Modeling phosphorus in the upper Etowah River basin: identifying sources under uncertainty.

The Uniform Covering by Probabilistic Rejection (UCPR) algorithm was used, in conjunction with the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model, to identify P loads from point source and nonpoint source polluters in the upper Etowah River basin (UERB) in Georgia. The key findings of the research are as follows. The mean absolute error was preferred over the root mean square error as a search criterion for the UCPR algorithm when water quality observations are scarce. The undocumented P load from point sources in the UERB was consistently estimated as about 43 kg/d by the proposed method; but the method was not able to identify the broiler litter application rate to the poultry/beef operation pastures. Point sources (both documented and undocumented), poultry/beef operation pastures, and forests are the three major contributors of P. During 1992-1996, on average they accounted for 36.4, 31.7, and 17.2% of P load from the UERB, respectively.     

Gene cassette-associated sequences from phosphorus and non-phosphorus removing microbial communities in aerobic:anaerobic sequencing batch reactors.

Mobile gene elements associated with integrons, including as gene cassettes, have been proposed to play an important role in bacterial evolution by providing an extensive genetic resource. This study hypothesized that critical genes for enzymes involved in EBPR systems, including those involved in polyphosphate, PHA and glycogen synthesis, may be present in mobile gene cassettes. Although no such genes were identified in any of the functional and deteriorated enhanced biological phosphorus removal (EBPR) laboratory-scale SBR systems examined here, many of the open reading frames (ORFs) remained unidentified because of the incompleteness of publicly available databases. An ORF of unknown function (SBR6-2) was encountered in deteriorated EBPR system with an unexpectedly high frequency, comprising 35% of the gene cassette-associated sequences for that system.     

Vulnerability and industrial hazards in industrializing countries: an integrative approach

The extra vulnerability of industrializing countries to environmental problems and industrial accidents cannot be understood or solved by a ‘normal’ scientific analysis. Aspects of the social and institutional context must be included, through analyses based on post-normal science. The standard two-dimensional classification of PNS is modified to have axes ‘social ‘and institutional vulnerabilities’ and ‘complexity of technological hazards’. The analysis is mainly applied to the case of the relatively rare accidents with catastrophic potential. In these, the deaths per accident in India, Mexico and Brazil are much greater than in the industrialized countries. This discrepancy arises partly from location of such plants near residential communities for marginalized workers and their families. Other socio-political factors are relevant, as the role of these countries in the global production system, the enforcement of safety and planning laws, quality of housing, and lifestyle of residents. Reducing the vulnerability of industrializing countries will therefore require major social policies and a comprehension of the limits of the normal scientific and economic approaches to such problems.     

Evaluation of hydrological processes in a mountainous small basin using a quinone biomarker.

An applicability of quinone biomarker to the analysis of hillslope runoff was investigated. At first, quinone profiles of three streams as well as a hillslope runoff in a forested headwater catchment were compared. The quinone composition of hillslope runoff differed from others. Moreover, there were remarkable differences in quinone profile of hillslope runoff under different rainfall conditions. Then, the behavior of quinone biomarker during the increase and decrease of hillslope runoff after a rainfall event was examined. The fractional changes in Q-9 (H2), Q-10 (H2), Q-11, MK-6 and MK-10 suggested the effect of interflow.     

Copper and zinc removal from roof runoff: from research to full-scale adsorber systems.

Large, uncoated copper and zinc roofs cause environmental problems if their runoff is infiltrated into the underground or discharged into receiving waters. Since source control is not always feasible, barrier systems for efficient copper and zinc removal are recommended in Switzerland. During the last few years, research carried out in order to test the performance of GIH-calcite adsorber filters as a barrier system. Adsorption and mass transport processes were assessed and described in a mathematical model. However, this model is not suitable for practical design, because it does not give explicit access to design parameters such as adsorber diameter and adsorber bed depth. Therefore, for e.g. engineers, an easy to use design guideline for GIH-calcite adsorber systems was developed, mainly based on the mathematical model. The core of this guideline is the design of the depth of the GIH-calcite adsorber layer. The depth is calculated by adding up the GIH depth for sorption equilibrium and the depth for the mass transfer zone (MTZ). Additionally, the arrangement of other adsorber system components such as particle separation and retention volume was considered in the guideline. Investigations of a full-scale adsorber confirm the successful application of this newly developed design guideline for the application of GIH-calcite adsorber systems in practice.     

The role of interparticle forces in colloidal aggregates: local investigations and modelling of restructuring during filtration.

Industrial solid-liquid separation processes, such as pressure filtration or membrane processes, involve the application of pressure to suspensions. In response, some water is extracted, the suspension volume is reduced, and the dispersed aggregates start to form a network. In recent works, we aimed to make a prediction for the response of aggregates to stress which occurs during a filtration. We chose model systems made of aggregated silica nanoparticles. Some of these systems offer a strong resistance to applied stresses, and retain their permeability; others yield and collapse. We used small angle neutron scattering by which we can locally quantify the particle distribution withi the network to determine the processes by which particles reorganise during collapse: we found that reordering processes at the scale of 1 to 10 particle diameters control the course of collapse and the loss of permeability. Finally we constructed a numerical model for describing the processes by which colloidal aggregates are compressed. This model predicts that the response of such networks to pressure follows some scaling laws, which depend only on the elastic vs. dissipative nature of interparticle bonds.     

Quasi‐rational and ex ante price expectations in commodity supply models: an empirical analysis of the US broiler market

A statistically optimal inference about agents' ex ante price expectations within the US broiler market is derived using futures prices of related commodities along with a quasi‐rational forecasting regression equation. The modelling approach, which builds on a Hamilton‐type framework, includes endogenous production and allows expected cash price to be decomposed into anticipated and unanticipated components. We therefore infer the relative importance of various informational sources in expectation formation. Results show that, in addition to the quasi‐rational forecast, the true supply shock, future prices, and ex post commodity price forecast errors have, at times, been influential in broiler producers' price expectations. Copyright © 2003 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.