user network externalities and infrastructure gains.     

The Experience of Selling Experiences

In the experience economy, working conditions — that is, the experience of work — directly affect both job quality and the quality of the experience produced. We propose an alternative definition of job quality and apply this concept to a qualitative study of casino employees. Pay and benefits are crucial elements of sustainable livelihoods. But building a life also requires time away from the job, good health, and supportive institutions, including employers who treat their workers as human beings with complex lives. A good job reinforces, rather than undermines, a positive sense of identity.