Vulnerability and industrial hazards in industrializing countries: an integrative approach

The extra vulnerability of industrializing countries to environmental problems and industrial accidents cannot be understood or solved by a ‘normal’ scientific analysis. Aspects of the social and institutional context must be included, through analyses based on post-normal science. The standard two-dimensional classification of PNS is modified to have axes ‘social ‘and institutional vulnerabilities’ and ‘complexity of technological hazards’. The analysis is mainly applied to the case of the relatively rare accidents with catastrophic potential. In these, the deaths per accident in India, Mexico and Brazil are much greater than in the industrialized countries. This discrepancy arises partly from location of such plants near residential communities for marginalized workers and their families. Other socio-political factors are relevant, as the role of these countries in the global production system, the enforcement of safety and planning laws, quality of housing, and lifestyle of residents. Reducing the vulnerability of industrializing countries will therefore require major social policies and a comprehension of the limits of the normal scientific and economic approaches to such problems.     

Evaluation of hydrological processes in a mountainous small basin using a quinone biomarker.

An applicability of quinone biomarker to the analysis of hillslope runoff was investigated. At first, quinone profiles of three streams as well as a hillslope runoff in a forested headwater catchment were compared. The quinone composition of hillslope runoff differed from others. Moreover, there were remarkable differences in quinone profile of hillslope runoff under different rainfall conditions. Then, the behavior of quinone biomarker during the increase and decrease of hillslope runoff after a rainfall event was examined. The fractional changes in Q-9 (H2), Q-10 (H2), Q-11, MK-6 and MK-10 suggested the effect of interflow.     

Copper and zinc removal from roof runoff: from research to full-scale adsorber systems.

Large, uncoated copper and zinc roofs cause environmental problems if their runoff is infiltrated into the underground or discharged into receiving waters. Since source control is not always feasible, barrier systems for efficient copper and zinc removal are recommended in Switzerland. During the last few years, research carried out in order to test the performance of GIH-calcite adsorber filters as a barrier system. Adsorption and mass transport processes were assessed and described in a mathematical model. However, this model is not suitable for practical design, because it does not give explicit access to design parameters such as adsorber diameter and adsorber bed depth. Therefore, for e.g. engineers, an easy to use design guideline for GIH-calcite adsorber systems was developed, mainly based on the mathematical model. The core of this guideline is the design of the depth of the GIH-calcite adsorber layer. The depth is calculated by adding up the GIH depth for sorption equilibrium and the depth for the mass transfer zone (MTZ). Additionally, the arrangement of other adsorber system components such as particle separation and retention volume was considered in the guideline. Investigations of a full-scale adsorber confirm the successful application of this newly developed design guideline for the application of GIH-calcite adsorber systems in practice.     

The role of interparticle forces in colloidal aggregates: local investigations and modelling of restructuring during filtration.

Industrial solid-liquid separation processes, such as pressure filtration or membrane processes, involve the application of pressure to suspensions. In response, some water is extracted, the suspension volume is reduced, and the dispersed aggregates start to form a network. In recent works, we aimed to make a prediction for the response of aggregates to stress which occurs during a filtration. We chose model systems made of aggregated silica nanoparticles. Some of these systems offer a strong resistance to applied stresses, and retain their permeability; others yield and collapse. We used small angle neutron scattering by which we can locally quantify the particle distribution withi the network to determine the processes by which particles reorganise during collapse: we found that reordering processes at the scale of 1 to 10 particle diameters control the course of collapse and the loss of permeability. Finally we constructed a numerical model for describing the processes by which colloidal aggregates are compressed. This model predicts that the response of such networks to pressure follows some scaling laws, which depend only on the elastic vs. dissipative nature of interparticle bonds.     

Quasi‐rational and ex ante price expectations in commodity supply models: an empirical analysis of the US broiler market

A statistically optimal inference about agents' ex ante price expectations within the US broiler market is derived using futures prices of related commodities along with a quasi‐rational forecasting regression equation. The modelling approach, which builds on a Hamilton‐type framework, includes endogenous production and allows expected cash price to be decomposed into anticipated and unanticipated components. We therefore infer the relative importance of various informational sources in expectation formation. Results show that, in addition to the quasi‐rational forecast, the true supply shock, future prices, and ex post commodity price forecast errors have, at times, been influential in broiler producers' price expectations. Copyright © 2003 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Additive and Multiplicative Uncertainty Revisited: What Explains the Contrasting Biases?

above the certainty level while for additive uncertainty the price should be lower than the certainty level. This note gives an intuitive explanation for the result after first presenting a parsimonious review of the two models. We also discuss which, if either, of the two models is more realistic. Received December 14, 2001; revised version received July 16, 2002 Published online: April 30, 2003 We thank referees for helpful comments. Ciaran Driver would like to acknowledge the research facilities from ANU, Canberra for their help in writing this paper.     

Crossing spatial analyses and livestock economics to understand deforestation processes in the Brazilian Amazon: the case of São Félix do Xingú in South Pará

The Amazon is the largest tropical forest area on Earth, and has been undergoing rapid deforestation for the last four decades. In the Brazilian Amazon, large‐scale pasture for cattle ranching and soybean production are the main land uses, leading to a yearly deforestation rate of 0.5%. These conversions are mostly located in frontier areas distributed along the so‐called “arc of deforestation”. Within this large zone, various land use change processes are interacting through several modes of land valuation and organisation. From several case studies in the State of Pará (Brazil), the current project aims at analysing how landscape dynamics are related to infrastructure development, ecological conditions, zoning policies and to the evolution and the organisation of the production, consumption and marketing chains of livestock products. This paper presents the results for one test site, the region of São Félix do Xingú, South of Pará This region is the focus of land speculation, cattle expansion, and deforestation. Road construction, investments in electrical energy, financial credit for cattle, and the land reform policies have all fuelled this process. All these factors make this region one of the most dynamic agricultural frontiers in the Brazilian Amazon. The main objective of the paper is to improve our understanding of deforestation processes by crossing spatial analyses and 1ivestock economics.studies, and to characterise the role and impact of various natural and anthropic factors in the location and development of the main types of farmers, and their policy implications.     

Measuring the Impact of Regulation: A Study of Canadian Basic Cable Television

We evaluate the appropriateness of regulation within the Canadian cable television industry by applying both parametric and non-parametric approachesto measure scale efficiency. Although we begin with a sample offering adequatedegrees of freedom for parametric estimation, important policy issues lead us toconsider further estimation over sub-samples. Since some of these sub-samplesare small enough that parametric models cannot guarantee reliable estimates, weobtain production characteristics non-parametrically through data envelopmentanalysis. The nonparametric results for scale efficiency support the parametricresults. We find evidence against a natural monopoly argument that might havejustified continuation of the mandated monopolization of Canadian cable televisionservice. By the end of the sample period, there were no longer substantial economiesof scale in most relevant markets.