Drama theory and its relation to game theory. Part 1: Dramatic resolution vs. Rational solution

Drama theory differs from game theory in that it does not regard actors' preferences and perceived opportunities as fixed, but as capable of being changed by the actors themselves under the pressure of pre-play negotiations. Thus characters in a drama undergo change and development. A manyperson, multiphase theory of dramatic transformation is presented, showing how thecore of a drama (in the sense of game theory) is transformed by the interaction between the characters into a strict, strong equilibrium to which they all aspire. The process of dramatic transformation is shown to be driven by actors' reactions to various paradoxes of rationality; it is proved that when all these paradoxes have been overcome, a full dramatic resolution has been reached, satisfying actors' emotional and moral demands, as well as the demands of rationality.     

Drama theory and its relation to game theory. Part 2: Formal model of the resolution process

In a drama, characters' preferences and options change under the pressure of pre-play negotiations. Thus they undergo change and development. A formal model of dramatic transformation is presented that shows how the core of a drama is transformed by the interaction among the characters into a strict, strong equilibrium to which they all aspire. The process is seen to be driven by actors' reactions to various paradoxes of rationality.     

Did the Federal Crop Insurance Reform Act Alter Farm Enterprise Diversification?

We estimate how much United States farms changed enterprise diversification in response to a marked increase in crop insurance coverage brought about by the 1994 Federal Crop Insurance Reform Act, which substantially increased insurance subsidies. The analysis exploits farm‐level panel census data to compare farm‐specific changes in enterprise diversification over time. By examining diversification decisions of the same farms over time, we control for time‐invariant unobserved individual heterogeneity. We then use pooled cross‐sectional data from the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) Agricultural Resource Management Survey to estimate the relationship between farm diversification and average returns. We find that the insurance subsidies caused a modest increase in enterprise specialisation and production efficiency. Estimated efficiency gains are far less than the subsidies.     

Rural poverty in Mexico: assets and livelihood strategies among the Mayas of Yucatán

Understanding poverty and sustainability needs livelihood studies that acknowledge heterogeneity at the community and household level. This is particularly true for Latin America where inequality and ethnicity are important aspects of poverty and sustainability. This paper is a detailed examination of the natural resources, socio-economic assets and livelihood strategies of two Mayan communities of the Mexican State of Yucatán. There were three fundamental objectives: to elucidate the people's perceptions of poverty, to analyse their resource use and livelihood strategies, and to suggest ways in which access to markets can reduce poverty and enhance sustainable development. Using qualitative and quantitative methodologies, the dominance of certain successful strategies are made clear. First, milpa—the traditional system of maize production—is a way of life for the Mayas. Secure access to maize-producing land is a valuable asset, partly because it also attracts government subsidies. Second, ownership of small livestock is also part of Mayan life. Ownership of other assets such as beehives gives access to (relatively) lucrative product markets. Third, active agribusiness marketing also requires assets: ownership of transport services; finance to assemble and sell products such as forest fruits, honey and maize; business skills and an ability to create commercial linkages to traders. Appropriate interventions for different wealth groups are suggested to enhance sustainable development of the communities.     

The spatial externalities of car-based worktravel emissions in greater London, 1981 and 1991

This research considers vehicle emissions from travel to work trips by car within and through the localities of London. Specific focus is placed on the residential origins of the trips and the analysis is based on 1981 and 1991 Census travel to work data. London is divided into some 24 one kilometre concentric ring bands and the number of vehicle kilometres travelled within each of these is calculated from ward to ward origin-destination worktravel movements by car. The spatial distribution of vehicle emissions from the perspective of the source origin of this type of urban environmental external disbenefit is derived. The research points to the highest concentrations of emissions located firmly in the centre of the city and this confirms scientific survey evidence of air quality. The results also confirm that in Central and Inner London the largest proportionate contribution to total emissions arises from vehicles originating from residences in Outer London.     

中国失衡时代是否已终结

过去十年,全球性不均衡问题逐渐成为各国宏观经济政策的中心议题。本文重点分析了当前中国的外部失衡问题,研究了2008年后促使中国经常账户盈余下降的影响因素,预测了中国外部顺差的走向。本文认为,未来几年中国的经常账户盈余将保持适度。外部失衡不能反映当今中国国际收支的主要特征。随着中国国内经济越来越依赖投资的拉动,内部失衡问题将愈发明显。