Identifying significant characteristics of organic milk consumers: a CART analysis of an artefactual field experiment

The organic dairy category is one of the fastest growing categories of organic foods in the US. Organic milk consumers generally cite perceived health benefits and lower risk of food contamination, as well as perceived superior quality and environmental sustainability of organic farming methods, as the major motivations for preference of organic over conventional milk. While the attributes of organic milk that are valued by consumers are fairly well-known, more ambiguity exists regarding the demographic characteristics of the typical organic milk consumer. This research makes use of experimental data from 148 adult participants and use a Classification and Regression Tree (CART) analysis, a nonparametric modelling approach, to identify how Willingness-to-Pay (WTP) for organic milk varies with the demographic profile of experiment participants. The study finds that perceived taste of organic milk, concern for the risk of consuming conventional milk, being a primary shopper, and the quantity of milk consumed are the major factors that separate experiment participants into groups with high and low WTP for organic milk.     

State antitrust enforcement in the US and implications for small business entry and relocation

This article examines the impact of the important, yet little studied, state-level antitrust enforcement activity on entry and relocation behaviour by small US firms. Feinberg and Husted (2011) have shown that this enforcement, especially nonhorizontal cases, may be viewed by potential entrants as a negative aspect of the state business climate. However, they did not pursue a more disaggregate analysis of small firm entry behaviour; nor did they investigate different responses between manufacturing, wholesaling and retailing firms. Another related issue is the extent to which state cases filed in tandem with federal investigations have the same impact on establishment entry as do purely ‘independent’ cases. These considerations are dealt with in this article. The author uses annual state-level data from the Statistics of US Business to examine entry and relocation reactions to state antitrust enforcement by firms within three small-business categories: 1–19 employees; 20–99 employees; 100–499 employees. Generally speaking, the smallest retail and wholesale firms seem to favour vigorous antitrust activity, especially enforcement targeted against cartel behaviour by suppliers. The largest small-firm retailers and wholesalers (those with 100–499 employees) seem somewhat threatened by such activity, especially the more controversial nonhorizontal enforcement. However, it must be acknowledged that the effects on entry or relocation of small firms – both positive and negative – are quite small.     

Credit growth,current account and financial depth

Exploring the determinants and dynamics of the current account balance is one of the priorities of academic literature and policy circles. Although the effects of structural variables are deeply analysed, a lesser attention has been paid to the impact of financial variables. Drawing on standard empirical current account models and with a large sample of industrial and developing countries, we report a significant deterioration in the current account balance in case of an increase in the credit growth. Moreover, we find that this link is substantially stronger for the developing ones motivating a closer examination. Therefore, we further advance our analysis and show that credit growth causes a stronger impact on the current account balance for lower levels of financial depth. In other words, at the early stages of financial development, acceleration in the credit growth might cause a larger deterioration in the current account balance; thus, it might be suggested that monetary policy and macro-prudential measures aimed at preventing financial excess might be more effective to reduce the external imbalances at the early stages of financial deepening.     

Major league baseball’s Moneyball at age 15: a re-appraisal

In the 15 years since publication of the book Moneyball: The Art of Winning an Unfair Game in 2003, major-league baseball (MLB) has seen the embrace of analytics by both fans and teams. Using 45 seasons of MLB data, since the introduction of the designated-hitter in the American League in 1973, the present study validates the central premise in Moneyball regarding the importance of certain performance metrics, such as on-base percentage (OBP). The terms in our empirical model are constructed such that our results permit a straightforward comparison of the relative contribution of each factor towards MLB teams’ success in winning games. We also provide evidence indicating that MLB teams have moved to align their payrolls with Moneyball analytics in the years following the book’s publication.     

Filter Tests of U.K. Share Prices

The purpose of this paper is to develop and test a model of the promotional expenditure decision for a firm operating under conditions of combined uncertainty and oligopoly. The uncertainty is assumed to exist in respect of the impact of any particular level of promotional expenditure upon the demand conditions facing the firm.

The analysis forms part of a wider study of advertising by confectionery manufacturers and arose largely as a result of conversations with advertising executives in the confectionery market. In the course of these discussions it became clear that the existing body of theory concerning the promotional expenditure decision is almost completely incapable of accommodating the extensive uncertainty which is an integral part of the promotional decision in a market such as that under consideration. It also became clear (at least in the case of the confectionery market) (a) that decision makers regard the pricing and promotional expenditure decisions as being largely independent and (b) that in a large number of cases decision makers think in terms of a minimum or ‘threshold’ level of promotional expenditure. While these factors are predominantly in the nature of impressionistic informal observations and therefore of doubtful validity as bases for a scientific enquiry, it was nonetheless felt worthwhile to attempt to develop a theoretical framework capable of accommodating them.

While exhibiting considerable indeterminacy, the model developed below at least takes explicit cognisance of risk and uncertainty. It is also formulated in such a way that the promotional and pricing decisions are independent. It is rather remarkable and most encouraging that the analysis appears to predict something closely akin to minimum ‘threshold’ levels of advertising expenditure. Our theoretical exercise might therefore be afforded the minimal justification of providing a framework capable of accommodating the various results of introspection and conversational empiricism.     

Economic strategies of firms facing asymptotic demand: a case study

This paper is an attempt to determine the relationship between the pattern of growth of demand for consumer goods and the market behaviour of the firms selling them, particularly their advertising expenditures. The demand for many consumer goods may not witness a steady growth over time. Firms selling such products will have a market behaviour that differs in character and path from that of those selling in expending markets. In this article, I intend to analyse the market behaviour of firms producing toilet soap in the Australian economy.     

An economic evaluation attached to a single-centre,parallel group,unmasked, randomized controlled trial of a 3-day intensive social cognitive treatment (can do treatment) in patients with relapsing remitting multiple sclerosis and low disability

Abstract

Aims: This trial-based economic evaluation (EE) assesses from a societal perspective the cost-effectiveness of an intensive 3-day cognitive theory-based intervention (CDT), compared to care-as-usual, in patients with relapsing remitting multiple sclerosis (RRMS) and low disability (Expanded Disability Status Scale [EDDS] score < 4.0).

Materials and methods: The trial of the EE was registered in the Dutch Trial Register: Trial NL5158 (NTR5298). The incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) was expressed in cost on the Control sub-scale of the Multiple Sclerosis Self-Efficacy Scale (MSSES) and the incremental cost-utility ratio (ICUR) in the cost per Quality Adjusted Life Years (QALY) using the EQ-5D-5L. Bootstrap, sensitivity, and sub-group analyses were performed to determine the robustness of the findings.

Results: The two groups of 79 patients were similar in baseline characteristics. The base case ICER is situated in the northeast quadrant (€72 (40.74/€2,948)) due to a higher MSSES Control score and higher societal costs in the CDT group. The ICUR is situated in the northwest (inferior) quadrant due to losses in QALY and higher societal costs for the CDT group (?0.02/€2,948). Overall, bootstrap, sensitivity, and sub-group analyses confirm the base case findings. However, when the SF-6D is used as a study outcome, there is a high probability that the ICUR is situated in the northeast quadrant.

Limitations: The relative short follow-up time (6?months) and the unexpected increase in MSSES Control in the control group.

Conclusions: When using the EQ-5D-5L to calculate a QALY, CDT is not a cost-effective alternative in comparison to care as usual. However, when using self-efficacy or SF-6D as outcomes, there is a probability that CDT is cost-effective. Based on the current results, CDT for patients with RRMS clearly show its potential. However, an extended follow-up for the economic evaluation is warranted before a final decision on implementation can be made.     

Review

Peter Young & Paul Reynolds, The Amnesia of Reform. A Review of Post‐Communist Privatization. London: Adam Smith Research Trust, 1994, 40 pp., p/b.

Michael Kaser, Privatization in the CIS. London: Royal Institute of International Affairs, 1995, 62 pp., p/b.