A Multi-Objective Risk-Based Game Theoretic Approach to Reservoir Operation Policy in Potential Future Drought Condition

In this paper, by using the concept of Conditional Value at Risk (CVaR), a Leader-Follower game (LFG) based multi-objective optimization model is developed to determine the optimum 12-month operation policy of a reservoir in potential future dry periods. The minimization of CVaRs of storage loss and agricultural and environmental deficits along with maximization of planned allocation to agricultural sector are considered as leader’s objectives, while the followers try to maximize their share of water rights using Nash bargaining (NB) method. This framework is then used to model the operation policy of Dorudzan basin in Fars province, southwestern Iran. Water demand and daily climate data in the period of 2003 to 2015 for this basin, as well as future projections from fifteen IPCC-AR4 global circulation models (GCMs) for 2018–2030 under A2, B1 and A1B emission scenarios are considered to evaluate future dam operation policies. Future projections are downscaled using the LARS-WG model, which then feeds the HMETS watershed model to simulate the corresponding reservoir inflow time-series. Thereafter, three-hundred 12-month rainfall, evaporation and inflow time series with least inflow volume are used as input for the optimization model, which is solved using NSGA-II and GA algorithms. The results show while the model can determine the operation policy that keeps the associated risks in the acceptable range, it can satisfy the followers demands with respect to the available resources. The results also show that the agricultural sector of the study area can be hugely affected by potential future droughts.

     

Trend Analysis in Reference Evapotranspiration Using Mann-Kendall and Spearman’s Rho Tests in Arid Regions of Iran

In this research, temporal trends of reference evapotranspiration (ET0) values were investigated in arid regions of Iran. For this purpose, meteorological observations collected from 11 high quality meteorological sites over a 41-year period (1965–2005) were used and statistically significant ET0 trends in the monthly, seasonal and annual time basis were detected using nonparametric Mann-Kendall (MK) and Spearman’s Rho (SR) tests at the 5% significant level. To eliminate the effect of serial correlation on the test results, the Trend Free Pre-Whitening (TFPW) approach was applied. The results of this study indicated that the ET0 trends for some cities were increasing (positive) however, for some sites, they showed decreasing (negative) trends. The most number of significant ET0 trends on a monthly time scale occurred at Birjand but no significant trend was observed at the Bandarabbas, Sabzevar and Semnan sites. On the annual time scale, Mashhad revealed the highest positive trend (7.5 mm per year). On the other hand, Esfahan showed the highest decreasing (negative) ET0 trend of about −6.38 mm per year. In general, the performances and abilities of the MK and SR tests were consistent at the verified significant level.