A TEST OF THE RISK PREMIUM HYPOTHESIS

Contrary to economic theory, there is international evidence that common stock returns and inflation are negatively related. This negative relationship is examined in this paper and the applicability of the risk premium hypothesis is tested. According to this hypothesis, an increase in unanticipated inflation causes the market risk premium to rise, which in turn lowers current stock prices. A model is developed and the effect of uncertain inflation on the market risk premium across four countries is tested empirically. Results indicate that the market risk premium is positively related to uncertain inflation.     

The Role of U.S. Market on International Risk‐Return Tradeoff Relations

We study the intertemporal risk‐return tradeoff relations based on returns from 18 international markets. We find striking new empirical evidence that the inclusion of U.S. market returns significantly changes the estimated risk‐return tradeoff relations in international markets from mostly negative to predominantly positive. Our results are consistent with the lead‐lag effect between U.S. and international markets in the sense of Rapach, Strauss and Zhou.     

Scale Efficiency in the New Zealand Dairy Industry: a Non-parametric Approach

The aim in this article is to measure the scale efficiency of the New Zealand dairy industry and to examine the relationship between farm size and technical efficiency. Data envelopment analysis (DEA) is applied to a sample of 264 dairy farms. The results suggest that 19 per cent of these farms are operating at optimal scale, 28 per cent at above optimal scale, and 53 per cent at below optimal scale. On average, the optimal size for New Zealand dairy farms is estimated at 83 hectares with a herd of 260 animals. Average technical efficiency is estimated at 89 per cent.     

Economic Targeting of Agricultural Beneficial Management Practices to Address Phosphorus Runoff in Manitoba

The mechanisms used to deliver agricultural beneficial management practices (BMPs) can influence the performance of these policies. Research has suggested that agri‐environmental instruments targeted based on specific economic or environmental characteristics can improve policy performance. Using a case study approach, we evaluate the relative performance of different mechanisms to target subsidized water retention pond BMPs to reduce phosphorus (P) runoff in an agriculture dominated subwatershed within the Lake Winnipeg watershed in southern Manitoba. The water retention pond BMPs were targeted based on estimated establishment costs (cost targeting), total phosphorus removal from surface water (benefit targeting), and pond‐specific benefit–cost ratios. The targeting was simulated using predictions of retention pond‐specific P removal from an adapted hydrology model and site‐specific pond construction and land opportunity costs assembled in a geographic information system database. Targeting of water retention pond BMPs has an impact on the cost effectiveness of the policy delivery with benefit–cost targeting being the most cost‐effective approach. Water retention ponds providing higher P removal at lower cost were smaller in size and on land previously used for the production of lower value crops. Le ciblage économique des pratiques de gestion bénéfiques en agriculture pour remédier au ruissellement du phosphore au Manitoba Les mécanismes utilisés pour livrer des pratiques de gestion bénéfiques (PGB) peuvent influencer la performance de ces politiques. Des études suggèrent que le ciblage d'instruments agroenvironnementaux basé sur des caractéristiques économiques ou environnementales précises peut améliorer la performance des politiques. Au moyen d'études de cas, nous évaluons la performance relative de divers mécanismes pour cibler les PGB des bassins de rétention d'eau subventionnés pour réduire le ruissellement de phosphore (P) dans un sous‐bassin du bassin du Lac Winnipeg au sud du Manitoba. Les PGB du bassin de rétention des eaux ont été ciblées en fonction des coûts estimés d'établissement (ciblage des coûts), de l′élimination totale du phosphore de la surface de l'eau (ciblage des bénéfices), et des ratios avantages‐coûts liés au bassin. Le ciblage fut simulé au moyen de prédictions du taux de suppression de P spécifique à chaque bassin de rétention obtenues à partir d'une adaptation d'un modèle hydrologique et d'une base de données d'un système d'information géographique (SIG) contenant les sites de chaque bassin de rétention et le coût d'opportunité du terrain. Le ciblage des PGB des bassins de rétention d'eau a un impact sur la rentabilité de la mise en ?uvre de politiques, le ciblage coût‐avantages étant l'approche la plus rentable. Les bassins de rétention d'eau ayant le plus haut taux d'élimination de P à moindre coût s'avéraient plus petits et sur des terrains ayant servi, auparavant, à la production de cultures de moindre valeur.     

Examining Organic Food Purchases and Preferences Within Jordan

Continuing economic development in Jordan provides potential food marketing opportunities as a new group of prospective value-added food product consumers emerges. The growing demand for high-value foods such as organically produced items also provides a new potential value-added market for Jordanian farmers. No studies to our knowledge have examined consumer preferences toward organic food items within Jordan. This study provides an initial attempt to fill this knowledge gap by examining the market for organic food items from a demand perspective in order to increase the knowledge available to Jordanian farmers, food processors, and retailers.     

Policy preferences of experts seeking to raise and stabilise farm incomes in the Eastern Gangetic Plains

Poverty is endemic in the highly populated Eastern Gangetic Plains where agriculture is critical to more than half the population. However, the mechanisms to support agriculture for development are contested. For example, some have advocated a strong role for government support and assistance due to market weaknesses, while others have promoted the need for more market-oriented approaches. We use an elicitation process focussed on expert policymaking communities, employing stated preference techniques to explore these options. Differences in perceptions about the effectiveness of policies and their delivery are reported between countries, while also empirically examining the influence of the respondents' organisational background. The results show support for policies that improve farmers' access to inputs, especially when delivered by private sector actors. The research provides an important contribution to the literature on policies for agricultural development.     

Buffett’s alpha: further explanations from a behavioral value investing perspective

Warren Buffett has had extraordinary success as an investor, but there is no agreement as to why. Some academic researchers attribute his performance to mere luck. Frazzini et al. (Financ Anal J 74(4):35–55, 2018), concluded that his alpha is due to leveraging safe, high-quality, and cheap stocks. However, there has been no analysis to date of Buffett’s performance from a behavioral perspective. We argue that Buffett’s success is partly due to qualitative and psychological factors, including tenacity, patience, avoidance of overconfidence, organizational culture, and the reputation effect. Using information from shareholder letters, writings, interviews, and speeches by Buffett and his colleague Charlie Munger, we demonstrate how such psychological factors, together with the quantitative findings of Frazzini et al., render a more complete and satisfying explanation of Buffett’s alpha.

     

Credit constraints and smallholder dairy production in the East African highlands: application of a switching regression model

Accurate assessment of farmers' credit constraint condition is important in order to understand the circumstances under which credit would have its greatest impact. In this study a switching regression model was used to determine the impact of credit on smallholder dairy farms in the East African highlands using farm level data from Ethiopia and Kenya. Farmers were classified as credit constrained or credit non-constrained based on their responses from the farm level surveys. No consistent relationship was found between farmers' credit constraint condition and their borrowing status. Most of the variation in milk output per farm was explained by the number of crossbred milking cows in the dairy herd. As credit is likely to facilitate investment in crossbred dairy cows it will have substantial impacts on smallholder dairy farms especially if it is targeted to credit constrained farms.