Reconciling introspective utility with revealed preference: Experimental arguments based on prospect theory

In an experiment, choice-based (revealed-preference) utility of money is derived from choices under risk, and choiceless (non-revealed-preference) utility from introspective strength-of-preference judgments. The well-known inconsistencies of risky utility under expected utility are resolved under prospect theory, yielding one consistent cardinal utility index for risky choice. Remarkably, however, this cardinal index also agrees well with the choiceless utilities, suggesting a relation between a choice-based and a choiceless concept. Such a relation implies that introspective judgments can provide useful data for economics, and can reinforce the revealed-preference paradigm. This finding sheds new light on the classical debate on ordinal versus cardinal utility.     

巴菲特退出了,你呢?

"股神"巴菲特卖出中国股票的做法显然并未博得所有人的认同。前不久,巴菲特将仍有很大获利后劲的中石油股票脱手的举动引起外界的极大关注。上周他在中国对媒体表示,投资中国股票的人应保持谨慎。     

Case study—Embodied virtual agents: An analysis on reasons for failure

Despite very optimistic academic and professional literatures, embodied virtual agents (EVA) on commercial websites do not seem to keep all their promises. An update in December 2009 of a benchmark led by OrangeLab in 2007 on embodied agents displayed on French websites reveals that more than 60% of them have actually disappeared. This case study deals with understanding the disappearance of embodied virtual agents thanks to a literature review, a benchmark of 80 agents on French commercial websites and an analysis of experts' in-depth-interviews. This work identifies a series of common errors in the agents design – namely, appearance inadequacy and lack of intelligence and autonomy – that creates a gap between consumers' expectations and agents' performance explaining agents' lack of success. As a conclusion, this case study gives practitioners actionable advices to design future agents by highlighting the characteristics of the ideal virtual sales agent (VSA).     

The Role of Credit in the 2007–09 Great Recession

This paper examines the financial crisis of 2007/9 and the downturn in the U.S. We argue that effective demand over the 2001?C2006 expansion was maintained by credit. The role of credit in a Vector Error Correction Model and Granger-causality between aggregate spending, credit, disposable income, and profits are examined. We show that credit itself is determined by factors outside the circular flow of income. The results raise new hypotheses about the crucial relationships in macroeconomics that sustain aggregate spending. We then compute the generalized impulse responses in the VECM to demonstrate the severity of the downturn and show that legislative changes that dismantled the restrictions placed on the financial sector and the consequent structural changes after 1980 enabled the growth of new debt instruments and credit. The overexpansion of credit when profits and house prices were declining in 2005/06 and informational asymmetries on the quality of credit and its sudden withdrawal in 2007 paralyzed the economy and led to the Great Recession.     

Developing the e-commerce sector for the fishery industry: What business are we really in?

In this study, we use the theory of the marketing firm to explain marketing relationships between consumers and firms selling fish in the context of developing the e-commerce sector for the fishery industry. We use a unique dataset composed of quantitative and qualitative data to provide a behavioral economic analysis and interpretation. The results reveal interdependent managerial and consumer behavioral relationships, indicating the presence of bilateral contingencies. The results also provide some indication of the theory of transaction cost, where cost-intensive activities are likely to be internalized within marketing firms selling fish.     

The persistence of profits of banks in Africa

This paper analyses the profit persistence of African banking sector, focusing on the role of the level of competition and banks earnings management. We apply Markov chain to analyse the extent and mobility of profit persistence, dynamic auto regressive model to assess the speed of convergence and the quantile regression technique to examine the determinants of profit persistence of banks in Africa. The results show a high level of profit persistence and relatively low speed of convergence. There is also evidence that regulation and banks earnings management affect both the level and persistence of banks profitability. We also find that competition as well as 2007/2008 financial crisis reduce the level and the speed of profit persistence.